Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- URN Daily interviews Finland's special envoy to the reconstruction of Ukraine
Just The Facts:
- US wants Ukraine to hold elections after ceasefire, Trump envoy says
- Zelensky says it's 'very dangerous' for Ukraine to be left out of US-Russia war talks
- Ryanair prepares to resume Ukraine flights 4-6 weeks after war ends, CEO says
- Firefighting equipment maker Pozhmashyna to build new Lviv plant for $15 million
Here's What They Think:
- Project Syndicate: Norway must allocate war windfall profits to Ukraine
- Kyiv Post: Pro-Russian figures celebrate as USAID funding ends in Ukraine
- CEPA: Preparations for peace in Ukraine should start now
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine needs $56 billion to rebuild the agricultural sector over the next decade, study finds
Dear subscriber,
URN Daily held an interesting interview with Finland's special envoy to the reconstruction of Ukraine, Antti Vänskä, on Friday. For premium subscribers, here's an initial news story written from the interview.
We will follow up tomorrow with talk of Finland's focus on the coming reconstruction of Ukraine, the jarring shift from its widepsread dealings with Russia after the full-scale invasion, and more.
Today's story addresses the increased interest he is seeing in the Finnish private sector.
60 Finnish companies take first steps toward business in Ukraine as hope for peace grows, special envoy says
Some 60 privately owned Finnish companies have applied so far to the government's Finnpartnership program that helps them get ready to invest in Ukraine, said Antti Vänskä, Finland's special envoy to the reconstruction of Ukraine. And that number is set to grow.
"The interest of Finnish companies towards Ukraine is increasing constantly," Vänskä said in an interview with Ukraine Rebuild Newswire. "A lot depends on what's happening in Ukraine, and exactly at this moment, there's a waiting mood connected with the larger geopolitical situation."
The companies, many in the construction sector but also in energy, telecommunications, digitalization and education services, have taken what Vänskä described as a "first step" toward actually finding partners or doing business in Ukraine with their appeal to Finnpartnership.
The Finnpartnership program for companies that want to invest in Ukraine was stated in December of 2023, offering to help Finnish companies find business partners and work opportunities in Ukraine, help financing technical studies and market research, forming consortia and establishing trade relations.
50 of the companies applied to Finnpartnership in 2024, adding to the 10 applicants from previously, and Vänskä said the pace seems to be picking up.
"50 is actually quite a lot," Vänskä said. "Still, many companies are looking for peace in Ukraine. If that happens, there will be a lot of Finnish companies trying to establish themselves in Ukraine."
Finnpartnership is one of dozens of public and private sector programs designed to support Finnish companies interesting in establishing themselves in Ukraine.
The Finnish government helps private companies through the national export credit agency, Finnvera, which offers credit insurance, letter of credit guarantees and buyer credit guarantees. And the national development finance institution, Finnfund, has been allocated €25 million in government funds to invest in projects in Ukraine that involve Finnish companies.
The Finland-Ukraine Investment Facility (FUIF), a new type of development aid run by the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, helps fund public sector investments in Ukraine carried out by Finnish businesses. The program is asking Finnish companies to submit proposals for such investments by the end of this month.
The list of programs and offerings to help Finnish companies invest in Ukraine ranges from general advice from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to advice on obtaining European Union financing, to help finding business partners in Ukraine and assessing a company's ability to operate internationally.
Finland, a nation of 5.6 million that shares a 1,340-kilometer (833 mile) border with Russia, has shown an outsized interest in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion of 2022, despite its historic lack of strong business ties with Ukraine.
Before the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion, Finland had strong business ties with Russia and little independent involvement in Ukraine, said Vänskä.
What little Finnish involvement there was in Ukraine was generally managed from the companies' branches in Moscow, meaning that, when the companies pulled out of Russia to protest the invasion, they lost even the little Ukraine expertise they had, according to a URN interview late last year with Finnfund investment director Hanna Loikkanen.
Still, according to data collected by Oct 31, 2024 by the Ukraine Support Tracker of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Finland now ranks 12th in the world in government aid to Ukraine, and fifth in terms of percentage of its gross domestic product. By population, Finland ranks 117th in the world.
