Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Putin touts 'the outcome Russia requires' as Zelensky reaffirms willingness for lasting ceasefire
- Minerals deal forms 'very important part' of Ukraine's future security, ambassador to US says
- US State Department approves $310 million F-16 training, sustainment sale to Ukraine
- Euroclear to give €3 billion in frozen Russian cash to compensate Western investors, sources say
Here's What They Think:
- The Spectator: Ukraine's minerals deal with US is strategic extortion
- Kyiv Post: Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable
Sober Second Thought:
- Europe unlikely to restore Russian energy flows to pre-war levels, CaixaBank Research says
Rebuilder's Social
- URN recaps that past few days of posts about the newly signed US-Ukraine minerals deal.
Putin touts 'the outcome Russia requires' as Zelensky reaffirms willingness for lasting ceasefire
Amid increasing hopes for peace talks among the international community, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he aims to achieve his goals in the Ukraine war and still has the means to do so.
"We have enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires," Putin said, according to a preview of an interview he gave to Russian state media, as reported by Politico.
"There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons ... and I hope they will not be required," he added.
Last week, Putin announced a temporary Russian ceasefire in Ukraine on May 8, May 9, and May 10, during the days marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists last Friday that the one-sided proposal was a "theatrical performance" to create a "soft atmosphere" ahead of the celebrations, according to Interfax-Ukraine.
In his nightly address to the nation on Saturday, however, Zelensky said Ukraine is "ready to move toward a ceasefire as soon as possible – even starting today – if Russia is ready to take reciprocal steps – to establish complete silence, a lasting ceasefire of at least 30 days."
US officials reportedly have drafted options for President Donald Trump to ramp up economic pressure on Russia, as Putin delays efforts to end the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. No decision has been made yet as diplomatic efforts are ongoing.
In a recent interview with NBC News, Trump said he would sign additional sanctions bill, depending "on whether or not Russia is behaving toward coming to a peace."
"We want Russia and Ukraine to agree to a deal. We think we're fairly close, and we're going to save a lot of people from being killed. Going to save a lot of money, too," he added.
Minerals deal forms 'very important part' of Ukraine's future security, ambassador to US says
The minerals deal Ukraine signed with the US last week serves as part of the foundation of Ukraine's future security, even though it doesn't explicity provide security guarantees to the country, said Oksana Markarova, the country's ambassador to the United States.
"This economic partnership deal in itself is a very important part of the broader security architecture," Markarova said in an interview with CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday. "Frankly, that fund will be successful if Ukraine is stable and peaceful. So in a way, it's an important part of the future security guarantees."
Under the deal, signed on Wednesday of last week, the United States will gain preferential access to investments in extraction of Ukrainian natural resources, signifying a potential windfall for the US and its companies if peace returns to Ukraine.
Under the deal, the US could also ship more weapons to Ukraine if a peace agreement is not reached with Russia.
Markarova also used the interview to tout the economic opportunities that Ukraine has to offer:
"I'm so glad that we can not only discuss the horrible tragedy and destruction brought by a Russian unprovoked invasion, but also of the bright future that we, together with America, and- and other countries, can have," she said. "Ukraine has agricultural land and black soil, and with the technologies, even during the war, we feed more than 400 million people.
"We have energy, we have critical mineral deposits. We have so much, including the human talent, and we can develop it together."
US State Department approves $310 million F-16 training, sustainment sale to Ukraine
The US Department of State has approved a potential sale of F-16 training, sustainment and related equipment to Ukraine worth approximately $310.5 million.
The potential sale covers services including personnel training, modifications, repairs, ground handling and software upgrades, according to a press release from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. The F-16 fighter jets are made by Lockheed Martin.
The agency said the F-16 deal would boost "the security of a partner country that is a force for political stability and economic progress in Europe" and consequently, support the US' foreign policy objectives.
"This proposed sale aligns with international coalition contributions for the establishment of Ukraine's F-16 program and the overall modernization of Ukraine's air force," the statement said. "Ukraine will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces."
The approval, announced just days after the two countries signed a deal that establishes a joint investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine and gives the US preferential access to minerals deals, still needs US Congressional sign off.
Euroclear to give €3 billion in frozen Russian cash to compensate Western investors, sources say
Euroclear, the Belgian clearing house that holds the bulk of the frozen Russian assets, plans to redistribute €3 billion in cash to compensate Western investors who had cash seized in Russia in recent months, Reuters reported.
Unnamed sources told the news agency that the €3 billion will come from a €10 billion pool pf cash belonging to Russian organizations and individuals hit by European Union sanctions after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The plans to compensate investors were formulated after the Russian government ordered the confiscation of billions of euros from Western investors last year, according to the report.
The compensation will not come from the €200 billion that Euroclear holds in reserves frozen from the Russian central bank, the news agency reported. It will, however, reduce the overall stockpile of frozen assets that could be used to help rebuild Ukraine.
The €200 billion from the Russian central bank represents the majority of Russian funds frozen in the West, thought to total $300 billion.
The income from these assets—mainly cash and government bonds—is currently used to repay G7 nations for $50 billion in loans to Ukraine, while the core assets remain intact.
The Spectator: Ukraine's minerals deal with US is strategic extortion
The newly signed US-Ukraine resources deal is less about genuine support and more a form of coercive deal-making by the Trump administration, Mark Galeotti, the head of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence and an honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, wrote in a piece for The Spectator.
