Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- Ukraine defense minister accused of abusing power by firing transparency watchdog
- US diplomats seek Ukraine exemption as Rubio freezes nearly all foreign aid, documents show
- Europe seeks US involvement in Ukraine's security guarantees, sources say
- Ukraine mulls selling stakes in Sense Bank and Ukrnafta, economy minister says
- Kyivstar seeks to buy Ukrainian ride-hailing service Uklon
- Ukraine ready to transit Azeri gas to western Europe, Zelensky says
- Czech Republic drafts plan for integrating Ukraine, Moldova into EU internal market, sources say
Here's What They Think:
- Tuomas Malinen: Pause in US foreign aid to Ukraine may be a strategy to push Zelensky to negotiate
- CFR: Supporting Ukraine strategic, solidarity-driven investment for US
- LA Times: Trump finding out that neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready for peace
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine's energy sector must be rebuilt with EU accession in mind, policy brief says
Ukraine defense minister accused of abusing power by firing transparency watchdog
Anastasia Radina, head of the Ukrainian parliament's anti-corruption committee called for the resignation of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov after he fired the head of the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA), Maryna Bezrukova.
Pro-reform lawmakers and anti-corruption activists are accusing Umerov of attempting to undermine the independence of the DPA, which was established in 2022 to increase transparency in defense procurement and combat corruption.
On Jan 24, Umerov said via Facebook that he wouldn't extend Bezrukova's contract as head of the agency, alleging unsatisfactory performance. Umerov also submitted a petition to the Cabinet of Ministers to dismiss the deputy, Dmytro Klimenkov.
The following day, the DPA issued a statement via Facebook highlighting that only the Supervisory Board has the authority to extend or terminate contracts, indicating that Umerov's decision is void and null.
"The DPA Supervisory Board maintains legal authority, despite the Defense Minister's announcement about withdrawing two state representatives who demonstrated independent positions," the DPA said.
Commenting on the dispute, Radina stated that "the decision [by the board to extend Bezrukova's contract] turned out to be so independent that it outraged the defense minister," as quoted by Kyiv Independent. "I believe these actions undermine the defense procurement reform and represent direct interference in procurement processes."
Radina accused Umerov of breaking the law and called for his resignation. "The defense ministry of a country at war must be led by someone for whom legality, transparency, and accountability are not just empty words."
The Anti-Corruption Action Center has filed a complaint with Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau to open an investigation into Umerov on suspicion of power abuse.
Bezrukova was appointed as head of the agency in January 2024 and her contract expires at the end of January 2025. She has previously stated that she intends to continue to perform her duties as head of DPA, according to Kyiv Independent.
US diplomats seek Ukraine exemption as Rubio freezes nearly all foreign aid, documents show
US diplomats have urgently requested an exemption for Ukraine-related programs from the 90-day foreign aid freeze and "stop work" order imposed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, according to documents seen by the Financial Times and unnamed sources who spoke to the publication.
Senior diplomats in the State Department's Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs have urged Rubio to grant a full waiver, exempting the US Agency for International Development (USAID) operations in Ukraine from the "stop work" order, citing national security concerns.
"We do not know at this time whether this request will be approved — in whole or in part — but there are positive signals thus far out of Washington," an email sent to USAID staff in Ukraine on Saturday that was reviewed by the FT read.
According to the email and officials from several partner organizations, USAID in Ukraine has temporarily postponed issuing "stop work" orders while the exemption request is under review.
USAID has also asked staff to assess programs "and find ways for them to more clearly support the secretary of state’s directive to make the US safer, stronger and more prosperous," the FT reported.
By Saturday evening in Kyiv, however, some organizations started receiving "stop work" orders. One such order shared by an organization with the FT ordered "the contractor to immediately stop work under the USAID/Ukraine contract/task order" the organization had been awarded. The order said the contractor "shall not resume work … until notification has been received in writing from the Contracting Officer that this Stop Work Order has been canceled."
On Friday, the US State Department issued the "stop-work" order for all existing foreign assistance and paused new aid, exempting only emergency food programs and military financing for Israel and Egypt, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, and other newswires reported, citing a cable Rubio sent to US embassies worldwide. No other countries were mentioned in the memo.
The development came after US President Donald Trump on Jan 21 signed an executive order suspending foreign development aid from the US for 90 days pending an assessment of consistency with the country's foreign policy.
On Saturday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said the US has not halted military aid to Ukraine but did not clarify whether humanitarian aid had been paused.
"I am focused on military aid; it has not been stopped, thank God," Zelensky said at a press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.
Since the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, the US has provided approximately $69.2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, according to the State Department.
In addition, the US is the largest single donor of humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, providing more than $3.2 billion, including more than $2.2 billion from USAID, since February 2022, according to USAID.
