Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Ukraine's anti-corruption progress stalled in 2024, Transparency International index shows
- US tariff to hit Ukrainian steelmakers already damaged by war, economy minister says
- European Investment Bank chief visits Kyiv in first official trip outside EU
- Ukraine's stocks surge to pre-war levels on Warsaw exchange
- Daughter of Trump's Ukraine envoy stands 'at confluence of pro-Trump and pro-Ukraine America,' Washington Post says
- Lloyd's market positioned to guide Ukraine's reconstruction, says MS Amlin exec
Here's What They Think:
- Carnegie: Ukraine, allies should be careful not to repeat fate of Minsk agreements
- The Conversation: Russia's isolation has not made it less dangerous
Sober Second Thought:
- Two-thirds of Ukrainian children experience changes in eating behaviors due to war, study finds
Ukraine's anti-corruption progress stalled in 2024, Transparency International index shows
Ukraine's scoring in Transparency International's 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) dropped by one point to 35 out of 100, ranking the country 105th out of the 180 countries on the benchmark.
This decline follows a three-point increase in 2023, suggesting that recent anti-corruption efforts have either stalled or failed to produce lasting results, Transparency International said.
Despite legislative reforms aimed at aligning with European standards, weak enforcement and political resistance have hindered meaningful progress, the watchdog added.
"A decrease of one point remains within the margin of error, yet this result is significant," said TI Ukraine Executive Director Andrii Borovyk. "This decline may indicate stagnation in the fight against corruption, despite the active legislative and governmental measures implemented last year."
"Ukraine's CPI–2024 result should serve as a signal to the authorities that negative trends in reducing corruption have intensified—trends that could significantly affect the country's reputation in the future," Borovyk noted. "It is necessary to introduce systemic changes in governance."
Among its neighbors, Ukraine remains ahead of Russia, which ranks 154th and Belarus, which ranks 114th. Among Western neighbors, the country comes last, behind Hungary, which ranks 82nd place with 41 points out of 100. Globally, Denmark led the list, in the #1 spot, while South Sudan was last, at 180.
Like Ukraine, most EU candidate countries have seen little to no progress in combating corruption. Georgia (53 points, 53rd place), Montenegro (46 points, 65th place), and Turkey (34 points, 107th place) showed no changes, while Serbia dropped by 1 point to 35 points (105th place), and both North Macedonia (40 points, 88th place) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (33 points, 114th place) declined by 2 points.
Among EU candidates, Moldova and Albania showed slight improvements. Moldova gained 1 point, reaching 43 points (76th place), whereas Albania saw the most significant improvement among EU candidates, rising by 5 points to 42 points (80th place).
TI recommendations for Kyiv in 2025 include strengthening the capacity of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) to perform independent wiretapping, finalizing external performance audit for NABU, and introducing legislative amendments to enable Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) to handle requests for extradition.
In January, NABU opened a criminal case investigation involving the country's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. The anti-corruption watchdog accused Umerov of illegally sidelining Maryna Bezrukova, the head of the Defence Procurement Agency (DPA), by refusing to renew her contract after criticizing the agency's work.
US tariff to hit Ukrainian steelmakers already damaged by war, economy minister says
The US decision to raise tariffs on steel imports to a flat 25% will hit Ukraine-based exporters such as Interpipe and ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, which have already been several hit by the war with Russia, Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said.
"For the past few years, we have been making every effort to keep Ukrainian steel exempt from the 25% tariffs in the US," Svyrydenko said in a LinkedIn post. "The US decision from March 12 to impose tariffs on steel from other countries, including Ukraine, will impact the metallurgical industry."
She said metallurgical products accounted for 57.9% of Ukraine's exports to the US last year by value, or $503.3 million of the total $869.1 million. The largest export items were cast iron, at $363.4 million, pipes, at $112.9 million, rods at $15.2 million, wire at $4 million, and metal structures, at $1.3 million.
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Interpipe, the main exporters of metallurgical products from Ukraine, have been struggling with repeated attacks after three years of full-scale war with Russia, plus power cuts and a severe labor crunch as many workers are called up to join the military, as well as other problems.