Last week, Finland approved its 27th military aid package for Ukraine, of about €200 million bringing the total in military aid it has given to Ukraine to €2.5 billion euros in the past three years.
Finnish private sector involvement is most notable with the announcement in August of last year that construction materials supplier Peikko Group will open a 2,400 square meter (26,000 square foot) factory and warehouse in the central Ukrainian city of Bila Tserkva.
The factory, is meant to start operations as early as the first quarter of 2025, and will begin by manufacturing precast connections as well as its Durabeam composite beams and floor joints for industrial buildings.
Thank you - as always email the editor adam.brown@ukrainerebuildnews.com with any thoughts, suggestions, complaints or tips.
No, on to the daily headlines ...
US wants Ukraine to hold elections after ceasefire, Trump envoy says
US wants Kyiv to hold elections within the coming months once a ceasefire deal with Moscow is concluded, US President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, told Reuters in an interview.
Kellogg stressed that presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine — which have been suspended during the war — "need to be done."
"Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war," Kellogg told Reuters. "I think it is important they do so. … I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running."
Trump's planfor Ukraine and Russia is developing, and no policy decisions have been made yet. Kellogg and other Trump administration officials have however discussed in recent days pushing Ukraine to agree to elections as part of a brokered deal with Russia, three unnamed sources told Reuters.
Two of the sources said that Trump officials are discussing whether an initial ceasefire would be needed before reaching a permanent deal, adding that, if elections take place in Ukraine, the winner would be responsible for negotiating the longer-term peace deal.
Commenting on Kellogg's interview, Zelensky's communication adviser, Dmytro Lytvyn, told Reuters that US elections following a ceasefire looked like a "failed plan" if that is all it consists of.
"We haven't seen Mr. Kellogg's full interview, only a few quotes about the elections, so it's hard to fully assess his position," Lytvyn said. "But if his plan is just a ceasefire and elections, it is a failed plan – Putin won't be intimidated by just those two things."
Lytvyn said that, during Trump's meeting with Zelensky, the US president "spoke deeply and wisely about the situation and what could actually pressure [Russian President Vladimir] Putin." Lytvyn praised Trump and his "peace through strength" approach.
Zelensky's aide stressed the needs for "real work between teams on a concrete plan to end the war and ensure lasting peace."
The term of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was supposed to end in 2024, but presidential and parliamentary elections cannot be held under martial law, which Kyiv instated in February 2022. The Biden administration has raised the issue of elections with Zelensky's senior officials in 2023 and 2024, two unnamed former US officials said.
Zelensky says it's 'very dangerous' for Ukraine to be left out of US-Russia war talks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that it would be "very dangerous" to leave his country out of talks between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, urging more discussions with Washington to formulate a ceasefire plan.
Zelensky's comments came a day after US President Donald Trump said that US and Russian officials were "already talking" about ending the war. Trump also said that his administration had held "very serious" discussions with Russia, without providing further details.
"They may have their own relations, but talking about Ukraine without us — it is dangerous for everyone," Zelensky said in an interview with The Associated Press.
Zelensky said his team has been in touch with the Trump administration, but discussions are at a "general level," and he expects in-person meetings soon to work out more detailed agreements.
"I believe that, first and foremost, we (must) hold a meeting with him, and that is important. And that is, by the way, something that everyone in Europe wants," Zelensky said, referring to "a common vision of a quick end to the war."
After the conversation with Trump, "we should move on to some kind of format of conversation with Russians. And I would like to see the United States of America, Ukraine and the Russians at the negotiating table. ... And, to be honest, a European Union voice should also be there. I think it would be fair, effective. But how will it turn out? I don't know."
Zelensky also said that Trump could leverage the threat of sanctions on Russia's energy and banking sectors, along with continued support for the Ukrainian military, to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine joining NATO would be the "cheapest" option for the allies and that would also strengthen Trump geopolitically.
"It will be a signal that it is not for Russia to decide who should be in NATO and who should not, but for the United States of America to decide. I think this is a great victory for Trump," he said.
Ryanair prepares to resume Ukraine flights 4-6 weeks after war ends, CEO says
Ryanair is preparing a plan that would allow it to resume flights to Ukraine four to six weeks after the war with Russia ends, CEO Michael O'Leary said, as quoted by The Telegraph.
