Contents
The Reporter's Notepad: World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings kick off, with a senior bank official finally offering some details about a $10 billion fund the board of directors approved earlier this month. URN Daily has the details and more.
Just The Facts: Ukraine is the favorite candidate to join the EU. Yellen confirms US plans to lend $20 billion to Ukraine. The UN says Ukraine's population has dropped by 10 million in a decade. And more.
Here's What They Think: A Ukrainian newspaper argues that the US needs to shift away from the "escalation avoidance" paradigm while a Turkish media outlet expresses concerns about the "practicalities and trade-offs" of Ukraine's "victory plan."
Sober Second Opinion: The Brookings Institution asks whether military aid to Ukraine should focus to defensive systems ahead of possible shifts in diplomacy and the war.
The Rebuilder's Social: The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine says"70% of all iPhones in Ukraine are smuggled." Per Aarsleff offers "modern sewerage repair solutions" for Mykolaiv, and Dentons publishes a guidebook to electronic identification (eID) means and trust services in Ukraine. And more.
Meeting Notes
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund held a seminar late Tuesday on Ukraine's efforts to streamline laws and processes with the European Union, energy sector reforms, coordination among donors and related topics.
Below is one interesting nugget of information gleaned by URN Daily staff from the speakers. Little has been said of the new "financial intermediary fund," which was first revealed two weeks ago in a Reuters story citing unidentified sources. Now we have more details.
More to come.
Newly approved $10 billion World Bank fund meant to support Ukraine during and after the war, official says
A World Bank financial intermediary fund approved by the lender's board of directors earlier this month will serve as a funding mechanism to support Ukraine both during the war and during the reconstruction afterward, said a bank official.
"This is a long-term vehicle which can support Ukraine during the war, but also for post-war recovery," said Roman Kachur, alternate executive director at the World Bank Group. He added that donors including the US, Canada, the UK and Japan have said they will contribute at least $10 billion to the fund.
The fund is designed with "a very robust governance mechanism to manage and report back to donors on how funds are spent, which is critical to the political environment," Kachur said at a seminar on the sidelines of the annual World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington.
The financial intermediary fund was approved two weeks ago by the World Bank's board, with news media reporting at the time that it would help the G7 nations fulfill their pledge to lend at least $50 billion to Ukraine.
The announcement came after European Union member states approved a €35 billion loan to Ukraine as the bloc's contribution to the G7 package.
In June, the G7 leaders agreed to issue the $50 billion loan to Ukraine by the end of the year, to be repaid with future profits from frozen Russian assets.
Poll of EU citizens shows Ukraine is favorite to join among 9 candidate nations
A poll of European Union citizens shows Ukraine is the favorite nation to join the EU among the current crop of nine countries vying for accession.
Some 41% of EU citizens say Ukraine should be allowed to join the union, compared to 35% who say the same of the Western Balkan countries, 34% for Moldova, 32% for Georgia and 23% for Turkey.
However, Ukrainian membership also had the second-greatest share of detractors, with 34% opposed to it joining the EU, compared to 32% opposed to the Western Balkan candidates, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.
About 32% of those polled opposed Georgia's candidacy and 28% were against Moldova's. Turkey led in terms of opposition, with 51% of EU citizens against it joining.
The poll was conducted by Ipsos for the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, the official think tank of the European People’s Party. The poll queried 1,000 people in each EU nation, except for Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus, where the target sample size was 500.
The favorable result for Ukraine comes as EU citizens identify peace and security as the most important issue facing the union in the future. Some 53% of those polled named security as the top concern, followed by 42% who cited the economy, 38% who said climate change and 37% who cited border control.
Among EU citizens, the idea of enlargement itself, though, received mixed reactions. Some 38% said the EU should add more member countries while 31% said it should not and 20% were indifferent.
The nations most in favor of enlargement were Lithuania, at 57%, Romania, at 54%, and Bulgaria and Poland, at 50% each. The highest proportions against enlargement were in Luxembourg, at 48%, France, at 47%, and Austria, at 46%.
Treasury secretary confirms US plan to contribute $20 billion to G7 loan for Ukraine
The US will contribute $20 billion to the $50 billion loan package to Ukraine announced in June by the G7 group of countries, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed on Tuesday, as reported by Reuters.
Yellen, speaking at a press conference at the start of International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings, also said that the US, G7 and the European Union allies have nearly finalized the loan.
"We're very close to finalizing America's portion of this $50 billion loan package," Yellen said when asked about final negotiations over the loan planned to go to Ukraine by the end of the year.
She expressed confidence that the Russian sovereign assets, mostly held in Europe, will remain frozen despite the continued need for EU renewal of the freeze every six months.
In June, the G7 leaders agreed to issue the $50 billion loan to Ukraine by the end of the year, to be repaid with future profits from frozen Russian assets.
