Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- Riley Risk joins URN Partner Program to help foreign investors monitor security of operations throughout Ukraine.
Just The Facts:
- Past US aid to Ukraine excluded from minerals agreement, Shmyhal says
- Putin announces 3-day ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8 for WWII anniversary
- Korea's Itoxi Corp to help City One Development build 2 glass plants in Ukraine
- World Bank lends $70 million to Ukrhydroenergo to build storage systems
- IFC and Ukrsibbank launch €66 million risk-sharing facility to back Ukrainian corporates
Here's What They Think:
- Newsmax: Ukraine's minerals deal with the US is an investment in its survival, not a threat to its independence
- The Washington Post: Ukraine deserves fairer peace deal as Trump's proposal tilts too much toward Russia
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine's investment climate remains a major obstacle to post-war reconstruction, GMK Center says
Rebuilder's Social
- The Vice Prime Minister for Restoration talks of construction reform, Yulia Svyrydenko's press secretary tells the story of Prince Harry and the Easter Eggs, and DiXi Group x-rays the country's Chornobyl expenses.
Dear Subscribers,
Yesterday, Ukraine Rebuild Newswire launched its Partner Program, which is bringing on world experts to help foreign investors understand the investment landscape in Ukraine.
We started the program on Monday with exclusive news coverage by CMS, the top 10 global law firm, of a plan by Ukraine's state electricity off-taker to clear debt to renewable energy producers.
Today, we bring on board Riley Risk, the premier security risk advisory firm for complex environments, to keep companies, NGOs, agencies and other organizations aware of the security risks of operating in Ukraine.
We start today, with a weekly intelligence summary crafted exclusively for Ukraine Rebuild Newswire.
Download the full 5,300-word report here.
Here's a sampling:
Weekly Intelligence Summary, April 29
Executive Summary
Organizations with operations in the eastern sectors of Ukraine should accelerate contingency planning and review evacuation triggers, as the situation degrades across the eastern regions.
Infrastructure remains generally stable, with occasional power cuts, but Kherson has suffered increased civilian targeting and Pokrovosk and Toretsk face severe pressure, with a high likelihood of territorial changes in 1-3 months.
Western and central regions remain stable for operations.
Critical Risk Zones:
● Kostyantynopil direction – Unstable and Russian forces pushing West.
● Chasiv Yar: High combat activity, likely to fall within 1-2 months
● Kherson City: Increased civilian targeting, daily shelling
● Pokrovsk direction - Highly under threat, but at moment stabilised
● Sivers’k direction - Future intent of RU forces: Possibly to envelop the surrounding area.
Elevated Risk Sectors:
● Pokrovsk: Russian encirclement attempts ongoing
● Kupyansk: Supply hub under pressure
● Zaporizhzhia: Military buildup, offensive operations have now started
Stable Sectors:
● Western regions: Normal operations possible
● Kharkiv: Static front, limited changes
● Central regions: Routine operations continuing
Current Regional Status Overview
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Region |
Current Risk Level |
Change Factor |
Key Triggers |
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North |
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Incursion into Sumy Oblast |
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East |
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Tactical Disadvantages / Land |
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South |
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RU Offensive ZP / KHER |
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West |
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Missile / Drone Strikes |
Current Infrastructure Status
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Energy |
Food/Water |
Medical |
Communications |
Transportation |
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Infrastructure Notes: Limited infrastructure interruptions other than power outages. |
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Western Sector - Lviv
The western city of Lviv remained relatively peaceful, with no direct attacks, while other areas were hit by drone and missile strikes. Lviv continues to feel the pressures of the populace who were forced to flee their homes from other parts of Ukraine to the relatively peaceful west. Lviv remains an important centre of humanitarian assistance, as well as international diplomatic affairs.
