Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Putin offers to halt invasion of Ukraine at current front lines, sources tell FT
- Getin Holding gets nod from central bank to sell Idea Bank Ukraine
- Ukraine begins talks with hedge fund-led group on GDP warrant restructuring, sources say
- Ukraine's Naftogaz lost nearly 50% of winter gas output due to Russian attacks
- Ukraine names new head of State Agency for Tourism Development
Here's What They Think:
- Brookings: US may find it hard to convince Russia to make peace deal
- The Conversation: Path to peace in Ukraine continues to narrow
Sober Second Thought:
- Seizing Russia's frozen sovereign assets is economically viable and strategically necessary, KSE says
Dear Subscribers,
Yesterday, we heard how Hill International is preparing for the reconstruction of Ukraine without actually setting up in the country as it awaits clarity on the end of the war and on the fairness of the tender process.
Today, we hear from Elena Voloshina, head of the IFC's operations in Ukraine, on preparations currently ongoing. The IFC is focused primarily on promoting the private sector, so Ms Voloshina is regularly exposed to the comings and goings of private businesses related to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
And the level of activity is significant but still cautious, she told potential investors at an online conference organized last week by AHK Ukraine, the German-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce.
"Companies are doing planning. They are investing, not just in maintenance, but also in new projects. They're thinking about EU accession, and what it means for their business. They're thinking about the rebuild. They're thinking about modern technologies," she said.
"There isn't that much that is actually coming into the country as we speak – it is mostly investors who are either local or those international companies that are here. But a lot of people are getting prepared. People are putting together feasibility studies. Some people even come here look at land plots. People are trying to identify partners so that as soon as the war is over, when Ukraine wins, people are ready to start doing business in Ukraine."
"IFC is there to support these people who are already investing and these people who are thinking about investing," she added. "So, if you have an idea that you would like to do business in Ukraine, and if you want to run it by someone, please don't hesitate to contact IFC, because we're here, we're on the ground, we're investing."
Here's a link to her PowerPoint presentation from the conference.
For questions related to daily news, story suggestions, scoops and other newsy matters, please message URN newsroom chief Valentina Bajic at valentina@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
For sponsorships, the URN Guidebooks, the Tips for Investors column and other general matters, email founder Adam Brown at adam.brown@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
If in doubt, email us both and we'll sort it out.
Now, on with the day's headlines ...
Putin offers to halt invasion of Ukraine at current front lines, sources tell FT
Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to halt the invasion of Ukraine along the current front lines as part of a potential peace deal with US President Donald Trump, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Putin allegedly told Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, during a meeting in St. Petersburg earlier this month, that Moscow might drop its claims to parts of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions still under Kyiv's control, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, the sources told the FT.
The US has since reportedly put forward proposals for a potential settlement that would involve recognizing Russia's ownership of Crimea and acknowledging the Kremlin's de facto control over the areas it currently holds in four Ukrainian regions, the sources said.
According to the FT, US proposals also include the deployment of a European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, alongside a separate non-NATO military force tasked with monitoring a ceasefire along a demilitarized zone spanning the entire 1,000 km front line.
This force would coordinate with both Ukrainian and Russian troops, each overseeing their respective sides of the so-called line of contact.
As part of a potential agreement, Ukraine would commit to not using force to reclaim Russian-occupied territory, while Russia would agree to halt its ongoing military advances.
Ukrainian officials are set to meet with European and US counterparts in London on Wednesday to discuss the latest proposals.
However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff have withdrawn from the meeting, according to American and European sources who spoke to the FT. Trump's Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, is still expected to attend.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine is prepared to enter talks with Russia in any format once a ceasefire is established and hostilities have ceased, as quoted by Reuters.
Speaking at a press briefing, Zelensky added that the Ukrainian delegation set to meet with Western officials in London on Wednesday has a mandate to discuss both full and partial ceasefire options.
On Sunday, Trump said he hoped that Ukraine and Russia would reach an agreement this week to end the war.
Getin Holding gets nod from central bank to sell Idea Bank Ukraine
Polish financial holding company Getin Holding said on Tuesday it has received approval from the National Bank of Ukraine to indirectly sell Idea Bank Ukraine to local businessman Sergiy Tigipko, owner of TAS Group, one of the largest financial and industrial groups in the country.
Getin Holding previously signed a conditional sale agreement with Cyprus-based Alkemi Limited, part of TAS Group, the Polish company said in a regulatory filing.
In a separate filing, Getin Holding said the closing date for the transaction, which will see Tigipko buy Idea Bank for $36.5 million, is April 23. Getin Holding and Tigipko signed a sale-purchase agreement for the lender in October.
Lviv-headquartered Idea Bank operates in the retail business segment and focuses on servicing individuals. The bank's main products include cash loans, credit cards, deposits, current accounts, and debit cards.
TAS Group is one of the largest financial and industrial groups in Ukraine, represented in banking, insurance, railway car manufacturing, metallurgy, packaging materials production, logistics, agriculture, food industry, and real estate.
Ukraine begins talks with hedge fund-led group on GDP warrant restructuring, sources say
Ukraine has started talks with holders of a GDP warrant to restructure a $500 million payment due on May 31, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
A group of warrant holders, including hedge funds Aurelius Capital Management and VR Capital Group, signed non-disclosure agreements last week to begin confidential discussions, the sources told Bloomberg. In-person talks are expected to take place during this week's IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington.
Negotiators are considering a mix of cash and bonds as a possible replacement for the upcoming payment. These "restricted" talks allow for the sharing of non-public information and may involve temporary trading limits, according to the report.
The $2.6 billion in outstanding warrants, which were excluded from Ukraine's $20 billion debt restructuring deal last year, are tied to the country's economic growth. As of Tuesday, they were trading at around 73 cents on the dollar, down from nearly 88 cents in February.
