Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Trump extends vow to end Ukraine war from '24 hours' to several months, European sources tell FT
- EU disburses €3 billion to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets
- Slovakia considers suspending aid to Ukraine over gas transit halt
- EIB to allocate €100 million for Ukraine Recovery Programme via DREAM platform
- EIB provides €4.7 million for reclamation of landfill in Lviv, Ukraine
- US announces additional $500 million in weapons and equipment for defense of Ukraine
Here's What They Think:
- Chatham House: US, Ukraine need to agree on security guarantees before talks with Russia
Sober Second Thought:
- Energy crisis worsens challenges for Ukraine's farmers amid war, study finds
Trump extends vow to end Ukraine war from '24 hours' to several months, European sources tell FT
US President-elect Donald Trump has extended his vow to end the war in Ukraine in "24 hours" to several months, and will likely continue supporting Ukraine after inauguration on Jan 20, two unnamed European officials said.
"The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach," one official said.
The incoming administration is also wary of comparisons with Joe Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan, a scenario the Trump campaign does not want to repeat in Ukraine, the official added, according to a report by the Financial Times.
Earlier this month, Trump suggested that the end to the war could take "six months," representing a more realistic target. During an interview with Fox News, Keith Kellog — Trump's appointee as special envoy for the war in Ukraine — stated on Wednesday that the goal is to end the conflict within "100 days."
"I would like to set a goal on a personal and professional level — I would set it at 100 days and move all the way back," Kellog said, adding: "And figure a way we can do this in the near term, to make sure the solution is solid and it’s sustainable and that this war ends so that we stop the carnage."
European leaders and officials have been advising Trump and his team to continue military aid to Ukraine to allow Kyiv to be in a stronger position during peace talks with Moscow.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sought to stress the importance of "peace through strength" in Ukraine to avoid defeat and emboldening Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
"We cannot have a situation where we have [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un and the Russian leader and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and Iran high-fiving because we came to a deal which is not good for Ukraine, because long-term that will be a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the US," Rutte told the Financial Times in December.
In December, Trump called for an "immediate" ceasefire in Ukraine and the launch of peace negotiations.
"Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!"
EU disburses €3 billion to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets
The European Union has disbursed €3 billion to Ukraine's state budget as part of EU's contribution under the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) initiative.
The ERA initiative — which envisages the allocation of $50 billion to be allocated to Ukraine — will be backed by future revenues from Russian frozen assets.
The fund is EU's first tranche under the initiative, said Ukraine's Ministry of Finance in a press release, adding that EU's total commitment under ERA will reach € 18.1 billion. The EU will disburse the funds in installments until the end of 2025.
The EU has around €210 billion of frozen assets owned by Russia's central bank, constituting the majority of the bank's assets worldwide. The annual income of these assets is currently estimated at € 2.5 billion-3 billion.
The funds will allow Ukraine to finance priority expenditures in the State Budget, including social and military expenses, supporting macroeconomic stability, and restoring critical infrastructure, said Ukraine's Minister of Finance Sergii Marchenko via LinkedIn.
"The aggressor must be held accountable for the devastation it has caused," Marchenko. "This support is both timely and essential, helping to maintain Ukraine's financial stability, strengthen our capacity to counter the enemy on the battlefield and ensure the social security of Ukrainians."
In October, the EU initially pledged up to €35 billion under ERA, before adjusting it to €18.1 billion in December, following other G7 partners' announcement of their contributions.
Slovakia considers suspending aid to Ukraine over gas transit halt
Slovakia is considering actions against Ukraine, including suspending aid, if a resolution is not reached regarding the halted Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated on Thursday.
The statement came after Fico's talks with European Union Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen. Fico accused Ukraine of damaging Slovakia by ending the Russia gas transit deal on Jan 1, and not extending the agreement.
Other measures Fico announced include cutting emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, halting humanitarian aid, and using Slovakia's veto right in the EU in issues related to Ukraine, Reuters reported.
Fico told reporters that Slovakia is not looking to raise tensions, but is considering measures if no solution is found. He said halting gas transit would cost Slovakia €500 million in transit fees and €1 billion in higher gas prices.
Slovakia and the European Commission have agreed to set up a working group to evaluate the situation and explore potential assistance the EU could offer.
"The Commission has been ready to follow up and discuss the impacts of the end of the transit agreements with all parties concerned," a spokesperson for European Commission told Politico. "We continue to stay in close contact."
In December, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said via Telegram that Ukraine is "ready to fulfill the obligations that we have assumed within the framework of the Association Agreement with the EU."
However, the gas transit agreement came to an end on Jan 1, and was not extended, escalating the dispute between Slovakia and Ukraine.
At the beginning of the year, Fico stated that the "Russian Federation won't be harmed practically in any way," adding: "Only the United States will benefit from President Zelenskyy's decision through increased gas exports to Europe."
EIB to allocate €100 million for Ukraine Recovery Programme via DREAM platform
The European Investment Bank will use the DREAM platform, the state portal meant to organize the reconstruction of Ukraine, to allocate €100 million to support community recovery and development projects, DREAM said.
Activities under the project include distributed generation facilities, municipal housing, water supply and sanitation, and healthcare.
The funds will be distributed, under the Ukraine Recovery Programme III, to communities as grants from state and local budgets. Project selection and distribution of funds will be implemented using the state DREAM platform, DREAM said in a press release.
"For the first time in the history of Ukraine, a programme is being launched to implement projects to fulfil community strategies, regional development strategies and the State Regional Development Strategy," said Ukraine Deputy Minister of Communities and Territories Development Oleksii Riabikin, according to a government press release.