Western Sector - Kyiv
Geopolitical Updates: On April 23, Russian drones and missiles attacked Kyiv, prompting air defense units to respond, causing fires and debris damage across various districts. The next day, Russia launched a major assault on Kyiv with ballistic missiles and drones, killing at least 11 people and injuring over 70, making it the deadliest attack in months.
Russian attacks continued on April 25, causing heavy damage and fatalities, while Ukrainian air defenses intercepted many drones. Almost 150 unmanned aircraft were launched towards Ukraine by April 27, causing more casualties to mount.
.... continued
The 19-page report details the security situation in all regions of Ukraine, with details of clashes, forecasts and other information of use to companies and other organizations operating in Ukraine.
For the full report, click here.
Past US aid to Ukraine excluded from minerals agreement, Shmyhal says
Ukraine has agreed that previous US aid to Kyiv will not be included in the minerals deal it plans to sign with Washington, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
"Agreements have been reached that the document does not count assistance provided before its signing," Shmyhal said in a post on Telegram on Sunday.
Shmyhal, who visited Washington last week for the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings, reported "good progress" on the agreement after meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
"The main thing is that we have clearly defined our red lines, the agreement must comply with European obligations, and also not contradict the Constitution and legislation of Ukraine. It must be ratified by the Parliament," Shmyhal wrote, adding that legal teams from both countries continue to work on the deal.
Unnamed senior officials from Ukraine told the Financial Times that the agreement could be signed as early as this week.
Last week, the US and Ukraine signed a memorandum of intent on the so-called minerals deal, reaffirming their commitment to conclude the agreement. The memorandum outlines plans to establish a reconstruction fund as part of the broader economic partnership.
The US initially sought to frame the deal as a means to recover the aid it provided to Ukraine since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Putin announces 3-day ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8 for WWII anniversary
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday announced a temporary Russian ceasefire in Ukraine on May 8, May 9, and May 10, during the days marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II.
"Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example. In case of ceasefire violations by the Ukrainian side, the Russian Armed Forces will provide an adequate and effective response," the Kremlin said in a press release.
Russia once again states its readiness for peace talks without preconditions, focused on addressing the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis and engaging constructively with international partners, the Kremlin said.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address to the nation that the ceasefire must be "immediate, full, and unconditional - for at least 30 days to ensure it is secure and guaranteed."
"We value human lives, not parades. That's why we believe - and the world believes - that there is no reason to wait until May 8. The ceasefire should not be just for a few days, only to return to killing afterward," Zelensky stated.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that Putin had offered a temporary ceasefire, but reiterated that US President Donald Trump wants a permanent ceasefire.
On May 9, Putin will host a Victory Day parade, expected to be attended by dozens of world leaders, to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany.
Korea's Itoxi Corp to help City One Development build 2 glass plants in Ukraine
South Korea's diversified investment corporation Itoxi Corp has signed a memorandum of long-term cooperation with Ukrainian company City One Development to take part in the construction of two glass plants in the war-torn country.
Under the agreement, the two will collaborate to build a glass production factory at the Misto Skla industrial park in Berezan, Kyiv region, and another at the Halychyna industrial park in Kalush, Ivano-Frankivsk region, City One Development said on Monday in a press release.
"The signed memorandum is a critical step confirming our intention to invest in the country's glass industry. We are currently finalizing an agreement to acquire a stake in the project," said Alex Cheon, CEO of Itoxi Corp.
City One Development began construction of its first float glass plant in Berezan at the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The plant is designed to produce 600 tons of glass per day, with an estimated investment of $140 million.
At the end of 2024, the company launched construction of the plant at the Halychyna industrial park.
The Berezan factory is expected to be commissioned in 2027, and the Halychyna one in 2028, as per the statement.
City One Development specializes in the execution and management of large-scale residential infrastructure projects. Its portfolio includes over 1.15 million square meters of completed projects and 600,000 square meters currently under construction.
