Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- Fancy a dinner date in Kyiv on Thursday?
- Why are Turkish companies so prevalent in the reconstruction?
Just The Facts:
- Trump 'very angry' at Putin, threatens tariffs on Russian oil if no Ukraine ceasefire reached
- Ukraine seeks changes to new US economic deal, more investments, sources say
- IMF concludes seventh review of Ukraine's loan program for $400 million in budget support
- Polish development bank launches PLN 250 million loan program to back local firms joining Ukraine's reconstruction
- Norway to allocate NOK 100 million for investment-ready projects in Ukraine
- Sweden to support development of Ukraine's drone and demining tech with $8 million
- Germany allocates additional €7.3 million for Ukraine's energy infrastructure repairs
- Qatar Fund for Development to fund reconstruction of medical complex in Ukraine via Olena Zelenska Foundation
Here's What They Think:
- Defender Media: Ukraine's war-tested tech could help transform France's defense industry
- Foreign Policy: EU faces tricky decision on frozen Russian assets amid the world order shift
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine faced worst wildfire season on record in 2024, with most fires on the frontlines, study shows
The Rebuilders' Social
- Mustafa Nayyem analyzes the planned 'Reconstruction Investment Fund,' TAS Agro sees opportunities in Trump trade wars, Markus Ciupek posts about Knauf factory automation, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation posts about a national large language model for Ukraine.
Dear Subscribers,
Friend-of-URN Swen Lorenz, the German fund manager and investment writer who wrote "99 stock-buying ideas to invest in the reconstruction of Ukraine" for us in February and runs Undervalued-Shares.com, has an impressive dinner routine. He shows up at cities around North America and Europe and calls on local readers to come for dinner to discuss investment ideas.
The photos of the get-togethers make it look like a lot of fun.
This week, he is in Kyiv. He plans to host an informal get-together on Thursday, 3 April. Anyone who wants to discuss current and future prospects for investing in Ukraine's reconstruction is encouraged to join. The goal of the evening is to learn more about opportunities and challenges, and to widen everyone's professional network.
This will start at 6.30pm at a central Kyiv location. If interested, drop Swen an email on swen@undervalued-shares.com or contact him through LinkedIn.
Also, watch out for his Kyiv report on Ukraine Rebuild Newswire!
Speaking of interesting conversation, URN founder Adam Brown spoke recently with Burak Pehlivan, chairman of the Turkish-Ukrainian Business Association, who helped explain why Turkish firms are so prevalent in the reconstruction and war-time Ukraine.
All foreign infrastructure and superstructure firms operating in the country during the last three years of full-scale war are Turkish. In this period, $1.2 billion in critical infrastructure works were completed, and ongoing projects exceed $1 billion in value, Burak says.
And, out of 1,109 companies opened by foreign citizens in Ukraine in 2024, the largest share (18.1%) was opened by Turks, according to analytics firm Opendatabot.
So, why are they so common?
"It's a historical process with many factors: geographic proximity, the presence of a strong Turkish Business Association, excellent relations between two countries and the development of relations between 2014 and 2022," Burak said.
"And another important reason is risk tolerance, and the fact that Turkish companies are using their own capital, without demanding insurance. Our Western partners mostly try to take bank money, plus some insurance from their government or somewhere."
"We don't have such luxury. We have to make careful calculations and then proceed to do our business. And if you only use your your own capital, I would say you are more careful."
However, he said it's also something of a historical accident, or series of accidents, that Turkish companies are operating in the safer areas.
"For example, when investment in renewable energy in Ukraine started before the full-scale war, moneyed Western companies went in first and Turkish companies were left with the areas that were not so good for such development - in the central and western parts of Ukraine."
"As a result, Western companies have now lost, unfortunately, much of their wind power and solar power due to the full-scale invasion. Turkish companies did not lose a single megawatt of capacity."
It's also partly due to Turkey missing out on the rush to invest after the crumbling of the Soviet Union. In the 1990s, Western businesses moved quickly into Eastern Europe and other areas previously dominated by the Soviets. At the time, though, Turkish business was immature.