"These companies have been severely affected by the war, as has the entire metallurgical industry," she said.
She made the comments a day after the US announced the decision to impose a flat 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from all countries, also eliminating exemptions on thousands of specific products, saying the move would help revive US industry.
Svyrydenko said she is "actively working with our partners to find the best solution" and argued that "the share of Ukrainian products in U.S. steel imports is minimal and does not have a significant impact on American manufacturers."
In the company's latest annual report, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih CEO Mauro Longobardo said that "our business plan is focused on the survival of the company."
"We made every effort to achieve zero losses, we did everything we could: reducing costs within the company, optimising consumption. But this did not happen for several reasons."
"The work of a blast furnace and the fire in the coke oven battery due to a power cut in the summer, its loss, played a role," he said. "In addition, there are expensive logistics, an unstable energy supply situation due to constant enemy attacks, a lack of personnel and depressed foreign markets to which we can currently export our products. All this has a negative impact on our competitiveness and therefore on our financial results."
European Investment Bank chief visits Kyiv in first official trip outside EU
European Investment Bank (EIB) Group President Nadia Calviño on Monday visited Kyiv in her first official trip outside the European Union since assuming the position a year ago to exhibit the lender's long-term commitment to the war-torn country, the EIB said in a press release.
"Support for Ukraine is a top priority and that is why I am so pleased to be here to announce new major projects for SMEs, energy, water and other essential services that will help people to continue with their daily lives and support the country's economic resilience, while also laying the foundation for a stronger Ukraine on its path to EU membership," Calviño said.
During a joint press conference with Ukrainiab President Volodymyr Zelensky, Calviño stated the bank and Ukraine had signed "agreements to mobilize around €1 billion in investment in the public sector and in the private sector," as seen in a video posted by Euronews.
Most of the funding signed on Monday was either announced or approved by the EIB earlier. It includes €420 million to restore Ukraine's critical civilian infrastructure and services, a total of €100 million in loans and guarantees to Ukrainian banks Ukreximbank, ProCredit Bank and Ukrgasbank for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, a €40 million EIB loan for the rollout of EU's 112 emergency system in Ukraine, as well as a €16.5 million grant provided by the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action to an EIB International Climate Initiative Trust.
Since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, the EIB has provided more than €2 billion in assistance to Ukraine, Zelensky said on Monday.
"I know there is a decision to invest an additional €2 billion this year in projects in Ukraine, which we can count on," Zelensky added.
Ukraine's stocks surge to pre-war levels on Warsaw exchange
WIG Ukraine, the index for Ukrainian stocks on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), surged nearly 25% in recent days, reaching pre-war levels, Polish business outlet Puls Biznesu reported.
Financial markets have responded positively to US promises of a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war. After Donald Trump's election victory, Ukraine's sovereign bonds also rose as investors anticipated a quicker resolution to the conflict.
Investors anticipate Ukraine's territorial recovery and EU accession talks, boosting opportunities for both Ukrainian and Polish firms on the WSE, analyst Jakub Szkopek of Erste Securities told Puls Biznesu on Sunday.
"This is especially true for (Polish) construction companies and manufacturers of building materials with experience in the Ukrainian market," said Szkopek.
Szkopek noted that the Ukrainian equity index's growth positively impacted the stock prices of the largest Polish companies.
The WIG Ukraine index, which tracks the financial returns of WSE-listed Ukrainian companies, includes the largest agricultural holdings, such as Kernel, Astarta, Ovostar, and IMC.
Daughter of Trump's Ukraine envoy stands 'at confluence of pro-Trump and pro-Ukraine America,' Washington Post says
Meaghan Mobbs, daughter of US President Donald Trump's Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, has been deeply involved in humanitarian aid efforts in Ukraine since the war began, according to an op-ed published by the Washington Post.