World Bank lends $70 million to Ukrhydroenergo to build storage systems
The World Bank will provide additional funding amounting to $70 million to the Ukrainian state hydro power operator Ukrhydroenergo under the Improving Power System Resilience for European Power Grid Integration project.
The relevant loan and the guarantee agreement were signed on April 25 during the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Ukrhydroenergo said in a press release on Monday.
Under the project covered by the additional loan, Ukrhydroenergo will install storage systems at four of its power plants to improve its operations and expand the range of support services it offers on the electricity market.
The target capacity for the solar (PV) plants is 35.9 MW, and the planned battery storage capacity is 197 MW. A feasibility study for the project is currently in progress.
The additional financing is part of an agreement between Ukrhydroenergo and the World Bank to restructure and reallocate loan funds. This aims to help the company respond quickly to challenges during wartime and recover from emergencies affecting its facilities, Ukrhydroenergo said.
IFC and Ukrsibbank launch €66 million risk-sharing facility to back Ukrainian corporates
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Ukrsibbank are launching a €66 million risk-sharing facility to support Ukrainian mid-sized and larger corporates (midcaps), the IFC said on Monday.
The risk-sharing facility is expected to enable around $100 million in new lending to midcaps and support a range of new loans and credit tools, helping Ukrsibbank increase lending to eligible mid-sized companies in areas like agribusiness, manufacturing, trade, and logistics, the IFC said in a press release.
About 20% of the facility will go toward funding small renewable energy and energy efficiency projects to strengthen Ukraine's energy security.
The IFC said it will assume 50% of the credit risk, or up to €33 million. Its participation is supported by a partial guarantee from the French government, while the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office is providing additional financial support, as per the statement.
Ukrsibbank is one of the largest lenders in Ukraine by total assets, active in retail, small and medium enterprise, corporate, and specialized financing.
BNP Paribas holds a 60% stake in Ukrsibbank, while the remainder is held by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Newsmax: Ukraine's minerals deal with the US is an investment in its survival, not a threat to its independence
Although critics argue that granting the U.S. partial economic and governance rights amounts to extortion, the minerals deal is designed to protect Ukraine's future by embedding stringent transparency, accountability, and anti-corruption standards, Ivan Sascha Sheehan, a professor of Public and International affairs at the University of Baltimore, wrote in an op-ed for Newsmax.
Sheehan argues that the US-backed structure of the minerals deal offers a crucial opportunity to dismantle oligarchic monopolies, safeguard national resources, and attract sustainable foreign investment. Rather than compromising Ukraine's sovereignty, American oversight strengthens it, helping the country avoid the pitfalls of a corrupt postwar recovery and laying the groundwork for genuine independence and long-term prosperity.
The Washington Post: Ukraine deserves fairer peace deal as Trump's proposal tilts too much toward Russia
US President Donal Trump should recognize why Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky resists negotiations under continued attack — and rethink a proposal that would reward Russia by freezing the conflict along current frontlines without guaranteeing Ukraine's future security or NATO membership, according to an opinion piece from the Washington Post's editorial board.
Rather than pressuring Ukraine to concede, the piece urges Trump to demand Russia halt all hostilities first and consider far more stringent conditions before easing sanctions. A lasting peace would require Russian troop withdrawals, reparations, and safeguards against renewed aggression — outcomes that are currently unlikely given Putin's record. The piece concludes that while compromise is necessary, Trump must not ignore Putin's long history of deceit when shaping any future US policy on Ukraine.
Ukraine's investment climate presents a major obstacle to reconstruction, GMK Center says
Post-war reconstruction in Ukraine critically depends on securing large-scale investment, yet the country's unstable investment climate is a major hurdle, according to a report by GMK Center.
The think tank notes that investment mainly comes from companies already present in Ukraine or those hoping to participate in eventual reconstruction efforts.