"Turkey was not ready for that process. There was a limited number of people who could speak a foreign language. Access to capital was very difficult. Turkey had no experience making business abroad, etc," he said.
After the events of 2014, Turkish businesses were eager to seize the opportunity in Ukraine.
"The Turkish companies that have decided to invest, I would say, are very pleased that they have done so."
For questions related to daily news and story suggestions, feel free to message Newsroom Chief Valentina Bajic at valentina@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
For sponsorships, the URN Guidebooks, the Tips for Investors column, and other general matters, email founder Adam Brown at adam.brown@ukrainerebuildnews.com.
Now, on to the day's headlines ...
Trump 'very angry' at Putin, threatens tariffs on Russian oil if no Ukraine ceasefire reached
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he was "very angry" and "pi**ed off" at Vladimir Putin after the Russian president said Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky lacks legitimacy to sign a peace deal, NBC News reported, citing a phone interview with Trump.
Trump, who said Putin's comments were "not going in the right location," also reportedly said he would enforce secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on purchasers of Russian oil if he felt Moscow was obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
"If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia's fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia," Trump told NBC News.
Trump also said that Putin knows he is angry, but noted that he has "a very good relationship with him" and "the anger dissipates quickly ... if he does the right thing."
On Friday, Putin proposed placing Ukraine under temporary external administration as part of a peace settlement effort.
"Under the auspices of the United Nations, with the United States, even with European countries, and, of course, with our partners and friends, we could discuss the possibility of the introduction of temporary governance in Ukraine," Putin said in televised remarks, as quoted by The Associated Press.
Putin added that this would allow Ukraine to "hold democratic elections, to bring to power a viable government that enjoys the trust of the people, and then begin negotiations with them on a peace treaty."
Trump, who has questioned Zelensky's approval rating and called him a dictator, told NBC News he plans to speak with Putin again this week.
Responding to Putin's comments, Zelensky told reporters on Friday that Putin was "afraid of negotiations with Ukraine," as quoted by The AP.
"He is afraid of negotiations with me personally, and by excluding Ukraine's (government), he is suggesting that Ukraine is not an independent actor for him," Zelensky said.
Ukraine seeks changes to new US economic deal, more investments, sources say
Ukraine plans to request modifications to US President Donald Trump's expanded economic deal proposal, including a commitment for increased US investment, an unnamed source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
A draft proposal reviewed by Bloomberg suggests granting Washington control over all major future infrastructure and mineral investments in Ukraine, including in mining, oil and gas, critical mineral extraction, as well as ports, roads, and railways — without a set time limit.
Kyiv fears the deal could hinder its EU membership ambitions and obligate it to repay all US military and economic aid received since the war began, the news agency reported on Saturday.
On Friday, Ukrainian officials held a video call with US counterparts, including legal experts, to seek clarification on the nearly 60-page draft agreement, according to a source.
Under the proposal, which contains no security guarantees for Ukraine, the US would have priority over profits deposited into a special reconstruction investment fund under its control. Notably, the agreement defines the "material and financial benefits" provided to Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022 as the US contribution to this fund.
The source told Bloomberg that Ukrainian officials expressed concerns about this part of the proposal during the video call.
On Friday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv that Ukraine will reject any minerals agreement that jeopardizes its EU integration and that it will not recognize past US aid as loans, noting that it is too soon to assess the vastly expanded deal proposed by Washington, as quoted by Reuters.
Zelensky said that the new proposal was "entirely different" from the earlier framework he was meant to sign in Washington on Feb 28. The signing was postponed following a tense exchange between him and Trump in the Oval Office.
On Monday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he thinks Zelensky is "trying to back out of the rare earth deal."
"And if he does that he's got some problems. Big, big problems. We made a deal on rare earth and now he's saying, 'Well, you know, I want to renegotiate the deal'. He wants to be a member of NATO. Well, he was never going to be a member of NATO. He understands that. So if he's looking to renegotiate the deal, he's got big problems," Trump stated.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that Ukraine is reviewing the newest version of the economic partnership agreement with the US, and the signing of it may happen as soon as this week.
