Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- May 15 Intelligence Summary: Riley Risk warns clients of possible fall of 2 cities in eastern Ukraine amid push for ceasefire and peace talks
Just The Facts:
- Russia forms peace talks team for Ukraine: Putin's not included
- EU may temporarily reinstate pre-war agri trade restrictions on Ukraine, sources say
- Cold storage has fallen to 13% of Kyiv warehouse sector due to war damage, but reconstruction has started, CBRE says
- Ukraine's Astarta gets $40 million from IFC to build soy protein concentrate plant
- France pledges €10 million for EBRD's Chernobyl restoration account
- Switzerland to fund Ukraine's EBRD share subscription with €6.4 million
- EBRD lends up to €10 million to city of Lviv to ensure essential municipal services
- Switzerland, Malta contribute to Council of Europe's action plan for Ukraine
Here's What They Think:
- The Guardian: Ukraine's resilience grows amid shifting Western support and European realignment
- The Washington Post: Trump's deals prioritize optics over outcomes, but show signs of strategic retreat
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine's gas storage tops 6 bcm but remains at 11-year low as injection season gains momentum, according to ExPro Daily Gas.
The Rebuilder's Social:
- AmCham launches web page on reintegrating veterans, The Saratoga Foundation analyses the important of the Kinburn Spit and the Ukraine Climate Office extolls the virtues of biomethane.
Dear readers,
In URN's Partner Program, we ally with reputable companies who devote their expertise to informing investors about the risks and possibilities in Ukraine. In the legal and regulatory landscape, logistics, tax and accounting, agriculture, and many other areas, we partner with firms who, above all, help inform our readers.
Every Thursday in our Partner Program, we bring you the you the weekly intelligence summary by Riley Risk, the premier security risk advisory firm for complex environments.
The report is crafted exclusively for Ukraine Rebuild Newswire for the purpose of keeping companies, NGOs, agencies and other organizations aware of the physical security risks of operating in Ukraine.
The Intelligence Summary typically measures about 20 pages, with breakdowns by politics, military aid, by region and more. Below are a few of the highlights of the latest report, edited by URN.
Riley Risk warns clients of possible fall of 2 cities in eastern Ukraine amid push for ceasefire and peace talks
Intelligence Summary, May 15
Current Regional Status Overview
| Region | Current Risk Level | Change Factor | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | MODERATE | Degrading | Incursion into Sumy Oblast |
| East | HIGH | Degrading | Tactical Disadvantages / Land |
| South | HIGH | Degrading | RU Offensive ZP / KHER |
| West | MODERATE | No Change | Missile / Drone Strikes |
Current Infrastructure Status
| Energy | Food/Water | Medical | Communications | Transportation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE |
Infrastructure Notes: Limited infrastructure interruptions other than power outages.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is deteriorating, even as leaders in Ukraine, the US, Europe and Russia manoeuvre around potential peace talks. The cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast remain under severe pressure with a high likelihood of territorial changes within 1-3 months.
Organizations with operations in the eastern sectors of Ukraine should accelerate contingency planning and review evacuation triggers, as the situation degrades across the eastern regions.
Infrastructure remains generally stable, with occasional power cuts, but Kherson has suffered increased civilian targeting .
Western and central regions remain stable for operations.
Critical Risk Zones:
● Kostyantynopil direction – Unstable and Russian forces pushing West.
● Chasiv Yar: High combat activity, likely to fall within 1-2 months
● Kherson City: Increased civilian targeting, daily shelling
● Pokrovsk direction - Highly under threat, but for the moment stabilised
● Sivers’k direction - Future intent of RU forces: Possibly to envelop the surrounding area.
Elevated Risk Sectors:
● Pokrovsk: Russian encirclement attempts ongoing
● Kupyansk: Supply hub under pressure
● Zaporizhzhia: Military buildup, offensive operations have now started
Stable Sectors:
● Western regions: Normal operations possible
● Kharkiv: Static front, limited changes
● Central regions: Routine operations continuing
For the full Riley Risk report, download here:
Contacts
For questions related to daily news and story suggestions, feel free to message newsroom chief Valentina Bajic at valentina@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
For sponsorships, the Tips for Investors column, and other general matters, email founder Adam Brown at adam.brown@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
Now moving on to today's headlines …
Russia forms peace talks team for Ukraine: Putin's not included
Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved the composition of a negotiating team for peace talks with Ukraine, expected to be held on Thursday in Istanbul, with himself not included.
The delegation will be headed by Putin's aide Vladimir Medinsky, the Kremlin said in a press release late on Wednesday.
Other members include Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Igor Kostyukov, and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.
Putin also approved a list of experts for the negotiation, as per the statement. On Thursday, the Kremlin said Putin met with the negotiations team to prepare for the talks before the delegation heads to Istanbul.
