Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- Connecting funding with business
Just The Facts:
- Trump says he will speak with Putin on Tuesday about ending Ukraine war
- Australian billionaire mulls dropping 'Marshall Plan' for Ukraine in case of a bad peace deal
- Poland, Ukraine to seek G7 approval for Poland to host Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2026
- airBaltic promises to be first airline back in Ukraine after airspace reopens
- Canada allocates extra CAD 50 million to Ukraine Energy Support Fund
- Austrian foreign minister pledges €5 million for demining, €2 million for Grain from Ukraine during Kyiv visit
Here's What They Think:
- Newsmax: Ukraine needs digitalization for reconstruction
- Irish Independent: Peace in Ukraine cannot come at the cost of its sovereignty
Sober Second Thought:
- Europe can replace US support for Ukraine both financially and militarily, analysis finds
Dear subscribers, I wanted to call attention to two points.
Closing Window of Opportunity
#1 - The news item we ran Friday about the layoffs at prime contractors contained the following paragraphs (I'm bolding portions to make my point):
"Most of the more than 300 Tetra Tech employees in Ukraine face the prospect of redundancy unless other donors quickly replace missing US funding. Around 50 have already been laid off, said one source, and the company is sitting on expensive equipment it has bought specifically to carry out contracts in Ukraine that may never be delivered to the partner organisations.
Tetra Tech now has "a short window of time where it has a large number of under-utilised, experienced engineers and analysts available to lead projects from alternative donors," one source said. "If donor nations are slow to move and don’t take advantage of this capacity then we may see our highly valued staff either leaving the country or being mobilized into the Ukrainian army."
A number of DFIs, IFIs and government agencies read this newsletter, so I wanted to make sure they didn't miss the message in the story. The window won't stay open long.
Unknown Opportunities
#2 - Speaking of DFIs, I was talking Friday with Tyson Barker, who served as the US deputy special envoy to the reconstruction of Ukraine under the Biden administration, and he brought up a disconnect I have been witnessing for some time.
"The DFIs are not the best at communicating their financial instruments so the global private sector is not always aware that these funding instruments are available. They're not synapsing," he said.
"So if you are an Italian, or a German middle-sized company looking to create intermediary auto parts in Ukraine, or you're an agribusiness equipment company looking to produce in Ukraine, you may not be aware of instruments that will substantially reduce the cost of investing."
In fact, his #1 tip for foreign investors is to try to connect with DFIs - they may have highly relevant programs that just have not been well publicized.
Which brings me to my question:
We're looking to talk to a private company or consultant that specializes in connecting businesses with DFIs. Not just one DFI, but many of them. Or that is somehow specialized in otherwise tapping Pillar II funding under the Ukraine Facility.
We'd be interested in writing about this subject further.
Please email me at adam.brown@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
I would also be interested in talking more with DFIs about this problem, although some have expressed it to me.
Dear reader,
Ukraine Rebuild Newswire has found a clear purpose - to ensure Ukraine is built back better. It's an inspiring vision that instills in us an esprit de corps, gives our small staff the endurance to continue 6 or 7 days a week, and allows us to end our weeks with a smile.
(That's fortunate because it also allows URN to pay staff partly in euros and partly, for now, in a heightened sense of satisfaction! At least it's tax free.)
We are excited about our prospects and we are punching well beyond our weight, but a sense of purpose doesn't go very far at the grocery store.
So please do consider a little extra support for the world's only scrappy, bootstrapped media outlet devoted solely to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Please visit the URN tip jar.
Thank you,
Trump says he will speak with Putin on Tuesday about ending Ukraine war
US President Donald Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
"I'll be speaking to President Putin on Tuesday. A lot of work's been done over the weekend. We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can't, but I think we have a very good chance," Trump told reporters onboard Air Force One on Monday.
At a meeting between American and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia's port city of Jeddah on last week, Ukraine agreed to a US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, subject to acceptance and implementation by Russia. Putin then said Moscow agrees with the US proposal in principle but that a number of details need to be clarified before the fighting stops.
