Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- US expected to reveal Trump's plan to end Ukraine war next week, sources say
- UK to provide GBP 55 million in fresh funding to Ukraine for grain, energy and business recovery
- Ukraine discusses setting up capital markets body under EBRD auspices
- Accord Import to invest $14 million in new Ukraine factory after Jysk boosts international cabinet orders
- Italy and UNEP sign €2 million tech transfer accord to boost Ukraine's energy sustainability
- Ukraine sees potential in buying and storing LNG from the US, foreign minister says
Here's What They Think:
- The Conversation: Europe's defense strategy fails amid US Ukraine policy concerns
- Foreign Affairs: Russia's invasion of Ukraine yields little economic gain
- Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Putin seeks to reshape global order, not just seize Ukrainian territory
Sober Second Thought:
- Lack of state policy and support and weak institutional capacity hinder investments in critical raw materials in Ukraine, analysis finds
US expected to reveal Trump's plan to end Ukraine war next week, sources say
US allies anticipate that President Donald Trump's administration will unveil a long-awaited plan to end the war on Ukraine at the Feb 14-16 Munich Security Conference in Germany, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.
Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, is expected to present the blueprint to US allies, according to the sources.
In recent weeks, Kellogg and other officials have hinted at what Trump allies call "peace through strength," Bloomberg reported.
Key elements include potentially freezing the conflict, leaving Russian-occupied territories in limbo, and providing Ukraine with security guarantees to prevent future attacks from Moscow.
Later this month, Kellogg is expected to visit Kyiv and other locations in the European Union for the first time, according to the sources. In Ukraine, he is set to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
At the same time, Zelensky plans to travel to multiple Gulf nations following the Munich conference, the sources added.
Talks about a potential peace deal for Ukraine have intensified recently. On Tuesday, Zelensky said he would agree to sit at the negotiating table with Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to end the war. Zelensky's comments came a day after Trump said that US and Russian officials were "already talking" about ending the war.
Last week, Kellogg stated the US wants Kyiv to hold elections in the coming months once a ceasefire deal with Moscow is concluded.
Kellogg, who was the chief of staff for the White House National Security Council during Trump's first term, and Fred Fleitz, who also served as chief of staff to the National Security Council under Trump, presented in June last year their plan to end the war in Ukraine to Trump, who was then running for president, they said in an interview with Reuters at the time.
That plan proposed freezing the battle lines at their current positions and compelling both Kyiv and Moscow to engage in negotiations.
The key elements of that plan were first outlined in Kellogg and Fleitz's research paper published by the America First Policy Institute in April 2024.
It is not clear, however, whether elements of Kellogg and Fleitz's paper were used to draft the plan expected to be presented in Munich.
UK to provide GBP 55 million in fresh funding to Ukraine for grain, energy and business recovery
The UK will allocate GBP 55 million ($69 million) to Ukraine through a new funding package announced on Wednesday, ahead of Britain's Foreign Minister David Lammy's visit to Kyiv.
"Our support for Ukraine remains unbreakable. We are determined to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position, both in its fight against Russia and beyond, with our long-term relationship cemented by the 100 Year Partnership," Lammy said.
Of the total funding, GBP 3 million will be directed towards deliveries of Ukrainian grain and other food produce to Syria, GBP 17 million will go to innovative energy projects, GBP 10 million to help the recovery of Ukrainian businesses, and GBP 25 million to support family and community-based services, the UK's Foreign Office said in a press release.
Last month, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a 100-year partnership agreement to deepen cooperation in defense, economy, education, science, technology, and other areas.
The agreement included a commitment by the UK to provide Ukraine with a minimum of $3.6 billion in military assistance annually for as long as needed. The Foreign Office said at the time that the UK will also provide Ukraine with GBP 100 million in humanitarian aid and GBP 40 million to support the country's economy.
Zelensky's office said following a meeting with Lammy that the two particularly discussed the implementation of the partnership agreement, as well as other forms of assistance both at the bilateral level and within multilateral mechanisms.
Ukraine discusses setting up capital markets body under EBRD auspices
Ukraine's National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) chief Ruslan Magomedov said he has held talks with Francis Malige, director of the Financial Institutions Department at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), about creating a capital market body in Ukraine that would operate under EBRD auspices.
"We talked about the development of capital markets infrastructure and joint strategic plans," Magomedov said. "Among them, the creation of a separate consolidated structure that would accumulate all elements in the market into one institution and work under the auspices of the EBRD."
That would ensure that capital markets become an effective source of financing and attract more foreign and domestic investments, Magomedov wrote in a post on Telegram on Tuesday, adding that would be especially significant during Ukraine's recovery.
