Table of Contents
- The Reporter's Notepad. Exclusive reporting, observations from interviews and conversations with sources, plus the most comprehensive Meeting Notes you'll likely ever see.
- Just The Facts. All the news fit to read on the reconstruction of Ukraine, verified and originally reported by The RUB staff, unless otherwise attributed.
- Here's What They Think. Summaries of new opinion pieces from influential media outlets, pundits and intellectuals around the world.
- The Sober Second Thought. Reporting on the newest academic and think tank studies related to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
- The Rebuilder's Social. Important, influential or particularly insightful social media posts that illuminate the mood and plans of Ukraine and the rebuilders.
Exclusive
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
Meetings, seminars, webinars, conferences and all other manner of gatherings take place virtually every day on the topic of Ukraine, the war and reconstruction. Ukraine Rebuild Newswire tries to stay on top of as many of them as possible, as they are a source of valuable information, from little gems to major revelations.
Here's one of the little gems. From the talk by Yuriy Butsa, Ukraine's debt chief, to a small group gathered for an AHK Ukraine talk on Wednesday.
Debt chief says low debt costs to leave Ukraine well-placed for reconstruction borrowing; Trump's war statements buoy euro bonds
Ukraine's recent debt restructuring, together with long-term concessional financing from allies, are positioning Ukraine well for post-war borrowing to rebuild the country, Ukraine's budget chief said.
Yuriy Butsa, governmental commissioner for Public Debt Management and the Ministry of Finance, predicted international credit rating agencies will respond "very well" in terms of the country's rating profile when the war ends and low-cost borrowing can begin to finance reconstruction.
"One of the key elements of our debt management strategy in Ukraine is to make sure that the debt cost is as low as practically possible," Butsa said on a video call organized by AHK Ukraine. "The second important element is the average duration of the debt."
"So now we have war in the country with a high deficit, but our blended cost of debt is 4.6% so it's exactly the cost of US debt now for the US Treasury to finance," Butsa said.
As for debt duration, "with raising more long-term money and the extension of the maturities of commercial debt after restructuring, our average maturity of external debt is north of 14 years, and the total state debt average maturity is 12 years," compared to nine years in 2022.
"So one can expect that once the war is over, it will be very well accounted by the international rating agencies in terms of the rating profile of the country," he said.
Bond market sees 'upside if Trump wins' due to possible 'quicker end to the war'
Butsa also said that, in recent weeks, the secondary market trading in Ukrainian euro bonds has given him an unexpected glimpse of how the market views Ukraine-related statements by US presidential candidate Donald Trump and helps him gauge possible reactions to the eventual end of the war.
"Quite funny - some of the bonds are traded on the prospects of US elections, and this week people view it as an upside if Trump wins the elections," he said. "It is surprising to me how the market thinks sometimes, but the market thinks that there is a possibility of a quicker end to the war and a quicker recovery.
"I'm not sure to what extent this is a plausible scenario, but now our bond trading on the secondary market is the proxy of bets on the duration of the war," Butsa said.
This reaction shows that, with the restructuring now in the past and no longer affecting bonds, the secondary market has become a more accurate measure of the foreign investor view of Ukraine's prospects, he said.
"Actually it's a necessary condition, not sufficient, but definitely necessary, for our access to the market when conditions permit," Butsa said. "We clearly see the price of Ukraine risk now on the market, and we can calculate from that the yield curve is somewhere between 12% to 18% now. It's still elevated, but now it is at least liquid and traded, and we can understand the cost of Ukrainian risk on the external markets."
Ukraine's allies donate $70 million for demining at Swiss conference; pledges since 2022 surpass $1 billion
Ukraine's allies pledged almost $70 million for mine clearance in Ukraine at the first day of the Ukraine Mine Action Conference in Lausanne, Switzerland, the government said.
Norway pledged $20 million for humanitarian demining in 2025, bringing its total to $70 million, while Luxembourg committed to $13 million, and the Netherlands raised its contribution by $10.8 million to a total $40 million, Ukrainian Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said in a social media post.