On Sunday, Putin proposed that Russia and Ukraine resume "without any preconditions" direct talks that he said Kyiv "interrupted" at the end of 2022. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by saying he was ready to meet with Putin for direct peace negotiations with Putin.
In his nightly address to the nation on Wednesday, Zelensky said that "while the whole world awaits a simple 'yes' from Putin in response to the offer of direct talks – he continues to strike Ukraine."
Zelensky also said that he was waiting to see who would attend the talks in Istanbul from Russia, to then decide what steps Ukraine will take.
US President Donald Trump, who said earlier he was considering joining the potential talks in Istanbul and is currently in Qatar, stated on Thursday he would go to the talks in Turkey on Friday "if it is appropriate," as quoted by Reuters.
"I was thinking about going, but it is very tough... If something happened I would go on Friday if it was appropriate. But we have people right now negotiating, I just hope Russia and Ukraine are able to do something. It has to stop," Trump said.
EU may temporarily reinstate pre-war agri trade restrictions on Ukraine, sources say
The European Union (EU) could temporarily reintroduce tariffs and quotas in its agricultural trade with Ukraine if a new deal is not ready to start when the war-related tariff breaks end on June 5, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed diplomats.
The European Commission recommended a transitional phase lasting up to seven months, or ending sooner if a new agreement is implemented, according to Reuters.
The temporary suspension of tariffs and quotas, or so-called Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM), was granted to Ukraine by the EU after Russia's full-scale invasion to help the country manage higher costs of its exports through the bloc.
Since then, EU farmers and a number of EU governments, including Poland, France, Hungary, and Slovakia, have been protesting the move, saying it hurts local producers by allowing for cheap Ukrainian products to flood the market.
Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said on Wednesday he was in talks with the EU to extend the ATM, as quoted by Reuters. The Commission, however, told the publication that it has no such plans.
"The Commission is not planning to propose an extension of the ATMs ... because we are currently working on the review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Trade Area (DCFTA)," the EC spokesperson told Reuters. "In this review process, our priority will be the gradual compliance of Ukraine with EU production standards, and a safeguard clause that could be triggered to prevent any disturbance to the EU and Ukrainian markets."
Ukrainian officials and farming organizations have cautioned that allowing the current emergency regulations to expire without an alternative plan could result in a €3.3 billion loss in exports and a 2.5% decline in gross domestic product, Politico reported earlier.
Last month, Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval stated that Ukraine and the EU will not return to pre-war agricultural trade conditions after the ATM ends, but will work on a compromise solution, noting that 52% of Ukrainian agricultural exports are directed to European markets.
Cold storage has fallen to 13% of Kyiv warehouse sector due to war damage, but reconstruction has started, CBRE says
Damage to Kyiv's warehouse sector from the ongoing war has weighed particularly heavily on the cold storage sector, while demand for such facilities remains high, according to research by CBRE Ukraine.
Cold storage warehousing accounted for about 15% of the Kyiv warehousing market before the war, but that percentage has fallen to 13% as of the start of this year, the commercial real estate services firm said.
Meanwhile, rental rates for temperature-controlled storage have risen 15%, far above the market average, to an effective rental rate of about $9.2 per square meter per month, the firm said in a press release.
"At the same time, the activation of demand from businesses, in particular pharmaceutical companies, FMCG manufacturers and logistics operators, clearly signals the need for modern, technologically equipped cold storage facilities," said the release.
However, developers are responding to the need for cold warehousing, CBRE said, with new projects expected to come onto the market in coming years, including the reconstruction of a 55,000 square meter destroyed RLC Logistic Company warehouse to finish next year, and the reconstruction, slated to finish in 2027, of a 90,000 square meter facility for the Aurora discount chain.
Ukraine's Astarta gets $40 million from IFC to build soy protein concentrate plant
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) said on Wednesday it will invest $40 million in Ukraine's agro-industrial holding company Astarta to support the construction of the country's first soy protein concentrate plant.
The investment, which is expected to generate $680 million in foreign exchange earnings, contribute $116.5 million to the economy each year, and create about 3,000 jobs, is in line with an up to $80 million financing package approved by IFC's Board of Directors on April 1, the IFC said in a press release.
Expanding exports of high-value-added products like soy protein concentrate is key to the long-term growth of Ukraine, which is well-placed to meet rising global demand for these products, the IFC noted.
The project will support farmers by broadening the supplier network and boosting local purchases. The factory will also produce soybean molasses, a byproduct used to fuel its own biogas needs.
The IFC financing package includes a $27 million loan from IFC's own account and a $13 million concessional loan from the Dutch government. The support is backed by guarantees from the European Commission's Ukraine Investment Framework and the Netherlands, as part of IFC’s Economic Resilience Action (ERA) Program for Ukraine, as per the statement.
In March, Astarta announced plans to invest $76 million to build a multi-seed crushing facility in the western Ukrainian region of Khmelnytsky.
