Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Ukraine's agricultural exports reach pre-war levels
- Ukrainian agribusiness concerned over delay in EU trade talks, sources say
- M&A volume in Ukraine fell 30% to $1.2 billion in 2024, InVenture says
- Credit Agricole Ukraine receives €50 million EBRD risk-sharing facility
- EBRD provides portfolio risk-sharing facility to OTP Bank Ukraine
Here's What They Think:
- Wealth Management: Ukraine's farmland chance for portfolio diversification
- CIGI: Ukraine should bolster digitization to keep democracy afloat
- The Washington Post: Ukraine's survival at stake amid growing global uncertainty
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine faces rising civilian casualties and widespread damage to infrastructure, UN study finds
Ukraine's agricultural exports reach pre-war levels
Ukraine's exports of agricultural products amounted to $24.5 billion in 2024, reaching pre-war levels, the country's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said.
In 2024, Ukraine exported 78.3 million tonnes of agricultural products, the ministry said, adding that exports of agricultural products accounted for 59% of the country's total exports.
The value of Ukraine's agri exports in 2021 amounted to $27.7 billion, the ministry said in a press release on Friday.
Sunflower oil accounted for 21% of all agri exports in 2024, followed by corn, and wheat.
During the first 10 months of 2024, the main importers of Ukrainian wheat were Spain, Indonesia, Egypt, and Vietnam, Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitalii Koval told S&P Global in December.
"We expect a total export of 40.3 million mt of grain for 2024-2025," Koval has said.
Ukraine is normally the world's top producer of sunflower meal, oil, and seed and the world's top exporter of sunflower meal and oil. The country is also among the top 10 producers and exporters of rapeseed, soybeans, corn, and wheat, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Ukrainian agribusiness concerned over delay in EU trade talks, sources say
The European Union and Ukraine have not started negotiating a new framework for agricultural trade, which is planned to come into force in June 2025 when the current temporary trade agreement expires, Euractiv reported, citing unnamed Ukrainian sources.
The current autonomous trade measures (ATMs), introduced in 2022 following the Russian invasion, aim to facilitate Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU by removing tariffs and trade barriers.
ATMs were extended several times, however the European Commission announced that the current extension would be the last, adding that a permanent trade framework for agricultural products would replace the ATMs after the expiry in June 2025.
The delay in talks is causing concerns among Ukrainian business representatives, given the EU's lengthy decision-making process on trade issues, which first requires agreement between the Council and the EU Parliament.
"Negotiations have not started yet," director of the Brussels office of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), Nazar Bobitski, told Euractiv. Kyiv and Brussels do not have to negotiate a complete agreement before June, they only need to establish the basis for further trade liberalization, according to Euractiv.
The Ukrainians are seeking trade benefits similar to those of 2024, which included clauses to protect EU agricultural sectors that are sensitive to an increase in imports from Ukraine, such as poultry, eggs, sugar, corn, and honey.
On the other hand, EU producers of these good have voiced dissatisfaction with the protective measures and want to return to pre-war tariff quotas. Bobitski said this could result in a "shock of €3 billion per year."
Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland are among EU countries that imposed unilateral trade restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products, citing concerns around oversupply and local farmers' dissatisfaction.
During the presentation of the Polish EU Council presidency, which started on Jan 1, Warsaw's Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Siekierski expressed his intention to "significantly limit the EU’s openness to goods from Ukraine because they undermine the stability of European markets."
Trade talks could be more complicated under Poland's EU presidency, Euractiv argued, adding that the current ruling coalition could be reluctant to make trade concessions to Ukraine.
M&A volume in Ukraine fell 30% to $1.2 billion in 2024, InVenture says
The volume of announced and completed M&A transactions in Ukraine fell 30% to $1.2 billion in 2024 from $1.7 billion the previous year, according to InVenture estimates.
The transactions included corporate deals, venture capital investments in tech, privatization of state assets, and sales of collateral property. Due to lack of transparency surrounding transactions, InVenture estimated the actual size of Ukraine M&A market could be $1.5 billion.