Europe seeks US involvement in Ukraine's security guarantees, sources say
European officials are pushing the new US administration under President Donald Trump to commit to security guarantees for Ukraine amid diplomatic efforts to end the Russian invasion, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.
European allies generally agree with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that US troops' involvement in any future peacekeeping forces in Ukraine would be essential to ensure the credibility of such effort, the sources added.
The allies indicated that the US might support the idea, despite initial hesitation from Trump. However, they noted that it is too early to discuss the details of how future peacekeeping in Ukraine would look like, the sources clarified.
The developments showcase the Europeans' eagerness to influence the new US administration, as Trump plans to start negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump has threatened to increase sanctions on Russia unless Putin agrees to end the war, while Putin has shown no signs of readiness to make concessions, Bloomberg reported.
If Europe sends forces on its own, that could weaken the credibility of the security guarantees and risk fracturing NATO, which would de-facto end the transatlantic cooperation within the alliance, an unnamed senior European government official said.
European allies are concerned about the level of any future US military commitment, given Trump's record of changing policy hastily, according to Bloomberg.
Trump is seeking to partner with China to reach a deal in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump has made it clear that NATO allies "need to step up their defense spending obligations and share of the burden with the largest land war since World War II on their doorstep," US National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said.
An unnamed senior French official expressed skepticism over US involvement in security guarantees, clarifying that Europeans understood that they cannot rely on major US commitments but would have to prepare for Washington participating in certain capabilities, without putting boots on the ground.
"To avoid a resumption of the war, you need strong enough guarantees," said Patrick Turner, NATO's senior official in Ukraine. "NATO membership is a yardstick for what an effective guarantee would look like."
Claudia Major of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs stated her concerns that "European guarantees will have a credibility problem." She added that she estimates any commitment would require around 150,000 military personnel, which is not be doable without US involvement.
"There are only two real guarantees for a country: NATO or nukes," Major said. "Anything short of that is just security support."
Last week, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters in Kyiv that his country is in early stage talks with allies on the possibility of placing peacekeeping troops in Ukraine to act as a security guarantee.
From its side, the Kremlin has rejected the idea of NATO countries sending peacekeepers to Ukraine, saying that it could cause an "uncontrollable escalation."
Ukraine mulls selling stakes in Sense Bank and Ukrnafta, economy minister says
Ukraine's government is ready to sell state-owned Sense Bank as well as to consider divesting its stake in Ukrnafta, the largest oil company in the country, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko told Forbes Ukraine in an interview.
"We are ready to privatize Sense Bank, as well as consider the possibility of selling a stake in Ukrnafta, which is in dire need of modernization," Svyrydenko stated.
Regarding Ukrnafta, the discussion has just begun, the minister told Forbes Ukraine.
The government is also considering the possibility of a concession for the port of Chornomorsk on the northwestern shore of the Black Sea, according to Svyrydenko. "We see interest both in the domestic market and from international investors."
Ukraine's government completed the nationalization of Sense Bank, the country's top commercial previously known as Alfa-Bank Ukraine and owned by Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman, in July 2023.
The takeover was part of Kyiv's broader strategy to diminish Russia's economic influence following Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
In November 2022, Kyiv took state control of five strategic enterprises, including Ukrnafta, previously owned by oligarchs as part of the nation's wartime efforts. Ukrnafta was previously controlled by local oligarch Igor Kolomoisky.
Kyivstar seeks to buy Ukrainian ride-hailing service Uklon
Ukraine's largest telecom company Kyivstar in December sought approval from the country's competition regulator to acquire control of local ride-hailing service Uklon, Forbes Ukraine reported.
"The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has received an application from Kyivstar seeking approval to acquire control over the assets of Uklon Ukraine that facilitate operations in ride-hailing, delivery, and online advertising," the committee told Forbes Ukraine in response to an inquiry.
AMCU is currently reviewing the application, Forbes Ukraine reported on Friday, citing the regulator.
Kyivstar confirmed the information to Forbes Ukraine, saying that one of the key elements of its strategic development is investment in innovative technologies and new services.
The operator wants to go beyond the usual provision of communication services. "With this aim, we are considering similar agreements with other companies," Kyivstar told the publication.
Analysts at Forbes Ukraine found that Uklon's current valuation could range from $40 million to $80 million.
Established in 2010, Uklon is the first service in Ukraine to hail a taxi via a mobile app. Apart from Ukraine, the service is also available in Uzbekistan.
Uklon's Rider app has so far been downloaded by over 19.5 million users. Every month Uklon clients make more than 4 million rides, according to the company's website.
Ukraine ready to transit Azeri gas to western Europe, Zelensky says
Ukraine is ready to transit gas from Azerbaijan to western Europe, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday.
Azerbaijan "has a large export capacity. The export capacity is 25 billion cubic meters," Zelensky said. "We can use our infrastructure if countries in Europe need gas. But not Russian gas."