Astarta, with 212,000 hectares under management, is Ukraine's largest sugar processor, with up to 500,000 tons of sugar production per year. It also produces about 119,000 tons of milk and processes 230,000 tons of soybeans, according to its website.
France pledges €10 million for EBRD's Chernobyl restoration account
France has pledged to provide €10 million for the International Chernobyl Cooperation Account, managed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), to help restore safety at the site.
The funding will be used to repair the New Safe Confinement (NSC), a structure built to contain radioactive material from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, after a Russian drone attack in February, the EBRD said in a press release on Wednesday.
"French companies played a crucial role in building the NSC, and we hope that this first contribution, which comes only three months after the drone attack, should unlock further pledges from partner countries," said Pierre Heilbronn, Special Envoy of the French President for Ukraine's Relief and Reconstruction.
The International Chernobyl Cooperation Account, established by the EBRD in November 2020 at Ukraine's request, initially aimed to develop a comprehensive plan for Chernobyl.
Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the account's scope has expanded to include measures for restoring nuclear safety, security, and decommissioning capabilities within the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
The account, which currently holds some €25 million in donor funds, now also supports nuclear safety initiatives across Ukraine's nuclear sector, subject to contributor approval.
Last month, Ukraine's Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources said that Ukraine and France are exploring opportunities to invest in renewable energy projects in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
Switzerland to fund Ukraine's EBRD share subscription with €6.4 million
Switzerland has agreed to pay €6.4 million on Ukraine's behalf for its subscription to extra shares in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), under a newly signed memorandum of understanding between the two countries.
The memorandum was signed on the sidelines of the EBRD's 34th annual meeting in London, Ukraine's Finance Ministry said in a press release on Wednesday.
In late 2023, the EBRD Board of Governors approved a €4 billion capital increase, allocating Ukraine 3,227 additional shares worth €32.27 million. The Finance Ministry said that Switzerland's support is non-repayable and does not add to Ukraine's state debt.
"Ukraine's subscription to the additional shares will preserve its current shareholding percentage in the EBRD’s capital structure. This allows Ukraine to maintain its influence in the Bank's decision-making, particularly regarding financing for Ukraine's needs during the ongoing war with russia," the statement read.
Since the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, Switzerland has provided Ukraine with €935 million in aid - €720 million in humanitarian support and €215 million in financial assistance, including $30 million in direct budget grants, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
EBRD lends up to €10 million to city of Lviv to ensure essential municipal services
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it is extending a senior loan of up to €10 million to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. The funding aims to support the continuity of essential municipal services and help the city cope with the ongoing impacts of the war.
The European Union (EU) is backing the EBRD's loan with a 25% first-loss risk cover through its Municipal, Infrastructure and Industrial Resilience Programme, part of the Ukraine Investment Framework, according to a press release from the EBRD.
This initiative is designed to mitigate war-related risks and support both emergency relief and long-term reconstruction across sectors such as industry, energy, and municipal infrastructure. Through this program, the EU will channel a total of €150 million in guarantees, €25 million in investment grants, and €7.5 million in technical assistance via the EBRD.
The ongoing war has caused economic disruption, displacement, and labour market instability, creating risks to the continuity of essential infrastructure services in city, according to the press release. These risks could impact the delivery of critical services necessary for Lviv's economic resilience and private sector activity.
The EBRD's loan will provide emergency liquidity to key municipal operators, including transport company Lvivelectrotrans, waste management company Zelene Misto, and water utility Lvivvodokanal. The funding aims to address urgent liquidity needs, ensuring the continued delivery of essential public services.
In addition, the EBRD will offer technical assistance through its Human Capital Response for Ukraine programme to support the Lviv Veterans Centre. The lender will help strengthen the Centre's legal, educational, and administrative services, delivered in cooperation with local partners, to better assist veterans and their families.
Switzerland, Malta contribute to Council of Europe's action plan for Ukraine
Switzerland has made a voluntary contribution of close to €1.5 million, and Malta has contributed €100,000 to the Council of Europe's 2023-2026 action plan for Ukraine.
The agreement with Switzerland was signed on Wednesday, and with Malta a day earlier, the Council said in two press releases.
The "Resilience, Recovery, and Reconstruction" action plan aims to help Ukraine align with European standards in human rights, democracy, and the rule of law amid the ongoing war with Russia. It also focuses on supporting Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction while addressing its urgent needs.
The overall budget for the four-year cooperation framework is estimated at €50 million. This is the largest-ever budget of a Council of Europe action plan for a country.
The Guardian: Ukraine's resilience grows amid shifting Western support and European realignment
As Ukraine faces continued Russian attacks, the mood in Kyiv is more resolute than a year ago, reflecting the country's growing military self-sufficiency and realistic expectations about the war's trajectory, Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, part-time professor at the European University Institute, wrote in an opinion for The Guardian. The article argues that a lasting peace remains distant, and Europe must prioritize strengthening Ukraine’s defenses now, not just plan for post-war scenarios.
