Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- "Although everyone is war-weary, it's important to portray the resilience and positive rebuilding progress that we're witnessing in Ukraine. Agility, consistency and passion are key. " – Kate Le Moignic, Director of International Relations at Neo-Eco Ukraine
Just The Facts:
- US and Russia to set up teams to work on ending Ukraine war
- EU nations and Canada to meet in France in second summit on Ukraine war, sources say
- Turkish companies to intensify involvement in Ukraine's reconstruction
- Ikea to re-open store in Kyiv this year, mall director says
Here's What They Think:
- The Conversation: US-Russia talks on Ukraine are not the first time that those affected by conflicts are excluded from peace dealings
- Clingendael: Seizing Ukraine's mineral resources risks fueling further instability
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine's reconstruction will not begin at full capacity if peace deal favoring Russia is reached, Danske Bank says
"The Ukraine war story is very much one of peaks and troughs, which can be both emotionally draining and fulfilling.
Although everyone is war-weary, it's important to portray the resilience and positive rebuilding progress that we're witnessing in Ukraine. Agility, consistency and passion are key. "
-- Kate Le Moignic, Director of International Relations at Neo-Eco Ukraine
A word from the editor, Adam Brown:
The above quote was from my conversation with Kate this morning. I had asked her for advice I could pass on to communications professionals in companies that are just now considering joining the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Her surprising success at orchestrating a communications campaign in a war zone makes her uniquely qualified.
When speaking to potential investors about PR and communications, I invariably tell them to look at Neo-Eco Ukraine and its campaign - a mix of cool, open, green and sunny that captures the spirit one would hope will dominate the reconstruction.
The company has quickly gained an outsized presence, and has been featured in 100 articles and interviews in Ukrainian national, regional and specialised media outlets, nearly 30 in France and 25 from other countries.
So, what is the key to her PR success?
Well, she spoke of navigating cultural sensitivities - spell it "Kyiv," use "invasion" instead of "conflict" - as well as timing of social media posts, the challenges of planning, the importance of corporate agility, the necessity of local knowledge, and many other factors.
But that's all for another day - we'll cover it in our upcoming advice column from experienced contractors, bankers, lawyers, accountants, government relations experts and others in Ukraine offering advice to newcomers.
For the newsletter of today, Feb 19, 2025, with upset and anger again dominating the headlines, Kate's key piece of advice rings most true:
"Consistent, supportive and positive messaging is key."
That goes as much for people and their daily lives as for companies and business plans.
Cheers,
Adam Brown
We'll be hearing lots more from Kate soon.
And now, on with the headlines ...
US and Russia to set up teams to work on ending Ukraine war
US and Russian officials on Tuesday agreed to appoint high-level teams as soon as possible to start paving the way to end the conflict in Ukraine in a manner that is "enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides," the US State Department said.
The statement came after a meeting the same day between the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia's capital of Riyadh.
The officials met as a follow-up to US President Donald Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb 12, the statement read.
"One phone call followed by one meeting is not sufficient to establish enduring peace. We must take action, and today we took an important step forward," the State Department said.
The parties also discussed other topics, including taking steps to normalize the functioning of the US and Russian diplomatic missions and laying the foundation for future cooperation on shared geopolitical interests and post-war economic opportunities in Ukraine, as per the statement.
In a separate statement, Russia's Foreign Ministry conveyed a message similar to that of the US State Department.
"The dialogue was highly fruitful. We not only listened but also understood each other. I am confident that the American side has gained a clearer understanding of our position, which we reiterated in detail," the ministry said, noting the sides agreed that a "process for Ukrainian settlement" will be initiated soon.
According to a report by Fox News on Tuesday, the US and Russian delegations proposed a framework that includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, and a subsequent peace agreement. They also discussed a potential meeting between Trump and Putin.
Notably, the negotiations in Riyadh were conducted without the participation of Ukrainian and European leaders.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was meeting Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Tuesday, reiterated that Kyiv had not been invited to take part in the talks.
"We want no one to decide anything behind our backs ... No decision can be made without Ukraine on how to end the war in Ukraine," Zelensky said at a joint press conference with Erdogan, adding he has postponed his trip to Saudi Arabia planned for Wednesday.
Trump also commented on Ukraine's absence from the negotiating table on Tuesday. Asked by a reporter whether he had any message for Ukrainians that "might feel betrayed," Trump said: "I'm very disappointed. I hear that, you know, they're upset about not having a seat. Well, they've had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily."
EU nations and Canada to meet in France in second summit on Ukraine war, sources say
France plans to host a second security meeting on Wednesday, with representatives of 10 European nations plus Canada, to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, defense spending and other matters related to the war, Reuters reported, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.
