Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- Riley Risk recommends companies in east prepare contingency plans amid heavy fighting, possible Ukrainian territory loss
Just The Facts:
- Ukraine to ask EU to delay introducing carbon border tax, trade envoy says
- Ukraine's finance minister discusses reconstruction opportunities with Canadian investors
- Ukraine, Poland partner on regional policy, recovery, EU integration
- Polish logistics service provider Rohlig SUUS opens subsidiary in Ukraine
Here's What They Think:
- Politico: Putin is ready for a forever war in Ukraine
- Atlantic Council: US-Ukraine minerals deal combines economic cooperation with security interests
Sober Second Thought:
- SEPA membership could save up to €100 million annually to Ukrainian businesses and citizens, study finds
The Rebuilder's Social:
- BDO Ukraine launches guide for UK investors to the reconstruction and Innovo Group hosts UK businesses and politicians. The government launches the GovTech pulse recurring survey and lauds businesses operating near the front line.
Dear readers,
In URN's Partner Program, we ally with reputable companies who devote their expertise to informing investors about the risks and possibilities in Ukraine. In the legal and regulatory landscape, logistics, tax and accounting, agriculture, and many other areas, we partner with firms who, above all, help inform our readers.
Every Thursday, we bring you the you the weekly intelligence summary by Riley Risk, the premier security risk advisory firm for complex environments, crafted exclusively for URN for the purpose of keeping companies, NGOs, agencies and other organizations aware of the physical security risks of operating in Ukraine.
For the full report, download here:
Below are some of the main charts:
Riley Risk warn clients in eastern Ukraine to accelerate contingency planning as fighting intensifies
Intelligence Summary, May 22
Current Regional Status Overview
| Region | Current Risk Level | Change Factor | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | MODERATE | Degrading | Incursion into Sumy Oblast |
| East | HIGH | Degrading | Tactical Disadvantages / Land |
| South | HIGH | Degrading | RU Offensive ZP / KHER |
| West | MODERATE | No Change | Missile / Drone Strikes |
Current Infrastructure Status
| Energy | Food/Water | Medical | Communications | Transportation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE |
Infrastructure Notes: Limited infrastructure interruptions other than power outages.
Critical Risk Zones:
● Kostyantynopil direction – Unstable and Russian forces pushing West.
● Chasiv Yar: High combat activity, likely to fall within 1-2 months
● Kherson City: Increased civilian targeting, daily shelling
● Pokrovsk direction - Highly under threat, but for the moment stabilised
● Sivers’k direction - Future intent of RU forces: Possibly to envelop the surrounding area.
Elevated Risk Sectors:
● Pokrovsk: Russian encirclement attempts ongoing
● Kupyansk: Supply hub under pressure
● Zaporizhzhia: Military buildup, offensive operations have now started
Stable Sectors:
● Western regions: Normal operations possible
● Kharkiv: Static front, limited changes
● Central regions: Routine operations continuing
Ukraine to ask EU to delay introducing carbon border tax, trade envoy says
Ukraine's Economy Ministry is preparing an official request to the European Commission to start formal talks on postponing the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for the war-torn country, The Odessa Journal reported on Wednesday, citing Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative Taras Kachka.
"The appeal is currently being prepared. In the coming months, we will work actively. Before this, we had been working for a long time with the European Commission on this issue, and we understand the process. Now we are moving to an active phase of work," The Odessa Journal quoted Kachka as saying at an event in Kyiv.
Ukraine plans to submit two requests to the EU: one for a general exemption and another specifically for the electricity sector, according to Kachka.
The CBAM is the EU's tool to "put a fair price" on carbon emissions generated during the production of carbon-intensive goods imported into the EU, while also promoting cleaner industrial practices in non-EU countries, according to the European Commission (EC).
The tax is currently in its transition period, which began Oct 1, 2023, and lasts until Jan 1, 2026. During this phase, companies are only required to report their carbon emissions.
According to a recent estimate from the steel industry consultancy GMK Center, the introduction of CBAM could lead to some $2.7 billion in investment losses and $4.7 billion in export losses for Ukraine between 2026 and 2030.
Ukraine's finance minister discusses reconstruction opportunities with Canadian investors
During a visit to Canada to attend a G7 meeting as a guest, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko met with Canadian businesses and took part in a roundtable with the country's leading pension and investment funds to discuss their potential involvement in Ukraine's reconstruction, Ukraine's Finance Ministry said on Wednesday.
Speaking to investors, Marchenko pointed out the key sectors with strong investment potential, the ministry said in a press release. "Key priorities include the defense and industrial complex, housing construction, modernization of energy infrastructure, the agricultural sector, logistics, and demining," the minister noted.