Ukraine has hired Rothschild & Co. and White & Case LLP as financial and legal advisers. The holders are being advised by Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP and PJT Partners, as per the report.
Ukraine's Naftogaz lost nearly 50% of winter gas output due to Russian attacks
The Ukrainian state oil and gas company Naftogaz Group said 34 sites of its unit Ukrgasvydobuvannya, the country's largest gas producer, were attacked by Russia in the 2024-2025 winter season, leading to a loss of almost 50% of its gas output.
To sustain the heating season and offset losses from the attacks, Naftogaz urgently imported 800 million cubic meters of gas, stabilized the system, and launched infrastructure restoration efforts, it said in a press release on Monday.
By March, Ukrgasvydobuvannya managed to restore half of the gas production lost during the early 2025 attacks, as per the statement.
Despite the ongoing war, Ukrgasvydobuvannya met its production targets, commissioning 83 wells and achieving a total output of 14.6 billion cubic meters in 2024, which is the highest annual volume among Naftogaz Group companies since 2017.
The company also completed over 30 ground infrastructure modernization projects, delivering an additional 300 million cubic meters of gas, up by 137% from 2021 and by 3% from 2023, Naftogaz said.
Ukraine names new head of State Agency for Tourism Development
Ukraine's government has appointed Natalia Tabaka as head of the State Agency for Tourism Development (SATD), the country's Ministry for Development of Communities and Territories said on Tuesday.
Tabaka is a lecturer at the Lviv University of Trade and Economics. Between 2017 and 2022, she served as the head of the Tourism and Resorts Department of Lviv Regional State Administration, according to her LinkedIn profile.
Tabaka said that under her leadership, SATD will start implementing its priority tasks, including memorialization, changes to the law on tourism, categorization of hotels and the launch of a unified tourist registry, development of a modern tourism development strategy, as well as international cooperation in the field of tourism, as quoted by the ministry.
Tabaka is replacing Mariana Oleskiv, whose mandate ended in February.
SATD is the central executive authority responsible for implementing the state policy in the field of tourism and resorts in Ukraine, it says on its website.
Brookings: US may find it hard to convince Russia to make peace deal
If US President Donald Trump is serious about achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine, his administration may face a challenge of persuading Moscow to make concessions in peace negotiations, Steven Pifer, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings, wrote in an op-ed.
The latest proposals by US officials presented to Ukrainians in Paris last week may not get a warm welcome in Kyiv, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who claimed a settlement in the war was "emerging," may find its next meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin more difficult than the first one earlier this month, Pifer wrote.
The Conversation: Path to peace in Ukraine continues to narrow
After more than three years of war, peace in Ukraine still seems unlikely as there is no clear path to even a temporary ceasefire, especially after Russia refused to extend a short Easter truce, despite support for it from the US, UK, and Ukraine, Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, and Tetyana Malyarenko, a professor of International Security at the National University Odesa Law Academy, wrote in an op-ed for The Conversation.
At this point in Russia's war against Ukraine, a ceasefire is clearly needed before any peace deal can happen. However, focusing only on a ceasefire won't necessarily bring peace closer, as evidenced by Moscow reneging on the Minsk ceasefire agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, the authors wrote.
Seizing Russia's frozen sovereign assets is economically viable and strategically necessary, KSE says
As US political support for Ukraine wanes and Europe faces growing pressure to fund Ukraine's defense and reconstruction, the full confiscation of more than $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets is not only legally feasible but also economically justifiable and strategically urgent, the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said in a recently published analysis.
Some of the earnings from these reserves are already being used to back grants and loans to Ukraine under the G7's Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) mechanism. But with the US stepping back from joint G7 action and European nations carrying a greater part of the financial cost, the debate over full seizure has intensified.
The potential financial and political risks of asset seizure are manageable and outweighed by the benefits of strengthening Ukraine and deterring further Russian aggression, according to KSE.
Despite concerns over global financial stability, data show that the composition of global reserves has remained stable since the immobilization of Russian assets. Central banks have not significantly shifted away from G7 currencies, as they remain indispensable for liquidity, hedging, and large-scale reserve holdings, as per the report.
Fears of global backlash against G7 currencies are further exaggerated by the fact that the role of the euro, pound, and yen in global trade remains relatively limited outside their respective economies. The US dollar continues to dominate international transactions, and there is minimal evidence to suggest this trend is reversing, the KSE said.
Additionally, claims that asset confiscation would destabilize sovereign debt markets are overstated: seizure could actually ease pressure on European bond yields by reducing the need for new debt issuance.
Confiscation could result in a temporary rise in borrowing costs, but the effect would be modest and manageable. A 50 basis point increase in yields in confiscating countries (excluding the US) would cost approximately $37.3 billion in additional debt service - Japan, the UK, and France bearing the largest burdens. Yet this is far less than the €230 billion in Russian assets available for Ukraine's defense and reconstruction, the report noted.
If the confiscation occurs, Russia is expected to retaliate through further expropriation of foreign corporate assets, but it has already taken substantial steps in this direction since 2022. According to KSE Institute data, about $167 billion in foreign assets, mostly from G7 companies, have already been written off or seized. The remaining foreign-owned assets in Russia are largely illiquid and far smaller in value than the frozen reserves.
Policymakers should move ahead with seizing Russian sovereign assets, the KSE said. These funds should be used to finance Ukraine's defense and reconstruction, thus avoiding heavier taxpayer burdens in G7 countries. While retaliatory risks exist, they are already materializing, and the potential benefits of seizure far exceed the costs.
Furthermore, this action remains reversible and could still play a role in future peace negotiations, serving as a leverage point in talks with Moscow, according to the report.
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