Representatives of Norway, Canada, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Finland, Romania, Sweden and Belgium, plus, France were invoted to the second meeting, broadening the participation. Some participants would join via video, three of the sources said.
At the first meeting, held Monday, representatives from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Denmark and the UK met in Paris but failed to reach an agreement on sending a peacekeeping force to Ukraine to police a possible peace deal.
The meetings come as Russia and the US meet to discuss ending the Ukraine war, without the participation of representatives from Ukraine or the EU.
Meanwhile, EU nations are preparing to give Ukraine a military aid package worth at least €6 billion as it aims to bolster Ukraine's position on the battlefield amid the talks, Politico reported, citing three unnamed EU diplomats.
The package will include 1.5 million artillery shells, air defense systems and other items in one of the largest EU aid packages since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, according to the report.
The new military aid package could be formally announced ahead of a visit by European commissioners to Ukraine scheduled for Feb 24, the newspaper said.
Two of the diplomats who spoke to Politico said the package could increase to €10 billion or more as countries look into their inventories to see what they can send to Ukraine.
Turkish companies to intensify involvement in Ukraine's reconstruction
Turkish companies are ready to take on a more active role in the rebuilding of Ukraine's infrastructure after the war, Ukraine's Economy Ministry and Turkey's Trade Ministry said on Tuesday.
The statements followed a Turkey-Ukraine Business Roundtable Meeting held in Ankara participated by Ukraine's Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Turkey's Trade Minister Ömer Bolat as well as representatives of the Turkish private sector.
"Turkey is ready to become even more actively involved in Ukraine's reconstruction projects and strengthen trade cooperation," Svyrydenko said, pointing out that Turkey was Ukraine's fourth-largest export market and third-largest trading partner globally in 2023.
In 2023, the total trade turnover between the two countries stood at $6.2 billion. "We are striving to reach $10 billion of balanced trade," Svyrydenko stated.
Bolat noted that the Turkish contractors have so far undertaken 329 projects in Ukraine, amounting to approximately $10 billion. "With the expertise of our companies, we will make every effort to contribute to Ukraine's post-war recovery," Bolat stated.
The two ministers also said that the first meeting of the Turkey-Ukraine Reconstruction Task Force will be held in March in Kyiv.
The task force, established in January 2024, identified the restoration of Ukraine's roads, bridges, railways, water transport infrastructure, protection of critical infrastructure, and housing reconstruction as well as aviation as key areas of collaboration. Earlier, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on Ukraine's reconstruction.
Turkish construction companies are particularly active in Ukraine, led by firms such as Onur Group. Out of 1,109 companies that were opened by foreign citizens in Ukraine in 2024, the largest share (18.1%) was opened by Turks, according to company registration data tracked by analytics firm Opendatabot.
Ikea to re-open store in Kyiv this year, mall director says
Ikea will resume commercial operations in Ukraine this year, with the reopening of the store in a Kyiv mall that was closed after the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022, Interfax-Ukraine reported, citing the mall's operations director.
"There is very encouraging information that this will definitely happen this year," Dmytro Lashin, operations director of the Blockbuster Mall which hosted the Kyiv store told the news agency. "Physically, they are already ready."
He said the opening will take place soon if the fighting stops and will take "a little longer" if it continues, adding that wokers are replacing the sign, removing old products and carrying out other actions daily to prepare the store, according to the report.
Ikea opened its first store in Ukraine on the second floor of the Kyiv mall in 2021, just before the full-scale invasion. The previous year, the company had started online service in Ukraine and opened three pick-up points in Kyiv to deliver orders.
The Conversation: US-Russia talks on Ukraine not the first time that those affected by conflicts are excluded from peace dealings
History is full of examples of peace negotiations without the involvement of those who live on territories affected by wars and those rarely ended up well for people affected by the conflicts, Matt Fitzpatrick, professor in International History at Flinders University, wrote in an op-ed, commenting on the talks between the US and Russia to end the war in Ukraine that were held in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine.
Fitzpatrick listed several examples of such negotiations, including German leader Otto von Bismarck-initiated talks with European leaders in the winter of 1884–85 to formalize the division of the African continent among them, and the Yalta Conference between British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, Soviet leader Josef Stalin, and US President Franklin Roosevelt in 1945, during which the post-war reorganization of Europe was discussed, among others.
Clingendael: Seizing Ukraine's mineral resources risks fueling further instability
US President Donald Trump's proposal for Ukraine to give up some of its natural resources, namely critical raw materials (CRM), in exchange for US military aid could lead to further instability, Dutch think tank Clingendael said in a feature report.