When asked about potential concessions in the ceasefire negotiations, Trump responded: "We'll be talking about land. We'll be talking about power plants. I think we have a lot of it already discussed very much by both sides, Ukraine and Russia. We're already talking about that, dividing up certain assets."
Following the meeting in Jeddah with Ukrainian officials, the US has been pushing for the Kremlin to also agree on the ceasefire agreement. Steve Witkoff, the US envoy assigned to the Ukraine-Russia war, visited Moscow on Thursday for talks about a potential deal.
On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had a call during which they "discussed next steps to follow up on recent meetings in Saudi Arabia and agreed to continue working towards restoring communication between the United States and Russia," as per a statement from the State Department.
Australian billionaire mulls dropping 'Marshall Plan' for Ukraine in case of a bad peace deal
Australia's billionaire Andrew Forrest, who committed $500 million to a global fund for Ukraine's reconstruction later described as a "Marshall Plan" for the war-torn country, said he may be forced to withdraw his pledge in case of a bad peace deal.
"If it's a peace deal which the Ukrainians are unhappy with because it was forced upon them by a transaction mentality, then I don't see that as sustainable. What that fund is set up for is sustainable peace to the satisfaction of the freely elected cabinet of Ukraine," Forrest told The Telegraph in an interview.
"If there's any way it was going to benefit the aggressor then I have no interest. We're not here to encourage dictatorship and tyranny. We're here to underwrite the only cause of sustainability there is in the world, and that's freedom and democracy," he said.
At the end of 2022, just months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of the same year, Forrest announced that his family's Tattarang private investment vehicle was providing $500 million of seed capital to establish the Ukraine Green Growth Initiative fund.
Forrest later convinced BlackRock CEO Larry Fink to take the lead in coordinating investment for rebuilding the war-torn country. In turn, BlackRock secured additional support from Wall Street giants, including JP Morgan, The Telegraph reported.
The Australian envisioned the fund—now rebranded as the Ukraine Development Fund (UDF)—eventually reaching $100 billion in capital. However, it has struggled to take off. Sources close to the fund told The Telegraph attracting investors has been challenging while Ukraine remains under constant bombardment. As a result, fundraising is effectively on hold, according to the newspaper.
When first announced, Forrest's initiative received strong support from Kyiv, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that the fund could help replace "communist-era rubbish Russian infrastructure" with cutting-edge technology. Zelensky envisioned this alliance of international capital coming together to "build the world's first green digital economy and the fastest-growing economy in Europe, if not the world."
Forrest compared Washington's negotiations approach to "a poor chief executive trying to get a good quarterly result and a bonus," but who ends up "running the company into the ground because it's visionless," as quoted by The Telegraph.
Poland, Ukraine to seek G7 approval for Poland to host Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2026
Poland and Ukraine have agreed to jointly petition G7 countries for Poland to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference in 2026, according to government statements and news reports.
This decision was confirmed during a joint press conference in Warsaw last week by Polish Minister of Development and Technology Krzysztof Paszyk and Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, following the 10th meeting of the Ukrainian-Polish intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation.
The meeting, which has attracted world political and business leaders in each of the last three years, will be held in Rome this year on July 10-11. It was held in Berlin last year and London the year before.
Pączek said hosting the conference would provide significant opportunities for Polish companies to participate in Ukraine's recovery efforts, according to the Odessa Journal. He noted that, while the exact date and location are yet to be determined, the forum could take place in one of Poland's largest cities.
Additionally, Paszyk highlighted the necessity of establishing an intergovernmental agreement regarding the operational status of Poland's state-run Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) in Ukraine.
He also expressed interest in collaborating on projects within the aviation industry and in restoring Ukraine's air traffic capabilities, according to a release from the Polish ministry of development and technology.
"Polish companies are willing and ready to participate in Ukraine's reconstruction projects. Many Polish companies are active in Ukraine and have experience and expertise," Paszyk said.
Separately, the Economic Forum of the Lublin Triangle Countries—Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine—was held last week in Warsaw, according to a separate release from the Polish ministry. The discussions focused on energy security, strategic transport corridors, and the economic landscape amid new international realities.