As the president of the R.T. Weatherman Foundation, Mobbs has led efforts to deliver aid and evacuate American volunteers, wrote columnist Jim Geraghty. Her organization has established logistics hubs, supplied medical aid, and repatriated the bodies of fallen soldiers.
"Mobbs stands at the not-so-common confluence of pro-Trump and pro-Ukraine America," he wrote, adding "The Ukrainians might not have a better friend than Mobbs."
Besides her relief work, Mobbs has been vocal about the need for strong US support for Ukraine, ther newaspaper said. She has criticized delays in military aid and called for greater accountability in weapons deliveries.
Mobbs' stance reflects a strong commitment to Ukraine's defense and sovereignty. Her work places her at the intersection of pro-Ukraine advocacy and conservative foreign policy perspectives.
"One of the new great falsehoods being pushed by bad actors is there is nothing worth fighting and dying for," said Mobbs on X earlier this month. "Peace at all costs isn’t peace, it’s surrender disguised as virtue. True peace requires strength, sacrifice, and the willingness to defend what is right—even when it costs."
Longer reads
Lloyd's market positioned to guide Ukraine's reconstruction, says MS Amlin exec
The specialist insurance and reinsurance market known as Lloyd's of London is uniquely positioned to lead the way in Ukraine's reconstruction with its centuries-long history of underwriting the world's most complex risks, Jamie Cleary, head of crisis management at UK insurer and reinsurer MS Amlin, wrote in a commentary for The Insurer.
Cleary wrote that the war in Ukraine is not only a humanitarian disaster, but also an economic one, with the World Bank estimating that rebuilding the country will cost $486 billion over the next decade.
Recovery of Ukraine's fixed assets will require significant capital investment. "However, capital will only go where capital is protected," Cleary wrote, adding that the war has shaken investor confidence, which has created barriers to trade and investments.
Cleary argued that Ukraine's reconstruction presents a historic opportunity for the Lloyd's market, but seizing it requires action, innovation, and partnership.
The Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Guarantee Facility (URGF), a €110 million partnership between professional services firm Aon, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and MS Amlin, is an example of what can be achieved, Cleary wrote.
The facility was developed to address the challenges reinsurance companies face in the country by providing them with a guarantee covering losses on war-related risks underwritten by Ukrainian insurers, Cleary wrote. The scheme will initially cover inland cargo, motor vehicle damage, and railway rolling stock, but is expected to expand to a broader range of assets as market demand evolves.
Development of the facility provides three valuable lessons for Lloyds's market on its role in Ukraine's reconstruction, including the necessity of making bold, but calculated risks to support the country's recovery, the importance of creating tailored solutions, as well as the importance of public-private partnerships, Cleary argued.
"The risks in Ukraine are undeniably daunting. Underwriting in war zones requires rigorous risk selection, meticulous governance and data-driven decision-making. Insurers have a duty to all stakeholders to ensure they write risks and manage exposures responsibly. But the URGF demonstrates what's possible if we take measured risks when others won't," Cleary wrote.
Carnegie: Ukraine, allies should be careful not to repeat fate of Minsk agreements
Ukraine and its allies should be careful in the potential peace negotiations with Russia to avoid mistakes that led to the signing of the 2014 Minsk Agreements intended to de-escalate the war in Donbas, Mykhailo Soldatenko, an attorney in Ukraine and New York, wrote in an op-ed for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Although maybe successful in limited scope, the Minsk agreements were not enough to completely end hostilities or deter Russia from invading Ukraine in 2022, Soldatenko wrote, noting that any potential peace deal for the current conflict needs to provide firmer and reliable security commitments for Ukraine.
The Conversation: Russia's isolation has not made it less dangerous
The narrowing of Russia's global influence, the domestic economic problems, and other issues the nation is facing amid the ongoing war in Ukraine have not necessarily made it less dangerous, Ronald H. Linden, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, wrote in an op-ed for The Conversation.
Some Kremlin watchers argue that an isolated Russia is less vulnerable to US pressure, while a weakened Putin may grow more reckless, even with nuclear threats, if retreating in Ukraine risks his grip on power, Linden wrote.