The total value of M&A deals dropped by 30% last year compared to 2023, but the number of deals over $500,000 rose by more than 20%, reaching 113 transactions. Foreign investors played a significant role, comprising 45% of the deals by volume and 60% by value.
The IT, tech and telecom sector recorded the highest number of deals, with 41 M&A transactions valued at $496 million. Construction and real estate followed in second place, with 29 deals valued at $202 million. The third largest sector was agriculture with 11 transactions worth $129 million.
The largest deal was a $200 million investment round in Creatio, a developer of a platform for business process automation. The company received funding from Sapphire Ventures, StepStone, Volition Capital, and Horizon Capital. The funding round pushed Creatio's capitalization to $1.2 billion.
French billionaire Xavier Niel's NJJ Holding acquired Ukrainian operator lifecell and fixed internet provider Datagroup-Volia for a total of $120 million, constituting the second largest M&A transaction in Ukraine in 2024.
The third-largest deal was the privatization of 100% of state-owned stake in JSC United Mining and Chemical Company. NEQSOL Holding-controlled LLC Tsemin Ukraine acquired the stake for $96 million.
Key enablers of M&A activity in Ukraine in 2024 included capital withdrawal restrictions prompting businesses to acquire assets abroad or reinvest locally, and enterprises relocations from frontline regions to central and western areas.
InVenture said it expects investment in tech and agricultural sectors will continue to rise in 2025.
In October, KPMG reported that M&A activity in Ukraine remained stable for the first three quarters of 2024, with deal volume declining by just 2.7% year-over-year.
Credit Agricole Ukraine receives €50 million EBRD risk-sharing facility
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on Monday it has signed an agreement to provide a €50 million risk-sharing facility to Credit Agricole Ukraine to boost lending to local companies, including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
With the signing of the risk participation agreement, Credit Agricole Ukraine becomes the fourth partner bank in the EBRD's Unfunded Non-Recourse Risk Sharing Framework in Ukraine, joining Ukrsibbank, BNP Paribas, Raiffeisen Bank, and Piraeus Bank.
As part of the program, the EBRD will share the risk on individual loans exceeding €5 million equivalent issued by Credit Agricole Ukraine to corporations of all sizes, with a total limit of €50 million, the lender said in a press release.
Credit Agricole has signed two portfolio risk-sharing agreements with the EBRD in 2022-2023 allowing it to extend €100 million worth of loans to Ukrainian businesses, according to the statement.
Credit Agricole Ukraine, part of France's Crédit Agricole Group, has been included on the National Bank of Ukraine's list of systemically important banks since 2003.
EBRD provides portfolio risk-sharing facility to OTP Bank Ukraine
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on Monday it is providing an unfunded portfolio risk-sharing facility to OTP Bank Ukraine to unlock €200 million of new funding for Ukraine's private sector.
The EBRD's facility will provide up to 50% coverage of OTP Bank's credit risk on €200 million in newly issued sub-loans to private businesses operating in Ukraine.
This credit enhancement mechanism will let OTP Bank Ukraine finance vital sectors such as agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and transport, helping companies maintain operations and secure access to essential goods, the EBRD said in a press release.
Up to 20% of the risk-shared loans will support long-term investments by private micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises in EU-compliant and green technologies, enhancing their competitiveness in both domestic and international markets.
Upon completion of their investment projects, eligible sub-borrowers will receive investment grants funded by the EU under its EU4Business initiative, along with technical assistance.
The facility will be backed by first-loss risk coverage funded by donors, including the European Union, as part of the Ukraine Investment Framework, according to the statement.
The EBRD noted that this marks the fifth and largest facility provided by the lender to OTP Bank Ukraine, which brings the total financing enabled under similar EBRD guarantees since the onset of Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine to nearly €2 billion.
The EBRD has not disclosed the size of the facility, but it earlier said the facility would amount to €60 million.