Speaking at a joint press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Zelensky said he had discussed the potential arrangement with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev during their recent meeting in Davos.
"We will not let the Russians profit," Zelensky said. "But will we let the Azerbaijanis earn? With pleasure. Will we help the Slovaks? With pleasure. This is what we can do quickly. We can sign a contract and quickly set it up when we hear signals from people in Tiraspol, Slovakia, and other countries in Europe."
On Dec 31, Russia's gas transit deal with Ukraine expired and Kyiv was unwilling to extend it, ending gas flows from Siberia to central and eastern Europe after more than 50 years. This led to severe criticism from some EU countries, such as Slovakia and Hungary, which still rely heavily on Russian gas.
When it comes to Moldova, Zelensky, who has said earlier that Ukraine is ready to help address the energy crisis in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria with coal supplies, on Saturday reiterated that proposal.
Ukraine could supply coal to a power plant on the left bank of the Dnister, Zelensky noted.
"This power plant is capable of supplying electricity not only to all of Moldova, but also, to a large extent, to our region. Besides, the issue of coal prices is not at all relevant for solving the situation. We are ready to consider various options: to provide qualified people, if necessary, to establish cooperation," Zelensky said.
Moldova's breakaway of Transnistria has been hit by an energy crisis following the suspension of Russian gas deliveries through Ukraine.
Czech Republic drafts plan for integrating Ukraine, Moldova into EU internal market, sources say
The Czech Republic has prepared a "non-paper" draft plan showcasing the steps needed for gradually integrating Ukraine and Moldova into the European Union internal market, sources say.
The draft plan includes measures in individual sectors, such as energy, agriculture and telecoms. The prepared document aims to expand free trade agreements with Ukraine and Moldova to support the countries in countering Russia's influence.
Czech Minister for European Affairs Martin Dvorak reportedly plans to submit the document to the EU Council at the end of Tuesday, while the country's Foreign Minister Jan Lipawsky will tell his colleagues in Brussels about the initiative on Monday, Euroactiv reported, citing informed sources that shared the document with the outlet.
One proposed measures for the inclusion of Ukrainian and Moldovan companies is the Erasmus program for young entrepreneurs. The paper also recommended providing training to local institutions in investment verification.
"[It is necessary] to promote further integration of the two countries and the EU in terms of the energy market, including the expansion of interconnections with the EU, in order to ensure the security of supply and stability of energy transmission," the energy section of the paper reads.
For the telecoms sector, the document recommended the inclusion of Ukraine and Moldova in EU roaming, which would strengthen cooperation in cybersecurity, and result in gradual unification of data protection standards.
The agricultural sector includes many recommendations, such as the need to "continue to support the liberalization of bilateral trade with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova after the possible expiration of autonomous trade measures in June 2025."
The paper noted that import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the EU are only temporarily suspended, highlighting the need for a long-term solution.
The Czech Republic offers recommendations for other sectors, including transport and quality control of goods, Euroactiv reported.
Earlier this month, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk promised to seek to speed up talks for Ukraine to join the European Union during Poland's six-month term as president of the bloc, which started in January 2025. Ukraine has a total of 35 negotiating chapters to complete, meaning the EU accession process could still take years.
Tuomas Malinen: Pause in US foreign aid to Ukraine may be a strategy to push Zelensky to negotiate
The 90-day US pause on most foreign aid, including for Ukraine, sparks speculation that this may be a strategy to push Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Russia, Tuomas Malinen, an associate professor of economics at the University of Helsinki, wrote in an op-ed.
While a best-case scenario from the move envisions peace negotiations mediated by global powers and a neutral Ukraine, the worst-case scenario involves the collapse of Ukraine's Armed Forces, leading to broader regional instability and potential conflict, according to Malinen.
CFR: Supporting Ukraine strategic, solidarity-driven investment for US
Supporting Ukraine is both a strategic investment and an act of solidarity for the US, vital for securing American and European security and prosperity, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), wrote in an op-ed.
By safeguarding Ukraine's sovereignty and integrating its industries into Western markets, the US can bolster NATO, enhance economic resilience, and maintain its leadership on the global stage. This approach not only curtails Russian and Chinese influence but also ensures access to Ukraine's economic potential, benefiting both the US and its allies, according to Crebo-Rediker.
LA Times: Trump is finding out that neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready for peace
Ending the war in Ukraine is a critical test for the Trump administration, but achieving peace requires navigating the harsh realities of war and the conflicting interests of both sides, ML Cavanaugh, a co-founder of the Modern War Institute, wrote in an op-ed for the Los Angeles Times.
A balanced peace deal must preserve Ukraine's sovereignty while avoiding actions that embolden Russia or push it closer to China, potentially involving creative security guarantees like NATO-aligned troop deployments to ensure stability, Cavanaugh wrote.