The Ukrainian defense industry—particularly in drone and artillery production—is expanding rapidly, and Kyiv's understanding of modern warfare is unmatched in Europe. However, despite growing self-reliance, Ukraine remains deeply reliant on US intelligence and air defense support, even as frustration grows over Washington's slow and politically unstable backing, especially under US President Donald Trump's influence.
The Washington Post: Trump's deals prioritize optics over outcomes, but show signs of strategic retreat
US President Donald Trump has recently announced a series of international deals focused on trade and security, including tariff reductions with China and the UK, a minerals agreement with Ukraine, and a pause in military strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Pulitzer Prize finalist in biography, wrote in opinion for The Washington Post. While these deals have been promoted as major achievements, many address challenges created by earlier US policies, such as the tariff hikes and regional military actions.
Boot noted that US President Donald Trump secured a diluted minerals deal with Ukraine, dropping his demand for aid repayment in favor of a pledge to share future mineral revenues with a joint US–Ukraine fund. However, with mining years away and political shifts likely, the deal's impact is minimal—serving more as a tool to keep Trump engaged than a meaningful policy win.
Ukraine's gas storage tops 6 bcm but remains at 11-year low as injection season gains momentum
Ukraine's underground gas storage (UGS) reserves reached 6.02 billion cubic meters (bcm) as of May 11, according to data from ExPro Daily Gas. This marks a critical milestone in the ongoing injection season, though current storage levels remain historically low. UGS facilities are filled to just 19.4% of capacity—down 31.7% or 2.79 bcm compared to the same date in 2024. This year's reserves are the lowest recorded for May 11 in at least the past 11 years.
Active gas reserves, which are immediately available for withdrawal by UGS service customers, amount to approximately 1.28 bcm, the report said. Despite the low base, Ukraine continues to inject gas steadily. Daily injection volumes totaled 26 million cubic meters (mcm) on May 11. More than 350 mcm have been injected since the beginning of May, reflecting a 33% year-on-year increase in injection activity.
The 2025 injection season began on April 17—over two weeks later than in 2024 due to colder weather in early April. Since then, 610 mcm of gas has been pumped into storage, including 258 mcm in April alone. ExPro estimates that gas reserves could reach nearly 6.6 bcm by the end of May, assuming continued imports at the current rate of around 14 mcm per day and a gradual recovery in domestic gas production, which had been disrupted by Russian attacks earlier this year.
Looking ahead, Ukraine is targeting storage levels comparable to last year's pre-winter reserves. In early November 2024, storage volumes stood at 12.92 bcm. To reach a similar figure by the start of the 2025–26 heating season, Ukraine needs to inject an additional 6.3 bcm between June and October, according ExPro. While a portion of this will be supplied by local production, 3 to 3.5 bcm will have to be covered through imports, making continued international supply and infrastructure repair key priorities in the months ahead.
Social Media Posts
Biomethane Possibilites Considered
The Ukraine Climate Office, an organization co-funded by the European Union and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, promoted an article about the advantages of biomethane for Ukraine's energy resilience and climate goals.
"The development of the biomethane sector offers a double benefit: it contributes directly to restoring energy capacities damaged by missile strikes, and at the same time it supports the creation of a new, integrated and decentralized energy system of Ukraine based on renewable energy sources. Such a system is significantly less vulnerable to future missile strikes," the article says.
Digital Transformation Praised
Valeriya Ionan, deputy minister for Eurointegration at Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation, promoted an article she wrote explaining how the government "didn’t just digitize services — we reinvented what a government can be."
"Ukraine's network of Chief Digital Transformation Officers across government created accountability and momentum. Europe could benefit from similar cross-cutting roles with clear mandates and authority to drive change."
AmCham Launches Page on Reintegrating Veterans
The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine said it just launched "a dedicated new page on our website focused on Veterans’ Reintegration."
"🔎 On this page, you’ll find:
- the latest news & updates on reintegration efforts;
- highlights from recent events & upcoming meetings’ announcements;
- information about our partners supporting veterans for years."
'The Struggle for the Kinburn Spit'
Glen Howard, president of The Saratoga Foundation, promoted an article called Unlocking the Dnipro: The Struggle for the Kinburn Spit, which highlights to strategic importane of the sandbar that "separates the Dnipro-Bug estuary in the northern corner of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and guards the entrance to the Dnipro River."
"In strictly naval terms, the Kinburn Spit is what is often referred to as a maritime chokepoint, a strategically important passage of water through which large volumes of international maritime traffic must pass. Whoever controls the Kinburn Spit in essence determines what ships and naval traffic can enter the 1,367-mile Dnipro River," the article says.
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