While Kyiv retains nominal control over who can exploit its oil, gas, and rate earths, half of the revenue from future projects will go to the US. Galeotti notes that the terms are better than originally advertised, they still reflect "neo-colonial exploitation." The author further notes, however, that the deal could help Ukraine keep the US military aid support flowing.
Kyiv Post: Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable
No part of Ukraine – be it Crimea or eastern regions occupied by Russia – should ever be considered negotiable as ceding territory violates the constitutions of Ukraine, the United States, and the United Nations Charter, Eugene Czolij, the president of the NGO "Ukraine-2050" and honorary consul of Ukraine in Montreal, wrote in an opinion piece for Kyiv Post.
Czolij argues that the West, particularly NATO countries, must adopt a firm stance by supporting Ukraine until Russia accepts a full ceasefire and agrees to a peace backed by international security guarantees. Drawing a historical parallel to the 1938 Munich Agreement, the author warns that appeasement will only invite more war.
Europe unlikely to restore Russian energy flows to pre-war levels, CaixaBank Research says
Ukraine's post-war reconstruction raises important questions about Europe's energy future, particularly whether Russian energy will regain its position in European markets. However, Europe is unlikely to restore Russian oil and gas imports to pre-war levels, according to a report from CaixaBank Research, authored by Beatriz Villafranca Serrano. Political resistance, infrastructure damage in Ukraine, and strategic shifts within the EU all contribute to a new, less Russia-dependent European energy scenario.
According to a joint report from February by the World Bank, EU, and United Nations, the direct damage from the war between February 2022 and December 2024 is estimated at $176 billion, a 15.8% increase over previous estimates from 2023. Damage to the energy sector alone has surged by 70%, affecting electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and heating systems. The total cost of Ukraine's reconstruction over the next decade is projected at $524 billion—2.8 times the country's estimated GDP in 2024. Energy reconstruction ranks third in priority, after housing and transportation.
A key question surrounding a future peace deal and Ukraine's reconstruction is how it will affect Europe's energy outlook—particularly whether Russian energy imports will resume and how this might influence oil and gas prices, according to CaixaBank Research. Western sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion largely ended Russian oil exports to Europe, which have since been redirected to Asia. Europe has replaced these volumes with oil from the US and Middle East. Should sanctions be eased, Russian oil might lose its pricing advantage in Asia, but this would likely have little effect on Europe's current supply or oil prices, which may decline due to increased OPEC production.
In contrast, the gas sector could be more affected by a peace deal. European gas demand has dropped by 20% since 2021 due to higher prices, renewable energy expansion, and energy-saving policies. At the same time, Europe has diversified its suppliers and increased reliance on US LNG and associated infrastructure. However, Russia continues to supply LNG to Europe, representing 18% of European LNG imports (excluding Turkey) in 2024.
The report further noted that the war has also transformed pipeline routes from Russia. Only the TurkStream pipeline remains functional, while Yamal, Nord Stream, and Brotherhood are out of operation due to political and logistical barriers rather than formal EU sanctions. Despite this, the full return of Russian gas is unlikely as EU member states—except Slovakia and Hungary—oppose its comeback and favor long-term supplier diversification.
The signing last week of the minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine led to a multi-day flurry of social media commentary, mostly celebratory in content. We bring you a few of the comments in today's Rebuilder's Social
Ukraine's 'Open for Business'
Natalia Yemchenko, chief corporate affairs officer at SCM, with portfolio companies including DTEK, Metinvest, umgi and others, posted that the deal "send a clear signal to the world: Ukraine is open for business."
"As the country’s largest investor with over 20 years of investment experience — SCM is ready to partner with international investors to bring this vision to life and unleash Ukraine’s full potential."
'Win-Win'
The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine quoted its president, Andy Hunder, as calling the deal a "win-win for both countries. American business needs Ukraine, and Ukraine needs American business."
"History is in the making here with all the opportunities coming up for business. The #1 issue now is to understand the security situation so that the investments are secure," Hunder said in an interview with the BBC.
Best Possible Outcome
Mariia Zolkina, associate research fellow at LSE Ideas, posted that "US-Ukraine mineral deal signed appeared to be the best possible outcome of the tense negotiations, and is definitely a big victory of Ukraine’s negotiation team."
Most of the critical risks for Ukraine were avoided, though the story isn’t over yet. Significant details are to be defined and included in the following technical agreements.
'The War Must End'
Virgin Group founder Richard Branson said: "Well done to Ukraine and to the US for reaching agreement on a joint reconstruction investment fund. I hope this will create the long-term stability needed for a 'free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine.'"
The war "must end on terms that are acceptable to Ukraine, not just to Putin. He started this war, and he mustn’t feel emboldened by a lopsided peace that allows him to walk away with massive territorial gains and no accountability for the tremendous devastation and suffering he has caused."
'Important Things Are Happening'
The Rebuilding Ukraine Agency, an agency of companies active in the reconstruction of Ukraine, posted that "Very interesting and important things are beginning to happen in Ukraine's reconstruction arena."
"We at the Rebuilding Ukraine Agency invite those companies which are planning to expand their involvement in Ukraine, or are new to the market, to apply for membership."
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