"The Ukrainian investment climate has never been too positive towards investors. The war only worsened the situation," writes the report's author, Yuriy Grigorenko. "Now only those who already worked in Ukraine before the war, some foreign companies that have been working in Ukraine for a long time and those who expect to participate in the post-war reconstruction of the country invest in Ukraine."
"If Ukraine wants to carry out post-war reconstruction relatively quickly and on a new technological basis, it will require a lot of investment and will have to solve a lot of problems," he added.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by a quarter in 2024 from the previous year, to $3.3 billion. Crucially, 72% of this FDI was simply reinvested profits from existing investors rather than new investment.
Cumulative FDI stock dropped by 0.7%, leaving Ukraine trailing far behind its regional peers, with a sixfold gap compared to Poland, where the cumulative value of FDI amounts to $335 billion.
The early months of 2025 showed no signs of improvement, the NBU data suggests. FDI inflows in January-February amounted to just $351 million, a threefold decrease compared to the same period in 2024.
Economic expert Daniil Monin told GMK Center that this could be attributed to unstable regulations, unpredictable political decisions, and broader security concerns. "Investors are unwilling to take risks in a jurisdiction where the rules can change overnight, and politicians ignore economic logic," Monin said.
Surveys from the European Business Association (EBA) confirm continued pessimism. Despite a marginal rise in its Investment Index for 2024 to 2.49 out of 5, 79% of CEOs still rate Ukraine's investment climate as unfavorable in. Nearly half said the situation had worsened in the past year, reflecting deep-seated concerns beyond the war itself, including long-standing issues of governance, corruption, and judicial unpredictability.
According to GMK Center, failures in the privatization of key titanium assets, such as UMCC and ZTMK, expose deep dysfunction in Ukraine's investment environment. GMK also highlights the long-running case of Canada's Black Iron, which has been trying to secure mining permits for its Kryvyi Rih project since 2010. In another setback, a Ukrainian court recently transferred 49.5% of Ferrexpo's Poltava Mining to ARMA, a move the company says violates Ukrainian and European law, risking further harm to Ukraine's reputation among major international investors.
Looking ahead, there is little optimism for a turnaround in 2025. According to IMF projections, hostilities may decrease towards the end of the year, but investors remain wary amid continued Russian aggression, corruption, judicial weakness, and attacks on the energy sector. Surveys cited by GMK Center show that only 18% of businesses hope for improvement in the investment climate this year.
GMK Center notes that Ukraine's ability to attract foreign capital — and thus achieve meaningful post-war reconstruction — hinges on major reforms. Without credible security guarantees, transparent governance, and a stable regulatory environment, investment will remain elusive, jeopardizing the country's long-term recovery and modernization.
Social Media Posts
Deep Construction Reform Needed
Oleksander Kubrakov, Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister for Restoration, posted that the construction sector can become an engine for economic growth and jobs in Ukraine but it needs "deep modernization, smart planning, total transparency and massive private capital involvement."
"Ukraine’s new development phase must start with a new logic of cooperation, fair rules of the game, and consistent, systemic work with the market.
This is the path to real economic revival.
Prince Harry and the Easter Eggs
Iryna Saievych, press secretary of First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, posted the the story of how the government engaged Prince Harry, Meghan Markle and dozens of influencer in an Easter celebration that commemorated victims of the war.
"For Easter, we prepared a special basket in which every element told a story — of love, gratitude, and life. Stories that show how deeply the problem of landmines is transforming our country."
Chornobyl Expenses Rise
DiXi Group, the Ukrainian think tank, posted an analysis that showed Ukraine's expenses on the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone rose 9.5% in 2024 from the year before due to increased spending on ecological safety and decontamination.
As for the structure of expenditures, it has hardly changed. The lion's share, UAH 1.26 billion, was spent to maintain the safety of the Chrornobyl NPP's decommissioned power units, as well as the Ukryttia facility - a protective cover over the sarcophagus of the fourth reactor. This is 60.6% of all expenditures (last year it was 60%, while the amount was the same).
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
