Contents
Reporter's Notepad: Meeting Notes published from European Commission Workshops on Foreign Direct Investment, Private Equity and War-Risk Insurance.
Just The Facts: Biden's decision to approve Ukraine's use of US long-range missiles faces pushback from allies. Korean tractor maker TYM targets Ukraine rebuild with Europe subsidiary.
Here's What They Think: Biden risks retaliation by letting strike deep in side Russia with US weapons, the Guardian says. FT, though, says his decision should have come earlier, and The Conversation believes Europe must start taking more responsibility for its own security.
Sober Second Thought: Ukrainian agricultural producers can compensate for the costs of aligning their operations with the EU regulations by increasing their efficiency, Olha Halytsia and Oleg Nivievskyi from the Kyiv School of Economics wrote in a policy brief.
The Rebuilder's Social: It's been 1,000 days, as of today, since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Thousands of social media posters praise Ukraine, recount damages and offer poetic words to commemorate the occasion.
Dear subscribers,
We have published the Meeting Notes from three European Commission workshops on Foreign Direct Investment, Private Equity and War-Risk Insurance, from last week. You can find them under Meeting Notes on the website, for premium subscribers only. Here, for example, is the Meeting Notes text on War-Risk Insurance.
For now, the best use of these files that we can recommend is to search for topics of interest, with a standard Ctrl-F search. You will find the relevant snippet of conversation, but should then double check it with the audio, which is also included in the Meeting Notes.
The process is cumbersome for now, but we will adopt an AI search mechanism when we get a certain volume of Meeting Notes. It's going to get very valuable, very soon.
European leaders must be ready to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, Estonian minister says
European leaders must be ready to deploy military forces to Ukraine to support any peace deal negotiated by US President-elect Donald Trump between Ukraine and Russia, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told the Financial Times.
Tsahkna said NATO membership — as requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — would be the strongest security guarantee for Ukraine. However, if the US opposes Ukraine's inclusion in the alliance, Europe would need to deploy troops to prevent further Russian aggression.
"If we are talking about real security guarantees, it means that there will be a just peace," Tsahkna stated. "Then we are talking about Nato membership … But without the US it is impossible. And then we are talking about any form [of guarantee] in the meaning of boots on the ground."
Tsahkna said that Trump's victory in the US presidential election has accelerated talks among Ukraine's allies on how to strengthen support for Kiev in light of its recent battlefield losses. He added that it would be "really, really, really complicated" for Ukraine's European allies to provide security guarantees without US backing.
Analysts suggest that a European effort to support Ukraine could be led by a coalition of willing nations, including Poland and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which together account for two-thirds of European bilateral military aid to Ukraine. The defence group includes the Nordic and Baltic states, as well as the Netherlands.
Tsahkna emphasized the importance of Germany and France joining efforts to support Ukraine, alongside Britain and Poland, as key European allies in strengthening Ukraine’s security.
Ukraine is now representing NATO's first line of defence, which could reshape Europe's security architecture in the coming months, Tsahkna concluded, noting: "We just cannot wait on whatever the US decides."
Biden's long-range missile decision for Ukraine faces pushback from allies
US President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-made long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory has failed to garner support from Ukraine's other allies, signaling Biden's dwindling influence as he approaches the end of his term, Bloomberg reported.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed reluctance to supply Ukraine with long-range missile systems, specifically German-made Taurus cruise missiles, Deutsche Welle reported. Speaking at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Scholz stated: "I have explained very clearly why I do not think it is right to supply Taurus cruise missiles."
"Many citizens in Germany are worried about security and peace in Europe," Scholz noted, adding that it is important to support Ukraine's defense against Russia, while still acting "prudently."
In Moscow, the Kremlin has warned that Biden's decision adds "fuel to the fire" of the war and could escalate tensions even higher, The Associated Press reported.
"It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps, and they have been talking about this, to continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict," said spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Peskov referenced a statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin in September, in which he said that allowing Ukraine to target Russia would change "the very nature of the conflict dramatically," adding: "This will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia."
Putin has said that the Ukraine military lacks the satellite guidance systems and other technology and expertise required to use the US weapons, so they would have to be used directly by NATO troops, constituting a NATO attack on Russia.
Meanwhile, China has called for de-escalation and political settlement following Biden's decision, Global Times reported, citing Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian.
Korean tractor maker TYM targets Ukraine rebuild with Europe subsidiary
South Korean tractor manufacturer TYM said it aims to participate in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine through its recently established European subsidiary.
Ukrainian parliamentary delegates recently visited TYM's headquarters, discussing active support for tractor manufacturing parts and services via the European unit, TYM said in a press release on Monday.
TYM targets a 10% share of key European markets, using its new European subsidiary as a launchpad to expand its products and brand across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, it said.
TYM Europe, based in the Netherlands, will start operating in February of 2025.
77% of Ukrainians support decentralization, survey finds
77% of Ukrainians support post-war local self-government reform and decentralization in the country to enhance local competencies, resources and accountability, while only 16% view the reform as unnecessary, an opinion poll commissioned by the Council of Europe (CoE) found.
