Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Metinvest confirms production halt at Pokrovsk, says it's working to ensure coal, coke supply to steel sites
- Ukraine debt chief warns bondholders against 'Trump trades'
- Russia launches mass missile attack on Ukraine, inflicting critical infrastructure damage
Here's What They Think:
- CEPA: Premature ceasefire poses reputational risk for US, allies
- The Parliament: Europe must boost defense amid Ukraine war and US reliance
- The Conversation: Ukraine has little incentive to negotiate end of war
Sober Second Thought:
- Local ownership and accountability are key in building Ukraine Development Bank, CEPR says
Metinvest confirms production halt at Pokrovsk, says it's working to ensure coal, coke supply to steel sites
Metinvest, Ukraine's largest steelmaker, confirmed it has suspended operations at its Pokrovsk coal mine in the southeast of Ukraine amid shifting frontlines, power outages, and worsening security conditions.
"The full impact of this suspension on the Group is currently being assessed. The asset's facilities remain inside Ukrainian-controlled territory," Metinvest stated.
Metinvest has activated an emergency plan to secure essential raw materials, including coal and coke, for steel production at its metallurgical assets, Kamet Steel and the Zaporizhstal joint venture, the company said in a press release on Tuesday.
The plan involves increasing coking coal supplies from the group's United Coal Company in the US, utilizing existing coal reserves, and arranging additional raw material deliveries from third-party suppliers, as per the statement.
Metinvest noted it has coordinated the evacuation of Pokrovsk employees and their families and is offering paid retraining programs and employment opportunities at its facilities in Zaporizhzhia, Kamianske, and Kryvyi Rih, for those not involved in the suspension process.
"Pokrovske Coal is the energy heart of Ukrainian metallurgy, providing a significant share of export revenues to Ukraine's budget. However, faced with a deteriorating security situation, we cannot risk the lives of thousands of employees and their families," said Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov.
"We believe in Ukraine’s victory, in the strength of our armed forces, and we are prepared to resume operations at Pokrovske Coal and rebuild Pokrovsk after the russian invasion is repelled," Ryzhenkov added.
The production halt at Pokrovsk was first reported by Reuters on Monday.
Ukraine debt chief warns bondholders against 'Trump trades'
Ukraine's governmental commissioner for Public Debt Management, Yuriy Butsa, warned investors against betting on a swift resolution to the conflict with Russia tied to Donald Trump's upcoming return to the White House, Bloomberg reported.
"If you look at our yield curve, people expect some quick, positive outcomes," Butsa told Bloomberg at the Invisso CEE Forum in Vienna on Tuesday. "I think the outcome will be a bit more nuanced," he added.
Ukraine's sovereign dollar bonds jumped 58% last year, driven by investor optimism over Trump's campaign promises to swiftly end the conflict, the article noted.
Butsa, however, questioned whether such market pricing was "very informed or rational," comparing the movements in Ukraine's bond prices to other so-called Trump trades such as a surge in the price of cryptocurrencies.
In August, Ukraine completed a $20-billion debt restructuring, excluding certain liabilities such as GDP-linked warrants. Investor expectations for a ceasefire following Trump's inauguration have fueled optimism for economic growth, driving up warrant prices, as per the report.
Butsa said Ukraine has not yet engaged with a creditor committee on restructuring the GDP warrants but is holding internal discussions with government agencies and official creditors to formulate a plan.
He added that capital controls on repatriating bond coupon payments are likely to be lifted this year while lifting controls on principal payments—amounting to about $500 million—will take longer.
Russian launches mass missile attack on Ukraine, inflicting critical infrastructure damage
Russia launched a mass missile attack on Ukraine on Wednesday, including Kh-101, Kh-22, and Kalibr cruise missiles, the Ukrainian Air Force reported.
The Air Force tracked around 117 enemy air targets, including 77 that were shot down.
"The enemy attacked Ukrainian energy facilities, in particular gas infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions," the Air Force said via Telegram. "Unfortunately, as a result of the Russian attack, there are damage to the facilities."
Energy Minister German Galushchenko said via Facebook that Ukraine's state grid operator was forced to impose emergency blackouts as a preventive measure.
The operator — Ukrenergo — stated via Facebook that the cuts will be introduced in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad regions.
The Russian attack was in retaliation for Ukraine's massive operation on Tuesday, which targeted Russian's military and industrial facilities, the Kyiv Independent reported.
CEPA: Premature ceasefire poses reputational risk for US, allies
A premature ceasefire or negotiated settlement rewarding Russian aggression against Ukraine would not only embolden dictators worldwide but also inflict lasting economic, security, and reputational damage on the US and its allies, with far-reaching consequences for global stability, Vitalij Garber, a former Assistant Secretary General of NATO, wrote in an op-ed for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
If Russia's President Vladimir Putin retains control of occupied Ukrainian territories, he will secure popular acclaim in Russia, reinforcing his regime and advancing his imperialistic ambitions under the guise of protecting "traditional Russian lands," Garber argued.