To ensure the effective implementation of recovery projects, Ukraine's Finance Ministry is launching a Public Investment Management (PIM) reform to create a clear and organized way of setting investment priorities, as per the statement. This reform aims to make the decision-making process more transparent and efficient.
In 2024, Ukraine's government approved a Single Project Pipeline that includes 789 projects worth a total of $57.8 billion. For 2025, funding of $5 billion is planned for 91 of these projects. Marchenko invited Canadian investors to take part in these efforts.
The discussion also covered ways to reduce risks, such as war risk insurance tools created with support from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Marchenko also mentioned that investment insurance from the Government of Canada could be another possible solution.
"I had the privilege with Sergii to meet a number of pension funds and a number of very important investors to look at what's going to come next. We thought also how we could work together eventually, to share best practices in building a pension system in Ukraine," Canada's Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said at a joint press conference with Marchenko on Tuesday.
Champagne noted that Canada has a lot to offer in Ukraine's reconstruction.
Ukraine, Poland partner on regional policy, recovery, EU integration
Ukraine and Poland have signed a memorandum on cooperation in regional policy, recovery, and EU integration, Ukraine's Ministry for Communities and Territories Development said on Wednesday.
A key part of the agreement is that Ukraine will share its wartime experience with Poland. This includes practical ways to protect people, quickly repair important infrastructure, and ensure regional resilience, the ministry said in a press release.
In return, Poland will help Ukraine get ready to apply for European Union funding, especially in connection with the negotiating Chapter 22 - Regional policy and coordination of structural instruments. Since Poland has successfully used EU funds to improve its own regions, it will now share that knowledge and experience with Ukraine, the statement read.
Other areas of cooperation envisaged by the memorandum include implementing best practices of the EU's cohesion policy in Ukraine, developing a model for administering future European funds in Ukraine, and involving Polish businesses in recovery projects through economic missions and regional investments, among others.
"This is joint work towards a safe and sustainable future for both countries. We are preparing for full integration into European regional development programmes while sharing practical knowledge with our neighbours, proven effective in extremely challenging conditions," Ukraine's Minister for Communities and Territories Development Oleksii Kuleba said following the signing.
The memorandum will remain in effect until the end of 2030. Its implementation will be coordinated at the level of deputy ministers and relevant departments of both countries, as per the statement.
Polish logistics service provider Rohlig SUUS opens subsidiary in Ukraine
Rohlig SUUS Logistics, one of the largest logistics service providers in Poland, said it has opened a subsidiary in Ukraine, headquartered in Kyiv, as it looks to strengthen its position in Central and Eastern Europe.
The company, which has been providing logistics services in Ukraine for years, said in a press release on Tuesday that it recognizes the rising economic significance of the country where it now offers road, rail, air, and sea transport, intermodal solutions, and customs clearance.
"In light of the changing global situation and the great potential for rebuilding the devastated economy, we are seeing increasing interest in this market — from investors in Poland, as well as across Western Europe, Asia, and the United States," said Piotr Iwo Chmielewski, CEO of Rohlig SUUS Logistics.
Rohlig SUUS Logistics said it offers regular road transport from their warehouse in Rzeszów in southeastern Poland, as well as rail and intermodal transport options. The company also has a team of experts focused on the Ukrainian market, including staff working directly in Ukraine.
"We believe that hostilities will soon be halted and that accelerated economic activity in Ukraine will create new opportunities for the logistics sector. Thus we want to be One Step Ahead—ready with proven solutions on this market," said Andrzej Kozłowski, Member of the Management Board of Rohlig SUUS Logistics.
Ukraine is the eighth country where Rohlig SUUS Logistics has expanded its operations. Besides its main base in Poland, the company also operates in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary, and Kazakhstan. Altogether, SUUS runs over 40 branches and has more than 2,500 employees.
Politico: Putin is ready for a forever war in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for an endless war in Ukraine, as evidenced by the Kremlin stalling the peace negotiations - the tactic Moscow uses whenever it has little interest in concluding them other than on its own full terms, Jamie Dettmer, an opinion editor at Politico Europe, wrote in an op-ed.
Putin likely believes that he can achieve many of his goals in Ukraine not just through long fighting, but also by dragging out peace talks, hoping that this will wear down US President Donald Trump's willingness to keep pushing for a deal, Dettmer argued.
Atlantic Council: US-Ukraine minerals deal combines economic cooperation with security interests
The minerals deal between the US and Ukraine isn't just about business - it's a strategic partnership that blends economic goals with geopolitical interests, Svitlana Kovalchuk, executive director at Yalta European Strategy, wrote in an op-ed for Atlantic Council.