Ukraine's energy sector must be rebuilt with EU accession in mind, DiXi Group policy brief says
Ukraine's energy sector faces urgent challenges due to war-related damages, requiring robust international support and alignment with EU standards to ensure resilience and long-term recovery, according to a policy paper published by DiXi Group and the Florence School of Regulation.
Since October 2022, Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have escalated, causing widespread destruction. In 2023, 42 of the 94 high-voltage substations in Ukraine-controlled territories were damaged or destroyed. Despite this, Ukraine restored its power system rapidly, synchronizing with the EU's grid in just 14 hours after major outages in November 2022, according to the paper.
However, with ongoing strikes targeting generation facilities, the energy shortfall remains severe, particularly during the winter of 2024/2025 when available capacity fell short of the required 18 GW, the authors noted.
The policy paper outlines that international support is vital for immediate recovery and modernization efforts. Key recommendations include providing emergency generators, expanding gas storage, and enhancing grid security. Despite these measures, balancing urgent reliance on fossil fuels with long-term decarbonization goals remains a significant challenge for Ukraine.
The study notes that strategic alignment with the EU's decarbonized energy standards is crucial. Ukraine's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), adopted in June 2024, aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 and achieve energy sector climate neutrality by 2050. It also targets a 27% share of renewable energy in total consumption while improving energy efficiency to reduce primary energy consumption to less than 72.224 Mtoe.
The study emphasizes Ukraine's integration into the EU energy market as a key priority. Enhanced collaboration between European manufacturers and Ukrainian operators is urged to meet pressing needs, such as the demand for small-scale combined heat and power units (CHPs). This approach would align Ukraine's reconstruction efforts with EU market frameworks, fostering long-term resilience.
Significant funding gaps persist in addressing the crisis. The EU's Energy Support Fund had accumulated over €768 million by November 2024, but procurement requests already exceeded available funds by 30%, according to the brief. Additionally, reconstruction efforts face bottlenecks due to restricted funding for auxiliary infrastructure, logistical challenges, and the lack of high-liquidity assets like vehicles and fuel.
Institutional reforms are also necessary to address systemic inefficiencies in Ukraine's energy sector. The report highlights issues such as outdated infrastructure, insufficient competition in energy markets, and workforce shortages. Educational partnerships, professional certification systems, and EU-led technical assistance are identified as critical pathways to develop local expertise and capacity.
Ukraine's energy sector recovery is guided by data-driven recommendations. The International Energy Agency proposed ten actions to ensure energy security, including improving physical and cyber protection for infrastructure, decentralizing energy generation, and leveraging energy-saving measures. These steps are essential for Ukraine to withstand ongoing challenges while advancing toward EU membership.
The methodology behind the policy paper involved detailed assessments of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, consultations with stakeholders, and analysis of international best practices. The authors incorporated data from the Ukrainian government, international organizations like the International Energy Agency, and direct field observations to craft their recommendations.
Transparency in Mining
DiXi Group, the Ukrainian think tank, announced a three-hour presentation, online and in Kyiv, set for Feb 5 analyzing the level of transparency in Ukraine's extractive industry and the challenges it faces.
Ukraine as an 'Opportunity'
Perry Boyle, founder of international defense VC and accelerator MITS Capital, posted that his firm sent a letter to the White House and US Congress, suggesting they view Ukraine not as a problem to be solved but an opportunity to be seized.
"Ukraine is a messy democracy of 40 million people," Boyle said. "It feeds hundreds of millions of people and sits on $$$ trillions of critical minerals. It has some of the most cost-competitive manufacturing in the world. Ukraine is incredibly valuable. Once integrated into the EU, Ukraine can become the next Poland or Czechia."
Reconstruction Classes
The Kharkiv School of Architecture celebrated the first week of the "Building Back Better" workshop that has students planning for the reconstruction of Ukraine with the support of Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
"During this time, the first developments, the first ideas and research of students working in four scales appeared: sea, city, neighborhood, and home," the post stated.
3 Lessons from War
Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko summed up last week's Davos summit in a social media post, saying that the events led her to reflect on three main lessons learned from the war.
The first is that "war awakens a vital force for life" and the second is that "the question of survival goes beyond our own lives." The third, she said, is that "anything is possible. Instead of economic stagnation, we are witnessing economic growth."
Favor US Companies, Shun Chinese in Reconstruction
Tyson Barker, who ended his term earlier this month as US deputy special representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery, posted that America's investment in Ukraine's security and economy should yield preferential treatment for US companies in reconstruction contracts and privatizations.
He also said Ukraine should set a "clear red line" on Chinese participation in critical infrastructure acquisition and reconstruction, and that Europe should more to use the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine and defense acquisitions.
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