IMF concludes seventh review of Ukraine's loan program for $400 million in budget support
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said its executive board completed the seventh review of Ukraine's $15.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, allowing for a $400 million disbursement to support the country's budget.
The funding will bring the total disbursements to Ukraine under the program to $10.1 billion.
"Ukraine's performance under the program remains strong. All end-December and continuous quantitative performance criteria were met as well as the majority of structural benchmarks," the IMF said in a press release on Friday.
Structural reforms that Ukraine has committed to under the program cover public finances, the financial sector, monetary and exchange rate policies, governance, anti-corruption efforts, and the energy sector.
The IMF's EFF arrangement with Ukraine was approved by the IMF board in March 2023 and covers the 2023-2027 period.
Through the six earlier EFF reviews, Ukraine has attracted to the state budget about $9.8 billion of the total. In 2025, Ukraine plans to attract $2.7 billion via the program through four quarterly reviews, the country's Finance Ministry said earlier.
Polish development bank launches PLN 250 million loan program to back local firms joining Ukraine's reconstruction
The Polish state development bank, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), said it will provide a total of PLN 250 million ($65 million) to three local financial partners for on-lending to local companies that want to take part in Ukraine's reconstruction.
The funding was made available to BGK by Poland's Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy.
"This money will be used to strengthen exports, organize production, transport and logistics capabilities for companies that want to operate between Poland and Ukraine," Deputy Minister of Funds and Regional Policy Jan Szyszko said.
BGK said in a press release on Friday it has signed agreements with local lender Bank Ochrony Środowiska, the Polish cooperative bank Poznański Bank Spółdzielczy-owned Social and Economic Investment Company TISE, and a consortium of Lublin and Biłgoraj's regional development agencies, which will provide preferential loans to interested Polish firms.
The maximum loan value to be provided under the program amounts to PLN 10 million. The interest rate is set at 2% and the repayment period is 10 years, with the application process scheduled to start in April.
Under the program, companies can use the loans to invest in exports and imports of products and services to and from Ukraine, to improve transportation, storage, and logistics services, as well as the development of resources necessary to take part in the projects related to Ukraine's reconstruction, among others.
"Poland has been Ukraine's second trading partner since 2022 – we have overtaken Germany and are second only to China. We are the largest recipient of Ukrainian exports. Despite the war, trade remains high, and the prospects for the post-war period are very good. Trade is the foundation on which we will build investments by Polish entrepreneurs in Ukraine," Chairman of the Council for Cooperation with Ukraine Paweł Kowal said.
In February, BGK opened a representative office in Kyiv to facilitate projects and investments funded by the European Commission for the reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine. The office is also intended to serve as a contact hub for businesses and institutions.
Norway to allocate NOK 100 million for investment-ready projects in Ukraine
Norway will provide NOK 100 million ($9.5 million) in 2025-2026 to support investment-ready projects in Ukraine through the project Support for Enterprise Development for Ukraine.
Applicants from all countries, including Ukrainian, international, and Norwegian companies, can apply for funding that will target priority sectors, including sustainable energy, food security and agriculture, and critical infrastructure reconstruction.
"Many companies feel that the risk of investing in a country at war is too high. This call aims to reduce this risk by promoting investment-ready projects and facilitating increased investment. Business investment is essential to strengthen Ukraine's economy and contribute to the country's reconstruction," the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) said in a press release on Friday.
Norad will focus on projects valued at NOK 5 million or more and on applicants with a turnover exceeding NOK 25 million. Up to 50% of the requested funds can be allocated for equipment investments.
All applications will be assessed on an ongoing basis, as long as there are funds available, Norad said, noting that the grant can cover up to 50% of project costs, with the applicant responsible for the remaining half.
Sweden to support development of Ukraine's drone and demining tech with $8 million
The Swedish government said it will allocate a total of SEK 80 million ($8 million) to support Ukraine in developing its own drone and demining technologies.