The Parliament: Europe must boost defense amid Ukraine war and US reliance
Europe must urgently strengthen its defense capabilities, with the war in Ukraine underscoring its overreliance on the US and fragmented military-industrial investments, Nikola Minchev, a member of the EU parliament, wrote in an op-ed for The Parliament.
To achieve the goals of the European Defence Industry Programme and respond to the challenges highlighted by Ukraine's resilience, bold funding reforms—such as reallocating unspent pandemic recovery funds, issuing EU defense bonds, and expanding joint procurement—are essential to enhance strategic autonomy and industrial resilience, Minchev wrote.
The Conversation: Ukraine has little incentive to negotiate end of war
Donald Trump's claim to quickly end the war in Ukraine faces significant obstacles, as Russia's ultimate goal remains the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, and Ukraine has little incentive to negotiate under current conditions, David Roger Marples, professor of Russian and East European history at the University of Alberta, wrote in an op-ed for The Conversation.
Despite high casualties and waning Western support, Ukraine continues to resist, while Russia seeks any opportunity to solidify its territorial gains and ease sanctions without altering its imperial ambitions, Marples wrote.
Local ownership and accountability are key in building Ukraine Development Bank, CEPR says
Establishing a Ukrainian Development Bank (UDB) is essential to Ukraine's post-war recovery and integration into the European Union, according to an article by European NGO CEPR.
The article addresses how to establish UDB by tapping lessons learned from European development bank, including Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BgK), Banque Publique d'Investissement (Bpifrance), Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), and European Investment Bank (EIB).
The authors relied on Ukraine's recent reforms to investigate the nation's immediate and long-term economic needs. They proposed applying a stepwise approach using existing financial structures.
Historically, European national development banks performed five primary functions: foreign aid channeling, long-term loans to financial institutions, direct financing for municipalities and businesses, risky loan guarantees, and export credit support. The authors recommended that a UDB focus on strategic investments like local infrastructure, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and high-tech industries.
BlackRock and JPMorgan have proposed the Ukraine Reconstruction Bank, an alternative model that would function as a development fund modeled after venture capital firms. Despite its usefulness, this approach is less ambitious than European national development banks, and could have limited potential in modernizing Ukraine's financial system or generate spillover effects, according to CEPR.
UDB could be established by building on existing financial structures — such as Ukreximbank and Business Development Fund — rather than building something from scratch. These financial entities have demonstrated resilience and reform potential during wartime and could be integrated into the UDB's framework.
The authors emphasized the importance of balancing ownership with robust governance to mitigate corruption risks. They recommend a "sandwich model" of oversight, where civil society monitors reforms domestically, while international stakeholders enforce compliance through conditionality.
Recommendations for a UDB included collaboration with multilateral institutions like the European Investment Bank (EIB) an the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). External actors, such as EU, could participate as minority stakeholders to enhance governance while maintaining Ukraine's ownership of UDB.
UDB's establishments and success depend on integrating local ownership with strong accountability mechanisms. The authors find UDB to be a strategic tool for driving Ukraine's post-war recovery, foster economic modernization, and advance EU integration goals.
The UNDP Ukraine posted on LinkedIn about parliament's passage of a law establishing a foundation for the reconstruction of Ukraine's energy system. The key elements, also outlined in an infographic, include development of a distributed system, new generation capacity and more transparency.
The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine offered details in a social media post of the 12th meeting of the Jan 14 Steering Committee of the Ukraine Donor Platform, which "ensuring Ukraine's macro-financial stability in 2025, recovery and energy, as well as the state of reform implementation."
Natalya Yemchenko, chief corporate affairs officer at SCM Holdings, announced on social media Metinvest's decision to temporarily suspend operations at the Pokrovske Coal Group due to the approach of Russian forces.
The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine posted details of a meeting between its Tax Committee and MP Danylo Hetmantsev, Head of the Parliamentary Committee on Financial Issues, Tax and Customs Policy.
They discussed "strategic plans and goals for 2025, recent tax and customs policy updates, the urgent need to intensify the fight against the illicit economy, and guaranteeing a level playing field for all companies, including abolishing the tax benefits for transborder e-commerce.
CMS, the global law firm, published an article on the obligations in the private sector in Ukraine to maintain "protective shelters and structures for employees and company infrastructure.
The KSE Institute promoted its latest Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook, and its main assumption that "the full-scale war will end by late 2025 due to Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts and supported by international partners, followed by either a low-intensity conflict or full cessation of hostilities."
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