Ukraine's latest memorandum on economic and financial policies under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program with the International Monetary Fund from December, says that Ukraine's central bank (NBU), NSSMC, and the country's Finance Ministry, in consultation with international financial institutions, aimed to develop a model for capital market infrastructure development that will facilitate the engagement of foreign investors by end-2024.
The NBU and the NSSMC have implemented the necessary mechanisms for foreign investors to directly access marketable debt instruments such as municipal bonds and other Ukraine reconstruction-related debt instruments, the memorandum read.
The NSSMC, National Depositary, and NBU also said in the document that they will target the establishment of a direct link between the Central Securities Depository (CSD) and foreign CSDs by end-July 2025 to expand foreign investors' access to a broader range of instruments and markets.
Accord Import to invest $14 million in new Ukraine factory after Jysk boosts international cabinet orders
Accord Import, a cabinet furniture manufacturer based in the western Ukrainian city of Khmelnytskyi, will invest $14 million to triple its production capacity after an increase in orders from Danish retailer Jysk, its main buyer.
The project will include developing a new factory in the region to boost production capacity to 1.2 million square meters of cabinet furniture per month, from the current 420,000.
The expansion will make Accord Import one of the five biggest household furniture makers in Europe, said Dmytro Kysylevsky, chairman of the parliamentary committee on Economic Development, who announced the investment.
He said the first production line will launch in July and the plant will be operating at full capacity in September. He added that a 1.1 mW solar power plant has been built to help power the factory and an additional 2.8 mW is being built. He added that 140 residents of Khmelnytsky will work on the new production.
About 70% of Accord Import's orders for cabinet furniture come from Danish household goods retailer Jysk's international network, which increased its order volume by a third in 2024, he said.
The project "will allow the company to enter the top 5 cabinet furniture manufacturers in Europe," said Kysylevsky. The new plant will allow the company to expand into new markets in the Middle East, South Asia, and South America, he added.
Another company is building a plant in Khmelnytskyi to supply Accord Import with the cellular cardboard used in packaging the furniture, Kysylevsky said. Kronospan, which supplies Accord Import with wood panels, has recently launched a production line in the Rivne region.
Italy and UNEP sign €2 million tech transfer accord to boost Ukraine's energy sustainability
The Italian embassy in Kyiv have signed an agreement with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to launch a €2 million project to strengthen energy sustainability of Ukrainian cities.
The fund, which is provided by Italy, aims to support Ukraine's recovery towards a more decentralized and sustainable energy system. The project is in line with the "Build Back Better" principle, which aims to increase efficiency and security.
The project will focus on training and technology transfer, bringing together Italian and Ukrainian experts to enhance knowledge sharing in sustainable energy management, said Italian Ambassador to Ukraine Carlo Formosa.
Formosa added that the project will also help the Ukrainian government in shaping long-term energy transition policies, which could attract investment in the renewable energy sector.
"The project provides for a detailed analysis of the opportunities for integrating renewable energy sources into the Ukrainian energy system, focusing on assessing the solar photovoltaic potential and the possibility of developing microgrids to strengthen the energy autonomy of cities," Formsa stated
The project is part of Italy's broader strategy to support recovery and energy security in Ukraine, which Rome has so far allocated €125 million for.
Besides energy security, unnamed sources told Reuters in December that Rome was preparing its 10th military aid package for Ukraine. The Italian government has also recently pledged €45 million to restore five architectural monuments in the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa that have been damaged during the Russian invasion.
Ukraine sees potential in buying and storing LNG from the US, foreign minister says
Ukraine sees "immense" potential in buying and storing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States after the transit of the Russian gas through the country's territory ended, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Wednesday.
"Ukraine has exceptionally powerful underground gas storage facilities, which pose points of shared interest for both beneficial collaboration and enhancing Europe's energy security," Sybiha stated at a joint press conference with his British counterpart David Lammy.
Sybiha also said that "there will be ample gas supplies if they are stored in our facilities," which would allow Ukraine to play a critical role as a guarantor of European energy stability.
Sybiha, who was answering a question about US President Donald Trump's statement that he wanted Ukraine to supply the US with rare earth minerals as compensation for financial support in the war, also said that President Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan" includes a point on Ukraine's natural resources.
"This idea is (...) a guarantee of major international business presence in Ukraine and vested interests of our closest allies – the US – in developing these raw materials deposits and ensuring their protection," the minister stated.
Sybiha also said he sees significant opportunities for American businesses in Ukraine's reconstruction. "This will be one of the most ambitious projects of the century, and one of the largest opportunities for our allies," he said.
The Conversation: Europe’s defense strategy fails amid US Ukraine policy concerns
Political divisions, economic uncertainty, and the unpredictability of US support under Donald Trump's administration leave the European Union struggling to provide Ukraine with the aid it requires, Stefan Wolff wrote in an op-ed published by the Conversation.