Prior to the forum, trilateral consultations among government officials addressed Poland's upcoming presidency in the EU Council and collaboration in the reconstruction of Ukraine, the release said.
airBaltic promises to be first airline back in Ukraine after airspace reopens
airBaltic is ready to resume flights to Ukraine as soon as airspace reopens and has already secured all necessary approvals, the company said after sending a delegation to visit the country.
"We have consistently expressed our plans for airBaltic to be the first airline back in Ukraine when it is safe, and we stand by this commitment," said CEO Martin Gauss. "Following our second in-person visit to Kyiv, preparations for our return are well underway."
The Latvian airline said it also plans to reintegrate Kyiv and Lviv into its route network and expand connections beyond Riga by linking Kyiv with Tallinn and Vilnius.
A delegation from airBaltic met last week with officials from the Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine, Boryspil International Airport, and the Latvian Embassy in Ukraine, according to the press release.
Oleksiy Dubrevskyy, CEO of Boryspil International Airport, the country's largest airport, some 29 km (18 miles) east of Kyiv, described the visit as a significant step toward restoring Ukraine's air connectivity, highlighting growing interest from international carriers in returning to the market.
"Our team continues to collaborate closely with airlines on technical and operational matters to ensure the swift and efficient resumption of flights after the end of the war," he added.
In anticipation of resuming operations, airBaltic has also integrated the Ukrainian language into its official website to enhance accessibility for Ukrainian-speaking customers.
Last month, budget airline Wizz Air said it plans to start flying to Ukraine within six weeks of any ceasefire agreement, matching a promise made by competitor Ryanair.
Canada allocates extra CAD 50 million to Ukraine Energy Support Fund
Canada will provide an additional CAD 50 million ($34.8 million) to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, bringing its total contributions to CAD 60 million, according to the Ukrainian government. An additional CAD 10 million is planned for a future contribution.
Part of Canada’s assistance will support the health sector by developing solar power systems for critical infrastructure, the release said. The fund helps restore energy facilities damaged by attacks and ensures the stability of Ukraine’s energy system by purchasing needed equipment.
Contributions to the fund so far total €1 billion, with more than 30 donors including European Union member states, the UK, the US and various international and regional organizations, the Ukrainian government said in a press release.
Canada's Minister of International Development, Ahmed Hussen, said the increased contribution reflects Canada’s "unwavering support for Ukraine's energy sector."
"This is a strong signal of international solidarity in favour of the Fund, which has already demonstrated its effectiveness in addressing Ukraine's urgent needs," he added.
The fund was established in April 2022 by Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko and European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson under the Energy Community Secretariat.
Austrian foreign minister pledges €5 million for demining, €2 million for Grain from Ukraine during Kyiv visit
Austria will contribute €5 million for demining and €2 million for the Grain from Ukraine humanitarian initiative that supplies food to countries in need, Austrian Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger announced on Friday during a trip to Kyiv.
Her discussions with Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal focused on expanding economic partnership, supporting Ukraine’s European integration, and providing humanitarian aid.
"Austria is one of the largest investors in Ukraine. We are looking forward to the visit of the Austrian business delegation to Kyiv to coordinate our cooperation for the future," Shmyhal said in a press release.
Shmyhal invited Austrian businesses to join reconstruction projects: "In this context, we raised the issue of appointing a special representative for Ukraine to better coordinate our cooperation in this area."
Austria is actively supporting the reconstruction efforts in Ukraine and plans to expand its role as an important investor, Austria's ministry of foreign affairs said in a release.
Since the war began, Austria has mobilized over €293 million in state financial and humanitarian aid for Ukraine and its neighboring countries, according to the ministry.
Newsmax: Ukraine needs digitalization for reconstruction
Ukraine needs to implement the best digitalization practices to fight the shadow economy and support further business development and post-war reconstruction, Wesley Hill, an assistant director of the Energy, Growth, and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center, wrote in an op-ed for Newsmax.
As Ukraine embarks on its reconstruction, it should empower domestic technology firms to collaborate with the most capable international partners in developing customized solutions to combat the informal sector, Hill wrote.