"This programme is a new level of planning and development, when resources are directed to the implementation of community and regional development strategies," he added.
As of Thursday, 1,260 communities and 23 regional administrations are part of the DREAM system. They get notified automatically about new sources of funding with information regarding which projects they can submit for to receive a grant.
EIB provides €4.7 million for reclamation of landfill in Lviv, Ukraine
The European Investment Bank (EIB) said it has provided a second loan tranche, of €4.7 million, backed by European Union guarantees, to ease the reclamation of the Hrybovychi solid waste landfill in Ukraine's western city of Lviv.
The funding will facilitate Phase II rehabilitation efforts at the Hrybovychi landfill, scheduled to start in early 2025, including installing a drainage layer across the entire landfill and adding a soil layer to stabilize both the landfill and the surrounding disrupted areas, among others.
These efforts build upon Phase I of the Hrybovychi landfill reclamation, funded since 2020 through a €6.04 million loan from the EIB under the Ukraine Municipal Infrastructure Programme (UMIP), the lender said in a press release on Thurssday.
Earlier reclamation activities were co-financed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), while the upcoming rehabilitation will receive joint support from the EIB and the Lviv city budget, as per the statement.
UMIP is a €400 million framework loan aimed at supporting public infrastructure projects in medium and large municipalities, focusing on rehabilitating and modernizing municipal infrastructure.
US announces additional $500 million in weapons and equipment for defense of Ukraine
The administration of Joe Biden announced $500 million assistance package to Ukraine, consisting of weapons and equipment needed for defense against Russia.
The assistance, which is part of security assistance President Biden announced on Sept. 26, will be provided under the drawdowns from Department of Defense stocks.
The package will include missiles for air defense, air-to-ground munitions, support equipment for F-16s, and secure communications equipment, among other things, the US Department of State said in a press release.
Earlier this week, unnamed sources told The Associated Press about a potential weapons aid package for Ukraine that would be Biden's final aid package before leaving office.
The re-election of Donald Trump has sparked concerns regarding the US foreign policy towards Ukraine. CNN argued that Ukraine might need to adapt to a "dramatic reduction" in US support, citing statement by Trump and his running JD Vance during their campaign
Chatham House: US, Ukraine need to agree on security guarantees before talks with Russia
The US and Ukraine must first agree on security guarantees before any negotiations with Russia begin to avoid a ceasefire being just an introduction into a wider war, Orysia Lutsevych, a deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program and head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, wrote in an op-ed.
If incoming US President Donald Trump were to offer weak guarantees and yield to Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands, that would severely undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and likely embolden an autocratic leader, setting the stage for further conflict, Lutsevych wrote.
Energy crisis raises operational costs, disrupts production for Ukraine's farmers, study finds
Ukraine's small- and medium-sized farmers have been heavily impacted by the energy crisis exacerbated by the war with Russia, according to a study by the US-based non-governmental humanitarian organization Mercy Corps.
Sixteen small- and medium-sized farmers from various Ukrainian regions and diverse sectors such as apiculture, dairy farming, poultry production, and grain farming participated in the study through semi-structured interviews.
The study found that the energy crisis has caused operational costs to rise, disrupted production processes, and led to financial losses for farmers.
For instance, farmers relying on generators to irrigate land reported a stark yield disparity: 15 tons per hectare with generators versus 6 tons per hectare without them. The situation has been particularly dire for agro-processing businesses, where unpredictable power outages waste perishable raw materials like milk.
Many farmers have adopted alternative energy sources, such as generators and solid fuel systems, but these come with challenges, including increased costs and fire risks, according to the study.
Renewable energy solutions remain largely out of reach for smaller farms due to high upfront costs and security concerns in conflict zones. Farmers near the front lines face additional hardships, with some being forced to downsize operations to survive, as per the report.
Government programs such as the Affordable Loans 5-7-9% Program have provided some relief by enabling farmers to purchase energy-related equipment. However, issues such as complex loan documentation and limited awareness of support programs persist. Farmers emphasized the need for technical assistance to navigate energy equipment installations and grid connections.
Key recommendations from the study include providing financial aid for high-powered generators, renewable energy installations, and solid fuel production. Donors are also urged to support insurance schemes to cover risks associated with power disruptions and equipment damage.
DREAM - Digital Restoration EcoSystem for Accountable Management, the digital platform serving as a single pipeline for the reconstruction of Ukraine, announced that funds under the European Investment Bank's Ukraine Recovery Programme will be distributed using the platform.
UkraineInvest, the national investment promotion agency, described a meeting it had with AHK Ukraine and other German private sector organizations to promote investments in the "priority sectors" of energy, agri-food, construction materials, healthcare and defence.
GIZ, the German development agency, said in a social media post that a project it's carrying out with the UNDP Ukraine to restore water and sewage infrastructure in Chernihiv, Smila, and Lozova has replaced over 7,000 meters of pipe and prevented a crisis at some 190 enterprises.
Ukrainian Deputy Health Minister Edem Adamov outlined a meeting he held with the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine to discuss issues surrounding the pricing, markups, and labeling of medicines in the his country.
Law firm Redcliffe Partners promoted a new article on the Register of Damage Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, saying that all 45 categories of claims will open up for submission this year, and first payments are expected in 2027.
The Kharkiv School of Architecture announced that it has agreed to collaborate with UN-Habitat Ukraine, the agency working on urban recovery and other issues in Ukraine, to launch a "Building Back Better" workshop this year in Kyiv and at the Venice Architecture Biennale.
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