Wolff warns that Europe's fragmented response and lack of a clear defense strategy could weaken its ability to counter future security threats.
Foreign Affairs: Russia's invasion of Ukraine yields little economic gain
Russia’s occupation of southeastern Ukrainian territories may have been driven in part by economic ambitions, but the devastation of war, depopulation, and sanctions have severely limited any potential economic benefits, according to an op-ed published by Foreign Affairs.
The author argued that rather than gaining a strategic or financial prize, Russia faces the immense costs of war and occupation, making its conquest a Pyrrhic victory at best.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Putin seeks to reshape global order, not just seize Ukrainian territory
Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine is not about territorial gains, bur rather an attempt to reshape the current international security order and replace it with a system that favors great powers, Ukraine's Former Minister of Defense Andriy Zagorodnyuk wrote in an op-ed.
Zagorodnyuk argued that only a decisive Ukrainian victory, backed by Western military aid, could prevent further Russian aggression.
Lack of state policy and support, weak institutional capacity hinder investments in critical raw materials in Ukraine, analysis finds
Three main obstacles hampering investments in critical raw materials in Ukraine are lack of state policy, absence of state support measures, and weak institutional capacity, according to an analysis by the We Build Ukraine think tank.
Along with the main barriers, We Build Ukraine identified several other obstacles that fall into those three categories including secrecy of information on critical raw materials, poor quality of geological information, balance sheet reserves of mineral deposits that are not standardized in accordance with international standards and complicated procedure for obtaining land plots for subsoil use.
The absence of instruments to stimulate the industry, fiscal incentives, credit incentives, state guarantees, export support, war risk insurance, and credit and insurance support for mineral exports are also seen as barriers to investing in Ukraine's critical raw materials sector.
We Build Ukraine noted that Ukraine holds significant potential for investment in the extraction, processing, and supply of critical raw materials to international markets but has yet to establish a clear strategic vision for developing new economic sectors.
As of 2021, the metals and mining industry accounted for 6.1% of Ukraine's GDP, with the country's traditional advantage stemming from large reserves, a low-cost structure, and established capacities in several key sectors.
The sector is currently grappling with asset loss or damage and reduced capacity utilization due to disruptions in fuel and electricity supplies, transportation infrastructure, and a shortage of skilled labor, We Build Ukraine wrote.
Ferrous metals mining, primarily centered in the Kryvyi Rih basin, remains largely under Ukrainian control, while non-ferrous materials, including precious metals and rare earth elements, continue to drive sector growth. As a consequence of the invasion, the export focus has shifted toward ores, resulting in lower profitability and infrastructure challenges.
The strategic development of the critical materials industry can enhance Ukraine's independence, defense capabilities, economic growth, and transition to a green economy, attracting international investment, the analysis read.
The analysis is based on the results of the Conference "Strategic Resources of Ukraine: Scenarios for the Development of the Subsoil Use Industry," held as part of the implementation of the Economic Growth Strategy of Ukraine until 2040, developed by Boston Consulting Group in cooperation with We Build Ukraine.
Wooing Europe's Private Sector
Ukrainian Economy Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko recapped her "first major meeting of the year with EU economy and trade ministers" to talk about attracting the European private sector to Ukraine.
She met with government representatives from "France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Estonia, Austria, Ireland, Slovakia, Hungary, Latvia, the Czech Republic, and Cyprus, as well as nearly 50 representatives of Ukrainian businesses in manufacturing, metallurgy, military-tech, IT, energy, infrastructure, and logistics."
Draft Timber Law
The European Business Association, whose members include major European companies operating in Ukraine, applauded the passage at the committee level in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's unicameral parliament, of a draft law "On the Timber Market."
The association, which had experts involved in talks on drafting the law, particularly pointed out that the law adopts a cascading principle for tinber exchange auctions, a continued moratorium on raw timber exports and priority buying rights for domestic processors at timber exchange auction.
'White Business Club' Explained
Integrites, the Ukrainian law firm, promoted a new article explaining the "White Business Club," of a list of taxpayers with a high level of voluntary tax compliance, and the benefits inclusion on the list can bring.
Members of the list, called bona fide taxpayers, are not subject to audits, except in certain cases and in certain industries, such as in the gambling industry and companies in the field of excisable products.
Top 10 Electricity Importers
ExPro Consulting, a Ukrainian oil and gas consultancy, promoted a brief article and infographic highlighting the top 10 electricity importer companies of 2024 and the countries they imported from.
The biggest importer was D. Trading, followed by Energy Company of Ukraine and DE Trading. Overall, electricity imports increased 5.5-fold last year to 4.4 million MWh, with Hungary the biggest single supplier, accounting for 39%.
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