"This support ensures that Ukraine can develop its drone technology and mine clearance capabilities. It will help the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian society," Sweden's Defense Minister Pål Jonson said.
The funding will be disbursed through capability coalitions in the demining and drone areas within the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) framework, the Swedish government said in a press release on Friday.
The UDCG is a 57-nation coalition formed by the US to coordinate global defense procurement, production, and sustainability efforts for Ukraine's self-defense. Member nations' defense ministers meet regularly at NATO headquarters in Ramstein, Germany, or virtually.
The SEK 80 million in funding is part of the Swedish government's 18th military support package to Ukraine, which was announced in January.
The package, valued at SEK 13.5 billion, is Sweden's largest-ever support package to Kyiv and is aimed at boosting Ukraine's long-range capability.
Since the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, Sweden has given Ukraine SEK 61.9 billion in military support.
Germany allocates additional €7.3 million for Ukraine's energy infrastructure repairs
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) said it will provide an additional €7.27 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund to support the repair of the country's energy infrastructure.
"Russian attacks on Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure continue unabated. These attacks severely affect Ukrainian civilians. Germany is responding to the ongoing emergency situation by once again contributing to the Energy Community's Ukraine Energy Support Fund," said Germany's Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck.
Since the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022 and by the end of 2024, Germany has contributed a total of €390 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, BMWK said in a press release on Friday.
Germany remains the largest donor to the fund, which has so far raised about €1.15 billion, according to the statement.
The fund was launched in April 2022 by the Ukrainian Energy Ministry and the European Commission under the Energy Community Secretariat. The Energy Community carries out the tenders for the goods to be procured with the help of an external procurement agency and monitors the use of funds.
Qatar Fund for Development to fund reconstruction of medical complex in Ukraine via Olena Zelenska Foundation
Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) said it has signed a grant agreement with Olena Zelenska Foundation (OZF) of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's wife, to fund the reconstruction of a medical complex in Ukraine.
The grant will support the construction of new hospital facilities and the restoration of war-damaged infrastructure, increasing capacity to over 200 beds and securing essential healthcare services for the community.
In a press release last week, QFFD did not disclose the size of the grant nor the medical complex it is to be rebuilt.
Established in 2002, QFFD is Qatar's government agency responsible for the state's international development and foreign aid.
Olena Zelenska Foundation was first presented in New York in September 2022. A charitable organization, its stated goals are the restoration of Ukraine's human capital as well as the reconstruction of medical and educational institutions in the country.
Defender Media: Ukraine's war-tested tech could help transform France's defense industry
Ukraine's defense industry has developed a highly adaptive and cost-effective approach to modern warfare, particularly in drone production, whereas France's defense industry remains slow, expensive, and focused on high-end technology that is often impractical for battlefield use, Arnaud Dassier, entrepreneur and investor, and Mat Hauser, co-founder of Strateon intelligence company, wrote in an op-ed for Ukraine's Defender Media.
The authors state, however, that France and Ukraine's defence industries are complementary, presenting an opportunity for strategic partnerships. French defense companies could benefit from Ukraine's battlefield-tested innovations, manufacturing capacities, and cost-effective production, while Ukraine could gain financial resources, credibility, and access to international markets. Other European nations, such as Germany, the Czech Republic, and Scandinavian countries, are already establishing production partnerships with Ukraine, positioning themselves for long-term defence collaboration, they wrote.
Foreign Policy: EU faces tricky decision on frozen Russian assets amid the world order shift
The wavering support of the US for Ukraine has intensified Europe's debate over seizing frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine, Charles Lichfield, the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, wrote for Foreign Policy. Lichfield notes that European leaders are increasingly advocating for the seizure of Russian assets, despite the risks involved.
However, he states that concerns remain over the risks of setting a dangerous precedent, as trust in G-7 financial systems underpins their global role as safe havens for sovereign wealth. If Europe proceeds with asset seizures, it could erode confidence in its financial stability, complicate ongoing efforts to boost defense spending and economic stability in the region, and prompt other nations to seek alternative reserve options.