Wealth Management: Ukraine's farmland chance for portfolio diversification
Ukrainian farmland represents a chance for wealth managers and institutional investors to diversify their portfolios as the country's agricultural sector continues to perform well despite the war, the Wealth Management columnist Mitzi Perdue wrote in an opinion piece. Perdue pointed out that Ukraine needs foreign investors to drive the country's growth so buying its land should not be considered as taking advantage of a war-torn country.
CIGI: Ukraine should bolster digitization to keep democracy afloat
Ukraine's government should consider expanding the capacity of the state's digital tools to potentially make it possible for the citizens to vote via an app if no conventional elections happen due to the war with Russia, Anna Romandash, a Ukrainian journalist, wrote in an op-ed for the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI). Romandash noted that although Ukrainians face limited options when it comes to practicing democracy since the full-scale invasion, the government has introduced digital tools and apps making it easier for people to access state services and to control the administration.
The Washington Post: Ukraine's survival at stake amid growing global uncertainty
Ukraine is at a critical point in its war with Russia, with increasing territorial losses, rising casualties, and growing international fatigue threatening Kyiv's survival as a sovereign state, according to an op-ed published by the Washington Post.
The shift in US policy under President-elect Donald Trump and the planned reduction in US aid could embolden Russia and shift the conflict toward a negotiated settlement, risking rewarding Moscow territorial expansion.
Ukraine faces rising civilian casualties and widespread damage to infrastructure, UN study finds
Casualties and infrastructure damage in Ukraine continued to rise during the final months of 2024, according to a study conducted by Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).
The report covered the period from September to November 2024, and relied on data gathered by the United National Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. The researchers conducted 72 field visits, 13 visits to detention centers, and 17 inspections of care institutions and shelters.
Researchers verified findings from primary sources through secondary sources, including official records, court filings, and open-source material.
The study recorded 574 civilian deaths and 3,082 injuries during the reporting period, with 98% of casualties caused by explosive weapons in populated areas. Aerial bombs and drone in urban centers are a major contributor to the figures, according to the study.
Moreover, OHCHR documented a high number of casualties among emergency workers, including 6 deaths and 27 injuries. Additionally, three medical workers were killed and 33 injured, while five humanitarian workers and volunteers were killed and five injured. The casualties were reported primarily in areas controlled by Ukrainian government.
Damage to civilian infrastructure included at least 171 educational facilities and 115 medical centers in government-controlled areas, alongside six schools and five medical facilities in occupied territories.
Energy infrastructure also sustained damage in Ukraine as Russian armed forces launched two large-scale attacks in November, each involving approximately 200 munitions, including cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles. The strikes, alongside other attacks earlier in 2024, caused widespread disruptions to electricity, heating, and transportation services.
The attacks on energy infrastructure resulted in power cuts of up to eight hours daily. In eastern Ukraine, some 13,000 inhabitants did not have central heating as of November 5, due to damage to power plants.
The report documented the execution of 68 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) by Russian forces since February 2022.
OHCHR recommended all partied adhere to international humanitarian law (IHL) to prevent harm to civilians and ensure accountability for violations. It called for investigations into alleged abuses.
The UN agency called on international community to advocate for compliance with IHL and sustain humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations, including older persons and displaced persons.
Ukrainian law firm Integrites promoted an article published in legal journal Yurydychna Gazeta advising business owners and top managers on how to interact with law enforcement bodies in Ukraine, including advice on taking proactive measures to mitigate risks.
Karel Burger Dirven, an international adviser to the EBRD and the first ever "Honorary Consul of Ukraine to the Netherlands," promoted an interview by broadcaster Omroep WNL of a Dutch farmer in Ukraine, describing the effects of the war on his business.
American University Kyiv said that it signed a memorandum of understanding with Creditwest Bank, the first Turkish bank in Ukraine, aimed at "developing young talents, education in Ukraine and exchanging best practices within the framework of the AUK Global Corporate Partnership program."
Horizon Capital's Andrii Brodetskyi announced on social media that he has been promoted to the position of "private equity associate" from "investment associate," and his company is now looking to hire a new investment associate.
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