"I would very much hope it's this year. I think one of the things that Trump can deliver, hopefully, would be an earlier resolution of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine," O'Leary stated.
Ryanair plans to launch approximately 24 new routes connecting Kyiv and Lviv, flying aircraft redirected from airports like Stansted and Paris Orly to service these cities, The Telegraph reported.
O'Leary said a formal ceasefire would be necessary to meet the requirements of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). "Ultimately it will need some kind of ceasefire because EASA won't allow anything to fly over there unless they have some kind of reasonable certainty that there won’t be missiles flying," he said.
O'Leary mentioned that Kyiv and Lviv are "ready to go," with operational infrastructure, like baggage carousels, maintained weekly to ensure functionality.
While a return to Odesa may take longer due to extensive damage, several hubs in the east and south have been "bombed to hell" and are effectively destroyed, according to O'Leary.
This includes Kherson's airport, where Ryanair previously operated. The city experienced significant damage after being initially overtaken by Russian forces, though it was later reclaimed by Ukrainian troops.
O'Leary visited Ukraine last year, touring Kyiv airport, meeting with the country's infrastructure minister and setting out what he called "a radical air transport recovery plan."
In October, Ukraine's Ministry for Communities and Territories Development presented a roadmap for the partial opening of the country's airspace under martial law, without specifying which airports were considered nor when the reopening could take place.
Ukraine's airspace has been closed since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ryanair was the second-largest airline in Ukraine before the invasion.
Firefighting equipment maker Pozhmashyna to build new Lviv plant for $15 million
Pozhmashyna, one of Ukraine's leading manufacturers of fire and specialized equipment, plans to invest $15 million to build a new plant near the western Ukrainian region of Lviv, said local authorities.
The company will build the 13,000 square meter (140,000 square foot) factory in the Formatsia Lviv Industrial Park, developed by Ukrainian real estate firm Alterra Group, over two years, said Invest in Lviv, the local investment promotion agency.
"This is one of the country’s unique full-cycle automotive plant projects and the first of its kind in the last 15 years," the agency said in a social media post.
The post said Pozhmashina is a leader manufacturer of fire and rescue vehicles for the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and it also makes agricultural equipment and machinery for clearance of land mines.
The Formatsia Lviv Industrial Park plans to attract up to 10 large manufacturing companies and about 50 small and medium-sized businesses, Invest in Lviv said in 2023 when announcing the start of construction of the park.
Project Syndicate: Norway must allocate war windfall profits to Ukraine
Norway has turned into a war profiteer and must start allocating its war windfall profits to Ukraine to support European security, Håvard Halland, professor of sustainable finance at Heriot-Watt University, and Knut Anton Mork, professor emeritus of economics at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, wrote in an op-ed for the Project Syndicate.
Norway has profited immensely from the war between Ukraine and Russia, earning €108 billion from soaring natural gas prices while providing Ukraine with only €3 billion in aid for 2025, the authors wrote. Despite benefiting from Europe's energy crisis caused by Russia's gas cutoff, Norway refuses to allocate its windfall profits to Ukraine's defense and reconstruction, prioritizing its sovereign wealth fund over European security.
Kyiv Post: Pro-Russian figures celebrate as USAID funding ends in Ukraine
Many former members of pro-Russian parties or individuals with pro-Russian views are celebrating the end of funding for USAID projects in Ukraine, Andriy Kurkov, a novelist and cultural activist, wrote in an op-ed for the Kyiv Post.
These figures have begun to act in unison on social media, like an orchestrated performance, Kurkov wrote. "One can only guess about the location of the conductor of this ensemble, towards whose baton their gaze is directed," he concluded.
CEPA: Preparations for peace in Ukraine should start now
Preparations for peace in Ukraine and, most importantly, on how to keep it potentially through the deployment of an outside military force on the frontline, should start now, Volodymyr Dubovyk, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) wrote in an op-ed.
The size and mandate as well as how heavily armed the outside military force, if deployed, should be, are some of the main issues policymakers need to resolve for the potential peace in Ukraine to be stable and longstanding, Dubovyk argued.