On Tuesday, the European Parliament approved a loan of up to €35 billion to Ukraine as the European Union's contribution to the G7 loan.
Ukraine to attract €17 million from EIB to develop urban transport
Ukraine's government on Tuesday approved attracting more than €17 million from the European Investment Bank (EIB) for the development of the country's urban transport.
The funding will be allocated to Ukraine's local communities to finance payments for the renewal of municipal vehicle fleets, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a Cabinet meeting, without providing further details.
In September, EIB said it would lend €50 million to the city of Kyiv to help replace its fleet of aging Russian subway, or metro, coaches with new, energy-efficient Western versions.
Since the start of the Russian invasion in 2022, the EIB has provided more than €2 billion of financing for emergency repairs of Ukraine's infrastructure.
Ukraine's population has declined by 10 million since 2014, UN says
Ukraine's population has dropped by over 10 million since the Russian invasion in 2014, the UN sexual and reproductive health agency, UNFPA, said on Tuesday.
The demographic crisis in Ukraine has been exacerbated by the war, with millions displaced and thousands killed, highlighting the need for human capital development and socioeconomic reform, UNFPA Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia said at a press briefing in Geneva.
Since 2014, the number of Ukrainian refugees has reached 6.7 million. In addition, the birth rate in Ukraine has dropped to just one child per woman, the lowest in Europe, the agency said.
The UNFPA didn't state its calculations for Ukraine's population, but it was generally placed at 40 million in 2021, before the full-scale Russian invasion.
Even before the war escalated, Ukraine already had one of Europe's lowest birth rates, the population was getting older and large numbers of people had left the country, according to UNFPA.
To tackle the issue, Ukraine, with UNFPA support, has developed a national demographic strategy focused on human capital rather than exclusively attempting to raise birth rates, according to the agency.
Building on the experiences of countries like Sweden, the strategy focuses on promoting gender equality, creating family-friendly work environments, and fostering inclusive social and economic policies that support family growth, the statement read.
South Korea mulls supplying weapons to Ukraine amid reports of North Korean involvement in war
South Korea may consider supplying weapons to Ukraine over alleged indications that North Korean soldiers are preparing to assist the Russian invasion, The Associated Press reported, citing a senior official at President Yoon Suk Yeol's office.
"We would consider supplying weapons for defensive purposes as part of the step-by-step scenarios, and if it seems they are going too far, we might also consider offensive use," the presidential official told reporters.
The remarks came after South Korea's National Security Council (NSC) had an emergency meeting on Tuesday to explore responses to North Korea's expanding military ties with Russia.
"Our government called for an immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops, and if the current military collusion between North Korea and Russia continues, we will not sit idle and will respond sternly together with the international community," NCS said in a press release.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service said last week that North Korea had deployed 1,500 special forces troops to Russia.
Earlier last week, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had been briefed on the "actual involvement" of North Korea in his country's war with Russia, without providing further details.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, however, has said that he could not "confirm reports that North Koreans are active now as soldiers engaged in the war effort."
European Parliament approves €35 billion loan to Ukraine as part of G7 package
European Parliament on Tuesday approved a loan of up to €35 billion to Ukraine, to be repaid from the profits generated by Russian frozen assets.
The funding is the European Union's contribution to a larger $50 billion loan package proposed by the G7 group of countries in June.
Parliament voted to approve the loan by 518 in favor and 56 against, according to a press release.
"The final amount that the EU will contribute could be lower, depending on the size of the loans provided by other G7 partners," the statement read.
EU governments already approved the proposal, and the EU Council plans to adopt the regulation by written procedure after Parliament's vote. The regulation will take force the day after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU.
About €210 billion in assets from the Central Bank of Russia are held in the EU and remain frozen under sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
EU governments decided to set aside the profits from these assets, and use them to support both military efforts and reconstruction in Ukraine.
UK to lend £2.26 billion to Ukraine for military spending
The UK will provide a £2.26 billion loan to Ukraine as budgetary support for military spending.
The funding is a contribution to the G7's $50 billion package to support Ukraine's military, budget, and reconstruction needs, the UK government said in a press release, on Tuesday.
The loan will be repaid using profits on frozen Russian sovereign assets.
Ukraine will use the funding to buy key equipment to support its efforts in the war against Russia, including air defense, artillery, and wider equipment support, according to the statement.
The UK has already committed to provide £3 billion a year in military aid for Ukraine. The £2.26 billion comes on top of that commitment.
Companies in Czech city of Brno to launch satellite for defense and reconstruction of Ukraine
The Brno Space Cluster, an organization formed by 22 private aerospace companies in the Czech city of Brno, is developing a satellite equipped with a high-resolution camera to help Ukraine in its defense and reconstruction, reported local media.