65% of respondents support a partnership model between the state and local authorities for recovery and reconstruction, while 11% favor a centralized approach led solely by the state, and 16% believe full responsibility should rest with local authorities, CoE said in a press release on Monday.
40% of respondents gave a positive assessment of their mayor's performance, 23% viewed it negatively, and 33% were neutral, with the rest unaware or undecided.
Participants were also asked to identify five top priorities for their community in the near future. The highest priority, supported by 40%, was programs for combatants and military personnel, including social care, healthcare, and housing.
Other key priorities included backup and decentralized electricity sources (32%), job creation (27%), shelters for residents (26%), shelters in schools and preschools (23%), inpatient medical care (23%), emergency water supply (23%), primary healthcare (21%), and centralized electrical supply (20%).
The survey, carried out by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology between September and November, collected responses from more than 3,000 participants, according to the press release. It is the eighth such survey since 2015.
The Guardian: Biden's missile decision risks retaliation
US President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use Western-made long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory risks causing a significant surge in retaliatory sabotage, the Observer's foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall wrote in an op-ed for the Guardian.
Having this in mind, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky must now demonstrate how missiles will shift the course of this war, while his European allies must unite in preparation for Donald Trump in the White House, Tisdall argued.
The Conversation: Europe must pursue its interests ahead of Trump-brokered Ukraine peace deal
Ukraine's European allies must prepare for the day after Donald Trump's inauguration as US president, regardless of whether Trump pressures Ukraine into a bad deal, Russia later backs out of a Trump-brokered settlement, or Trump abandons his attempts to end the war, Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham Stefan Wolff wrote in an op-ed for The Conversation.
This means European countries will have to take more responsibility for their own security by increasing military and financial aid to Ukraine, as well as drafting a military strategy to protect Ukraine, which would become a cornerstone of a future European security framework that curbs and effectively deters future Russian aggression, Wolff wrote.
FT: Biden's missile decision should have come sooner, with fewer restrictions
US President Joe Biden's decision to permit Ukraine to use Western-made long-range missiles to hit Russia should have come earlier and without alleged restrictions to Russia's Kursk region only, the Financial Times editorial board wrote in an op-ed.
In addition, the move should be just one part of a broader strategy by the US and its allies to strengthen Ukraine's position on the battlefield ahead of Donald Trump's presidential inauguration, the FT said, noting that European allies should prepare to assume America's role in funding Ukraine's war effort if Trump's dealmaking fails and he withdraws US support for Kyiv.
Ukraine's farmers can compensate for EU agricultural acquis compliance costs with improved efficiency, policy brief says
Ukrainian agricultural producers can compensate for the costs of aligning their operations with the EU regulations by increasing their efficiency, Olha Halytsia and Oleg Nivievskyi from the Kyiv School of Economics wrote in a policy brief.
The potential compliance costs associated with EU accession could impact Ukraine's agricultural competitiveness and supply growth, but agricultural producers have the opportunity to both increase output and reduce harmful environmental impacts, offsetting the added compliance expenses, the pair wrote.
Although evidence on expected compliance costs is limited, estimates suggest they could amount to up to 10% of total costs, according to the report.
In order to be fully efficient, producers of cereals and sunflowers in Ukraine can improve their production results by increasing crop output by 19% while simultaneously contracting undesirable output by 16%, an econometric analysis showed.
To support Ukrainian crop farmers in enhancing both their environmental and economic performance, the authors recommended policy interventions including establishing clear standards for chemical fertilizer quality, encouraging the adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies, and introducing governmental programs focused on energy efficiency in agriculture to reduce farm-related CO2 emissions.
Agriculture directly contributes about 10% of Ukraine's GDP. When combined with related upstream industries and downstream industries, the agri-food sector's share rises to approximately 20% of GDP. In 2023, the sector accounted for 60% of Ukraine's total exports, the authors noted.
1,000 days
As today marks 1,000 days since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, many social media posts focused on the number:
Neo-eco, the French company known for recycling war rubble, says that, in those 1,000 days, Ukrainians "citizens are choosing to rebuild not just stronger, but greener."
Estonian defense company Frankenburg Technologies recounts some of the damage done in the 1,000 days of fighting and calls on Europe to "wake up, unite, and unleash its full potential."
Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, also commemorates the occasion, along with NATO in Ukraine and thousands of others.
In other social media news ...
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on X that "it is great news that Joe Biden has finally given the Ukrainians permission to use ATACMS against Russian bases." He then called for a "$500bn lend-lease style loan" to Ukraine to buy military equipment.
Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko posted that Ukraine has exported $36.3 billion goods so far this year, which is more than the $36.2 billion worth of goods exported in all of 2023.
Maksym Maksymenko, co-head of energy at Ukrainian law firm Avellum, continues his series of explanations of the electricity market participants, this time with a focus on electricity storage operators (ESOs), aggregators, and consumers.