Ukraine needs $56 billion to rebuild the agricultural sector over the next decade, study finds
Ukraine's agricultural sector requires $56 billion for reconstruction over the next decade to replace machinery, restore production, and rebuild infrastructure, according to a report published by Center for Food and Land Use Research.
Agriculture is a mainstay of Ukraine's economy, constituting 11% of GDP and 40% of exports as of 2021. The study estimated war-related damages to Ukraine’s agricultural sector at $10.3 billion, with losses totaling $69.8 billion.
Recovery needs includes three main categories; support for immediate production recovery, support for long-term recovery, and support for agricultural public institution.
The study analyzed the development of Ukrainian agriculture before and during the conflict. It examined structural changes in major agri-food sectors, including the impact on exports, production levels, and policy adaptations.
Data was collected from government sources, industry reports, and international trade organizations. The study also included expert interviews and survey data from Ukrainian farmers to evaluate the economic and logistical challenges faced by the industry.
In 2021, Ukraine was the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, the third-largest corn exporter, and the fifth-largest wheat exporter. Despite the war, Ukraine retained its leading position in sunflower oil and corn exports, while its ranking for wheat exports was sixth place in 2023.
The war disrupted Ukraine’s seaborne exports, causing fluctuations in global grain prices. More than 400 million people worldwide rely on Ukrainian grain, and the export blockades initially led to price surges.
Since mid-2022, global agricultural prices started a steady decline due to favorable climate in other regions and global economic slowdown, which Russian propaganda relied on in alleging that Ukrainian agriculture sector is insignificant for the global food security, the researchers argued.
Ukraine’s farmland market showed resilience despite the conflict, bolstered by the 2024 legalization of land sales to legal entities. The government implemented agri-food sector support policies in response to wartime losses and post-war recovery needs. Policy adjustments are also aligned with European Union integration goals under the Ukraine Facility Plan.
Projections indicate a gradual recovery in Ukrainian agricultural production, with a shift toward oilseeds due to higher profitability. By 2033, grain production is expected to rise by 42%, while oilseed production could increase by 67%. Poultry and egg production will continue growing, whereas cattle farming is projected to decline.
Recommendations include increased financial support for farmers, investment in logistics, and policy reforms to enhance productivity. The report highlights the need for international collaboration to aid Ukraine’s agricultural recovery and ensure long-term global food stability.
Key initiatives for reconstruction support include interest rate compensation, partial credit guarantees, grants for small producers, and farmland recultivation, with significant donor contributions already secured.
Japanese Food
Oleksandra Novak, a partnership expert at the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and a consultant at the World Bank, posted observations from her recent training in Tokyo on Japanese agricultural demand and food trends.
Some of her remarks of potential use to Ukrainian agribusiness include that the meat market has very high import standards, heating and cooling technology is common in greenhouses and Japan is currently undergoing a "cabbage shock" due to poor yields, with prices of as much as $7 per head.
Food Safety in Ukraine
The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine recapped a visit by leaders of its Food & Beverage and Retail & E-Commerce Committees to Serhii Tkachuk, the Head of the State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection (SSUFSCP).
They discussed the state service's plans to align Ukrainian legislation with EU law in 2025, expand international markets and strengthen laboratory capacity as well as develop proposals for responsible marketing and public health regulation.
DTEK Wind Farm Illustrated
DTEK, the largest private investor in Ukraine's energy sector, posted details of its Tyligulska Wind Power Plant, which it says will be the largest wind farm in Eastern Europe with the recently announced €450 million expansion.
In a series of illustrations, the company outlined planned power capacity, the size of the windmills, turbine models, expected completion date, total cost, construction phases and more.
Localization
Dmytro Salimonov, general manager in Ukraine for Global Clearance Solutions (GCS), posted about the value of localization of foreign businesses in Ukraine, offering successful examples from McDonald's, Netflix and Airbus.
"GCS Ukraine is leading the way. We’ve already invested several millions € to establish an office, service centre and warehouse in Kyiv, train personnel and expand operations. Today, 62 of our machines are working in Ukraine’s most dangerous regions. New deliveries are also planned for this year."
Legal Digest
Local law firm Arzinger promoted its monthly legal digest, which contains information on energy, sustainable development, life sciences, construction, international taxation, infrastructure and more.
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