By treating military aid as a type of long-term investment, the US is gaining a lasting role in supporting Ukraine's security and helping manage its recovery. It's a clear example of economic statecraft, where financial tools are used to strengthen alliances and shape global influence, Kovalchuk noted.
SEPA membership could save up to €100 million annually to Ukrainian businesses and citizens, study finds
Ukrainian businesses and population could save between €70 million and €100 million per year if the country joins the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) payment schemes, a study conducted by Kyiv-based think tank the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) concludes.
A European Union initiative, SEPA allows for cashless euro payments via credit transfer and direct debit throughout the area, which now covers 40 European countries.
To calculate potential savings for Ukrainian customers, IER quoted a World Bank analysis for Western Balkan countries - including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Serbia - that found the cost of a transfer of €20,000 between the EU and these countries was 0.3% on average in 2023, compared to 0.02% for the same payment within the EU.
IER also noted that an analysis of the fees at the four Ukrainian banks holding the most business deposits in foreign currency shows this: sending a €20,000 payment costs less than €60 (or 0.3%), but that's still much more than the €4 (0.02%) it usually costs within the EU. Even the lowest standard fees at Ukrainian banks, outside of special deals, are $20 to $30, as per the study.
According to a World Bank review from November 2024, cited by IER, the cost of sending money from countries like Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Italy to Ukraine varied widely. For smaller transfers of around €140 or the equivalent in local currency, the fees ranged from 1% to over 10%. The highest costs were usually due to fixed bank fees, which made small transfers especially expensive when done through traditional bank channels. Still, in each country, there were some options available with fees as low as 2%.
When sending larger amounts of around €345 or its equivalent, the percentage-based cost was generally lower. In these cases, the best transfer options had fees close to just 1% of the amount, according to the study. This shows that while fixed fees can make small transfers costly, sending larger sums tends to be more cost-effective.
In 2024, Ukraine's trade with EU countries involved payments in euros worth up to €46 billion - over €16 billion from exports of goods and services, and more than €29 billion from imports. On top of that, Ukraine received over €1.8 billion in money transfers from the EU through banks and international payment systems.
IER pointed out that Moldova estimated it would save about €12 million in the short term after joining SEPA. Since Ukraine's trade with the EU is more than nine times larger than Moldova's, and its incoming money transfers are six times higher, Ukraine’s potential benefits from SEPA membership could be much greater, IER noted.
SEPA can give Ukraine access to the EU's financial services market even before it officially joins the EU. In addition, by lowering transaction costs, SEPA could reduce informal money transfers, encourage more euro use in trade, speed up payments, and boost business efficiency. It would also make payments more secure and transparent, helping prevent fraud, IER said.
North Macedonia and Moldova were admitted into the geographical scope of SEPA in March. In November last year, Montenegro and Albania became the first Western Balkan countries to join SEPA.
Social Media Posts
UK investors' guide to Ukraine reconstruction
BDO in Ukraine launched an Investor’s Guide to Ukraine’s Recovery for UK companies, which it developed in conjunction with the Mayors’ Club Ukraine and Economy of Trust Ukraine Inc. for the Trade Mission Rebirth of Ukraine to the UK.
"This Guide offers valuable insights into Ukraine’s investment landscape, highlighting key opportunities for cooperation and development. With its strategic location, abundant natural resources and growing digital economy, Ukraine remains a resilient and attractive destination for investment, even despite the ongoing war."
Ukrainian leaders meet UK businesses
Arthur Kay, director at Innovo Group, a leader in urban development, recapped a visit to its London headquarters this week by a delegation of Ukrainian politicians and UK businesses to discuss the role of UK business in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
"We discussed the extent of reconstructing Ukraine – with one Ukranian delegate sharing that current World Bank and Ministry of Economy estimates put the total price tag at USD528 billion. Ukraine Trade Envoy Alex Sobel joined us in applauding the enduring strength of the UK-Ukraine relationship, friendship, and shared values."
GovTech Pulse launched
Valeriya Ionan, Deputy Minister for Eurointegration at Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Affairs, announced the launch of GovTech Pulse, a recurring public opinion survey focused on digital public services.
"GovTech Pulse provides actionable insights into usage, satisfaction, digital inclusion, and public expectations. It is not just a dataset — it’s a governance tool that helps Ukraine make informed, user-centered decisions and continuously improve the experience of interacting with the state."
Companies operating near front lines commended
Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine's first deputy prime minister and economy minister, applauded companies that continue to operate in Zaporizhzhia despite its proximity to the front line, only 30 km away.
Companies mentioned included the bus maker Zaporizhzhia Automobile Building Plant, copper power cable manufacturer Electro Cable Group and Klion-Group, Ukraine's largest importer of fish and seafood, which employs 1,200 people locally.
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