Clingendael explained that if wealthy elites or foreign entities control and exploit these resources, partially located in Russian-occupied territory, that could trigger socio-political conflicts, worsening the instability already caused by the war, saying that the EU should support the strengthening of CRM-related value chains within Ukraine for the resources to be beneficial for Ukraine's society.
Ukraine's reconstruction will not begin at full capacity if peace deal favoring Russia is reached, Danske Bank says
Private investors, that could fill the funding gap for Ukraine's reconstruction needs estimated at $486 billion over the next decade, will be particularly cautious about investment in the war-torn country if a peace deal that aligns more with Russian interests is reached, according to a research note published by Danske Bank.
The note analyzes the impact on the European markets of two possible outcomes of the Ukraine peace negotiations, namely the so-called "dirty deal" that would allow the Kremlin to dictate the terms and leave Ukraine with insufficient security guarantees and an "acceptable deal" that is more likely to bring sustainable peace.
Considering the latest developments surrounding the peace talks, including the exclusion of Ukraine and the EU from the negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Danke Bank researchers expect a dirty deal is more likely to happen (50%) than an acceptable deal (30%).
A dirty deal would leave private investors cautious as security risks in the medium term would persist which would mean that the reconstruction of Ukraine would not commence at "full force," the note read.
"We conclude that reconstruction efforts alone will not contribute meaningfully to euro area GDP growth even if they can offer real business opportunities for European and Nordic companies in specific industries such as construction and manufacturing," the authors wrote.
The amount of investment in Ukraine that will ultimately materialize will largely depend on two main factors: the perceived long-term peace and stability in Ukraine, influenced by the terms of the agreement, and the availability of funding, which will also be tied to the terms of the deal.
The more favorable the deal for Ukraine, the more funding is likely to be secured, and the faster the investment process will unfold, according to the paper.
Danske Bank noted that the development banks have launched different programs to fund Ukraine's reconstruction, including the World Bank's private sector arm IFC, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
However, the significant funding gap remains which necessitates the involvement of the private sector players who would be more willing to invest in Ukraine if a less likely acceptable deal is reached, the authors said.
Social Media Posts
Rare Earths Data Is Unclear
Gracelin Baskaran, director for critical minerals security at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, recapped her earlier comments that political talk around the US-Ukraine rare earths relationship amounts to "heavy political posturing" because politicians can't know the real situation of the minerals in Ukraine.
Much of the data on rare earth minerals comes from Soviet-era mapping, the data contains lost of discrepancies, a mine takes 18 years to develop from discovery to production and mining is energy intensive, while Ukraine's grid has been severely damaged, she said.
Mine Clearance Machine Rental?
Dmytro Salimonov, general manager in Ukraine of Swizerland-based mine clearance firm Global Clearance Solutions (GCS), argued that the ability to rent mine-clearing equipment would "revolutionise the efficiency of humanitarian mine clearance efforts."
"Buying mechanised platforms is incredibly expensive — not just for operators but also for the government and businesses that need their land cleared," he said. "That’s why rental is becoming an increasingly viable solution. We were the first foreign humanitarian demining operator in Ukraine to introduce a rental program for specialised equipment."
Post-War Maritime Safety
Dirk Siebels, senior analyst at the Risk Intelligence consultancy, posted about various security scenarios for maritime-based trade once the war in Ukraine is over.
"Could the US lift some sanctions as a sign of goodwill? And what would be the implications when ships are sanctioned by the UK and the European Union but not the US?"
Israeli Business Interests
UkraineInvest, the state investment promotion agency, recapped a meeting between Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky and UkraineInvest Acting Executive Director Oleksandr Melnychenko this week.
The agency noted "significant opportunities for investment in key sectors of the Ukrainian economy (particularly in processing industry, logistics, warehousing, healthcare, electronic communications and mining), which will contribute to its recovery and modernization in the post-war period."
Danish Sustainable Heating Expertise
The Embassy of Denmark in Ukraine said it will host a delegation of Ukrainian municipal decision makers in Denmark on March 25-27 to discuss needs and opportunities in district heating.
The delegation, including "16 key decision makers from ten Ukrainian cities, all committed to rebuilding and modernizing their district heating systems," will address the conversion to renewable energy, Danish expertise in sustainable heating solutions, and other topics.
Norwegian Food in Ukraine
The Norwegian - Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce (NUCC) posted that representatives of Fozzy Group, the owner of the Silpo Ukrainian food retail chain, are in Norway scouting for suppliers to import Norwegian foods.
The Silpo chain, with more than 330 stores, may open Norwegian food sections and they're on a mission to "gather supplier offers, select quality brands at acceptable prices, and analyze collaboration opportunities."
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