Ukraine faced worst wildfire season on record in 2024, with major fires tracking the frontlines, study shows
Ukraine suffered its worst wildfire season ever recorded last year, with the number of fires and the burnt area closely matching the frontlines of the fighting, according to a study published by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.
The study found that the total mapped burn of 965,360 hectares from 8,753 fires in Ukraine in 2024 was equivalent to the entire burned area recorded across Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa in 2023.
The fires closely followed the line of the war front between Ukraine and Russia, highlighting the devastating impact of Russia's invasion on Ukraine's forests. Additionally, the report suggests that the effects of the conflict in 2024 have been even more severe than in previous fire seasons since the war began.
Most of the significant fires took place in the summer, when the Fire Weather Index was at its highest, with the two largest fires exceeding 8,000 hectares, according to the study. Notably, the most striking aspect of the wildfire season was the sheer number of large fires, with 317 fires mapping over 500 hectares, including 110 that were larger than 1,000 hectares, it said. Agricultural areas and natural land were the most affected by the fires.
Overall, the 2024 wildfire season in the European Union ended with a total burnt area of 419,298 hectares, slightly above the average for 2006-2023, according to the study. The Balkan region, both inside and outside the EU, saw significant wildfire activity, and while the season appeared average overall, there were major wildfire incidents in Greece and Madeira.
This report provides an annual summary of the 2024 wildfire season based on data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), it said. The final, complete analysis, developed in collaboration with the EFFIS country network, will be published in the last quarter of 2025.
The Joint Research Centre provides independent, evidence-based knowledge and science in support of EU policies, according to its website. It cooperates with research and policy organisations in the member states, with the European institutions and agencies, as well as with scientific partners in Europe and internationally.
Social Media Posts
Nayyem Analyzes Planned 'Reconstruction Investment Fund'
Mustafa Nayyem, the former chief of the State Agency for Restoration of Ukraine who is now the senior anti-corruption and reconstruction adviser for Pro-Integrity, posted his analysis over the weekend of the agreement between Ukraine and the US government to establish the Reconstruction Investment Fund.
Nayyem published the text of the agreement on his Telegram channel and published an analysis on LinkedIn that concludes, in part, "Ukraine has no powers, no guarantees, and no real access to management in this structure. But this is not a dogma, not a final judgment. And right now is the best time to turn this architecture into a partnership model that works for both parties."
Trump Trade Wars Create Opportunities for Ukraine
Anton Zhemerdieiev, deputy CEO of major Ukrainian agribusiness firm TAS Agro, promoted an interview he did with Forbes Ukraine stating that the Trump-era trade wars are opening up new opportunities for Ukrainian agricultural exports to the European Union.
"Specifically, the potential introduction of a 25% tariff on U.S. car imports to the EU may trigger reciprocal restrictions on American agricultural products. This creates a chance for Ukraine to strengthen its foothold in Europe. At the same time, these shifts pose certain risks—particularly in African and Middle Eastern markets, where competition may intensify."
Built Back Better
Markus Cuipek, co-owner of Time & Space Ukraine, a provider of manufacturing services, recapped the highlights of a visit organized by AHK Ukraine - German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce to the Knauf factory in Kyiv to see the automation and AI used in manufacturing.
"🏭 The 𝗞𝗻𝗮𝘂𝗳 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝘆𝗶𝘃 is one of the most modern production sites, with an impressive annual output of " 25 million m² of drywall and 200,000 tons of dry mixes, with 425 workers," Cuipek said. Almost half of the workers were relocated from Donbas, where the previous Knauf factory was destroyed.
Ukrainian Large Language Model
The Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine posted that a national large language model being created for Ukraine "will serve as the foundation for AI assistants, chatbots, and voice assistants, all designed for Ukrainians and the government."
"This LLM will also open up new opportunities for Ukrainian businesses. Entrepreneurs will be able to create their own AI products based on the large language model — from automated chatbots for websites to voice assistants for companies," the ministry said
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