Irish Independent: Peace in Ukraine cannot come at the cost of its sovereignty
Lasting peace in Ukraine—and in Europe—can only be achieved with ironclad guarantees against future aggression and Moscow's recognition of Ukraine's right to exist as an independent state, the Irish Independent's editorial board wrote in a column.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands so far would deprive Ukraine of its sovereignty, reducing an independent nation to the status of a client state. Neither President Volodymyr Zelensky nor the Ukrainian people could ever accept such an outcome, the column read.
Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both financially and militarily, analysis finds
Europe could largely compensate for the loss of US financial and military aid to Ukraine if Washington permanently withdrew its support, provided EU policymakers acted decisively, a new analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) in Germany showed.
European governments currently allocate an average of just 0.1% of their GDP annually to bilateral aid for Ukraine. To offset the loss of US support, total contributions from all EU states and institutions would need to rise to 0.21% of GDP, according to the analysis.
In absolute terms, this would require increasing European aid from the current €44 billion per year to €82 billion. Key contributors would include the EU institutions (rising from €16 billion to €36 billion), Germany (from €6 billion to at least €9 billion), the UK (from €5 billion to €6.5 billion), France (from €1.5 billion to €6 billion), Italy (from €0.8 billion to €4.5 billion), and Spain (from €0.5 billion to €3 billion).
Replacing US military aid will be more challenging but remains feasible in many areas, the authors wrote. The analysis showed that Europe's defense industry can provide viable alternatives for nearly all major US heavy weapon systems supplied to Ukraine. Additionally, Europe has already accelerated ammunition production, though efforts must now be intensified at a greater scale and speed—especially for howitzer ammunition.
Data collected by IfW Kiel indicate that Ukraine's biggest dependencies on US-produced weaponry are in rocket artillery, such as HIMARS, with 86% of systems coming from the US; and Howitzer ammunition, 82% of which is US-made, long-range anti-aircraft systems, like the Patriot, with 70% sourced from the US.
In other areas, European weaponry plays a more prominent role, particularly with howitzers and battle tanks, the authors wrote However, among heavy weapons, US-supplied HIMARS and Patriot systems—as well as the ammunition for them—are the most difficult to replace. Additionally, US intelligence sharing and satellite imagery remain crucial factors.
To address these challenges, Europe must rapidly scale up the production of essential weapons and artillery ammunition, according to IfW Kiel. A key advantage is that European donors have already shifted from supplying weapons from existing stockpiles to directly procuring new arms from industry. These procurement efforts must now be significantly expanded through firm medium- and long-term commitments to weapon manufacturers.
For US weapons that are difficult to replace, Europe could place orders not only in the US but also from other suppliers. Viable alternatives to HIMARS include the South Korean K239 Chunmoo and Israel's PULS. Additionally, Europe could invest heavily in the development and production of alternative systems such as SAMP/T.
Expanding drone production is another critical step, both by European manufacturers and, more importantly, through direct investment in Ukraine's highly successful defense industry, as per the analysis.
Finally, Europe must act swiftly to develop alternative digital, satellite, and intelligence capabilities, the authors wrote. This includes accelerating and expanding initiatives such as the IRIS2 satellite internet constellation.
Social Media Posts
Rebuilding Local Ukraine
Nedim Useinow, project manager at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said the fund will soon announce which Ukrainian city "will receive comprehensive support for infrastructure restoration and sustainable development" through a pilot program.
"Unlike many other efforts concentrated on major cities, we're building a scalable, holistic, and pro-social investment model designed for smaller Ukrainian communities," he said, adding that the fund is "coordinating a multi-sector consortium to rebuild local Ukraine."
Turkish Works During War
Burak Pehlivan, chairman of the International Turkish Ukrainian Business Association, recapped the Turkish-Ukrainian Infrastructure and Investment Forum in Kyiv, which he said drew the largest delegation of Turkish businesspeople to visit Ukraine in the last three years.
"In Ukraine, Turkish construction firms have completed projects totaling $10.4 billion, successfully carrying out 330 infrastructure and superstructure projects. During the war, all foreign infrastructure and superstructure firms operating in the country were Turkish."
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