The satellite is being built with the support of the City of Brno, the Brno Regional Chamber of Commerce, and the Czech Ministry of Transport, which signed a memorandum with the Ukrainian state space agency, the Brno Daily reported.
The satellite, to launch in 2026, aims to provide data for defense as well as for rebuilding when the war ends, according to Petr Kapoun, the chair of the Brno Space Cluster.
Funding efforts include public crowdfunding to engage community support, with a total mission cost anticipated in the hundreds of millions of Czech koruna (10s of millions of USD), the newspaper reported.
Opinion: Shifting the paradigm in Ukraine
Yale University history professor Marci Shore agues that US President Joe Biden's cautious approach to supporting Ukraine, a policy she calls “escalation avoidance” has become counterproductive.
While Biden is portrayed as empathetic and morally guided, his reluctance to allow Ukraine to target Russian missile launch sites reflects a failure to adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict, she says in an opinion piece published in the Kyiv Independent.
The article draws parallels between Biden’s current indecision and past moments where bold leadership was needed but not exercised, such as the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the US Supreme Court. The author suggests that Biden’s well-meaning yet cautious approach mirrors historical figures who failed to act decisively when the moment demanded it.
The author calls for a "new paradigm" that moves beyond fear of escalation and embraces the demands of the current geopolitical reality. Ultimately, the piece argues that bold, transformative action is necessary to respond to Russia’s ongoing war and to support Ukraine’s self-defense.
Zelensky's victory plan: ambition versus reality in ending the war
Ukraine's "victory plan" seeks NATO membership and more financial support in its fight with Russia even as public opinion shifts toward peace talks, leading to concerns about their practicality and the necessary trade-offs involved, writes Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak in an opinion piece.
The plan's central focus on NATO integration faces skepticism from alliance members hesitant about escalating tensions with Russia. While it garners support from some Eastern European nations, larger players like Germany and France express caution, fearing immediate military obligations that could arise from NATO’s mutual defense commitments, the article states.
The plan also introduces controversial military components, including requests for long-range weapon systems, which Western allies are reluctant to supply due to fears of further escalation. On the economic side, proposals for joint investments in key resources like lithium and uranium raise questions about security and corruption safeguards amid an active conflict.
Public sentiment in Ukraine is evolving, with recent polls indicating a majority favoring diplomatic negotiations over military solutions. This shift underscores the urgency for a balanced approach that incorporates diplomacy to achieve a sustainable resolution and reassesses Zelensky's recent strategies, which may risk prolonging the conflict rather than resolving it.
Brookings Institution: What next on the war in Ukraine?
The US think tank Brookings Institution has run a "backgrounder" piece posing three key policy considerations for Ukraine's future as the war continues.
1 - The first question is whether Ukraine should aim to fully reclaim the territories occupied by Russia since 2014, or pursue an armistice while keeping its territorial claims intact for potential future negotiations. This poses a strategic dilemma about the feasibility of regaining all lost land through military means versus settling for a temporary halt in fighting.
2 - Second, it explores Ukraine's prospects for NATO membership. Given NATO's promise since 2008 that Ukraine would eventually join, the article proposes that Ukraine's membership could be expedited but with a special clause limiting NATO's defense obligations to currently-held Ukrainian territory. This could help Ukraine gain security guarantees while avoiding direct military conflict with Russia over occupied areas.
3 - Lastly, the authors question whether the military and economic assistance from the US, EU, and other allies can continue indefinitely. The recommendation is to shift the focus of future military aid toward defensive systems such as air and missile defenses, drones, and anti-tank missiles, instead of large platforms like tanks and fighter jets, which may be less effective in the current stalemated conflict.
Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, says in a social media post that "70% of all iPhones in Ukraine are smuggled into the country and sold illegally." The statement follows a round table by his organization on shadow markets and solutions.
USAID AGRO Ukraine posts that it carried out a marketing operation this week at the world's largest food innovation exhibition, SIAL Paris, to present "for the first time an updated line of four types of flour produced at a modern plant in Lutsk."
USAID Economic Resilience Activity (ERA) highlights the effects of its delivery of a pilot boat to Ukraine’s Sea Ports Authority, saying it reduced delivery times, supported over 400 pilot missions and facilitated the export of key commodities like grain.
Global law firm Dentons in Ukraine announced that it has published a guidebook to electronic identification (eID) means and trust services in Ukraine, which have "emerged as readily accessible and efficient alternatives to traditional handwriting methods."
Danish engineering firm Per Aarsleff has offered "modern sewerage repair solutions" for the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, using "Cured-in-Place Pipe (CIPP) lining technology for reconstruction, the Embassy of Denmark in Ukraine posted.
Ukrainian investment advisory firm Capital Times announced that it published an M&A market analysis of the agritech sector in Ukraine, saying "the market is developing thanks to grants, particularly from the Ukrainian Startup Fund, but private investments remain scarce."