Two-thirds of Ukrainian children experience changes in eating behaviors due to war, study finds
Two-thirds of Ukrainian children experience disruptions in eating behaviors due to the ongoing war with Russia, with the highest prevalence of changes seen among children between the ages of 5 and 10, a study conducted by a group of scientists from the University of Helsinki found.
Changes in appetite, food preferences, and mealtime routines—such as cravings, fussiness, aversions, and schedule shifts—were common disruptions in eating behaviors among the entire cohort of Ukrainian school-aged children studied.
Different wartime factors influenced both short-term and medium-term changes in eating behaviors, with food insecurity, displacement, and prolonged separation from close relatives being the most significant determinants, according to the study.
The study also revealed that more than one-third of changes in eating behaviors in Ukrainian children exposed to the war were medium-term, lasting over a month, and associated with altered attitudes towards food.
The disruption of food supply in Ukraine has resulted in unstructured eating habits, forced dieting, and limited food access, while the lack of familiar foods for children adds to the stress of war. These challenges have led to significant food shortages, required dietary adjustments, and changes in typical eating patterns, particularly for school-aged children.
The findings also revealed a higher risk for six or more frequent eating disruptions among children from families with below-average income.
Prolonged disruptions in eating behaviors can lead to poor dietary habits and altered food patterns, increasing the risk of eating disorders. These changes may persist into adulthood, contributing to obesity and diabetes, as per the study.
"These findings contribute to our understanding of the situation and can aid in the development of potential interventions for promoting healthy eating behaviors among children and adolescents in extremely stressful environments," the authors wrote.
The study was conducted as a cross-sectional online survey among parents of 5- to 17-year-old children, who had experienced the war in Ukraine in February–May 2023. Parents of a a total of 4,854 children participated in the survey.
Floating Glass Factory
UkraineInvest, the state investment promotion agency, said in a social media post that it is providing legal, advisory and analytical support to the construction of NovaSklo, the largest float glass manufacturing plant in Ukraine.
The investment will total about €240 million and create 340 new jobs, the agency said. The cooperation agreement was signed with Ihor Liski, founder of EFI Group, which is the main investor in the project.
Ukrainian Economy Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko posted that
DREAM Business Intelligence Update
Viktor Nestulia, head of the project office for DREAM, the state portal meant to organize the reconstruction of Ukraine, posted about a DREAM business intelligence module update that lets users save data selections they use regularly for analysis, in English and Ukrainian, at https://bi.dream.gov.ua/#/.
He reminded readers new to DREAM analytics that an interactive tour is available that will teach users the basics of using the business intelligence module, which he said "will become a worldwide benchmark for analytics in public investment management."
AmCham's Top Priorities for Ukraine's Recovery
The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine outlined its top 10 priorities for Ukraine's post-war economic recovery in a social meda post, written after AmCham Ukraine Vice President Tetyana Prokopchuk met with Denys Maslov, head of Ukraine's Parliamentary Committee on Legal Policy.
The priorities include rule of law, real and effective judicial reform, fair justice and transparent selection of judges at all levels, Specifically, the chamber wants enforcement of court decisions, development of an e-justice system, implementation of provisions of the new "On Lobbying" law, and more.
EC Ukraine Team Visits Lviv
EBA Lviv, the Western Ukrainian office of the European Business Association, which represents European companies operating in Ukraine, recapped a meeting it held with a European Commission delegation working on Ukraine's reconstruction issues.
The delegation stressed that, among other things, "legislative harmonization is one of the key factors for attracting new investors. European partners emphasized the need to adapt Ukrainian regulatory norms to EU standards, allowing businesses to operate in a predictable environment and gain access to international financing."
Attack Hits Naftogaz in Poltava
Naftogaz of Ukraine, the state oil and gas company, said in a social media post that it has suffered a "large-scale" Russian attack on its infrastructure in the eastern Ukrainian region of Poltava.
No casualties were reported. "Naftogaz Group is implementing measures to stabilize gas supplies in Poltava region," the group said.
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