Canada added $24.5 million to its allocation, which now totals $50 million, and the Latvian government contributed €270,000 through The HALO Trust, the world’s largest humanitarian mine clearance organization .
The two-day conference attracted representatives of more than 60 companies and governments, as well as NGOs and academics, and brings the total foreign allocations for demining in Ukraine since the invasion of 2022 to $1.07 billion, the Ukrainian government said.
Since a similar conference in Croatia a year ago, the number of Ukrainian deminers has risen to 4,000 from 3,000 while the number of demining vehicles has jumped to 98 from 32 and the number of demining operator groups involved has increased to 58 from 18, the government said in a separate release.
"Our goal is to clear 80% of the contaminated areas within the next 10 years. Now we need to implement long-term programs and concrete actions," Svyrydenko said in a social media post. "The Lausanne Call to Action will serve as a roadmap for future support."
A World Bank report released early this year estimated the cost of mine clearance in Ukraine at $34 billion, making it one of the costliest aspects of the reconstruction. It's also one of the most urgent, as mined property needs to be cleared before it can be rebuilt.
The US government, which announced $102 million for humanitarian demining in Ukraine in September, pledged at the conference in Switzerland to "assess the needs of Ukrainian demining operators to help them access international support," she said.
The US program involves carrying out a needs assessment of Ukrainian mine clearance operators and teaching them to better attract international support, starting with strengthening relations with international mine clearance operators, the government said in a separate communique.
Host nation Switzerland, which earlier pledged CHF 100 million ($115 million) in demining aid over four years, handed over the first of three GCS-200 heavy demining vehicles to Ukraine for the country's State Emergency Service.
Switzerland, alongside the governments of the UK and Ukraine, also agreed to launch a three-month pilot project to experiment with new technologies in prioritizing mine clearance, Svyrydenko said.
"This project will determine which areas should be demined first to have the greatest positive impact on civilian safety and economic recovery," she said. "The project will be implemented on the platform of tech company Palantir Technologies, which specializes in big data analytics."
Ukraine's M&A activity stable in Jan-Sept with notable decline in transparency, KPMG says
Ukrainian M&A activity in the first nine months of 2024 has remained relatively stable, with deal volume declining by just 2.7% year-over-year to 36 deals in the first nine months of 2024, accounting firm KPMG said.
Despite this slight decrease in volume, total deal value rose by 2.9% in January-September, compared to the same period of 2023, reaching $643 million, KPMG said in a report Thursday. The average transaction value increased significantly to $38 million from $27 million.
However, transparency has declined notably, with only 47% of deal values disclosed in the first nine months of 2024, compared to 62% in the same period in 2023, KPMG noted.
Outbound M&A activity has seen Ukrainian businesses diversify their investments internationally, with outbound transactions comprising 28% of total deal volume. Notable transactions include acquisitions by Intellias and Farmak, both targeting UK firms.
This trend toward international expansion is expected to continue, mirroring earlier developments in 2024. Despite a decline in inbound transactions, foreign investors remain active, with 10 deals announced and a combined disclosed value of $473 million, mostly focused on Ukraine's technology and innovation sectors, according to the report.
In terms of geographical investment, inbound deals in 2024 have shown greater diversity, with contributions from Europe, North America, and the MEA region. Domestic M&A has also contributed significantly, accounting for 18% of total deal value and 44% of deal volume in the first nine months of 2024. However, domestic transparency remains low, with only 25% of domestic transactions disclosing deal values, the lowest since 2013.
While real estate transactions have been notable, particularly in the privatization of state assets, domestic M&A spending continues to focus on traditional industries like agriculture and consumer markets. The ongoing impact of the Land Reform Act is unlocking private investment potential in Ukrainian agriculture, sustaining interest in this vital sector as it adapts to the current economic landscape, KPMG said.
Labor shortage rises to top of Ukrainian business concerns for first time, survey finds
Labor shortage became the biggest challenge for Ukrainian businesses for the first time in September, according to a survey conducted by Kyiv-based think tank Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
The share of businesses that complained about labor shortages due to the draft and/or departure of employees slightly decreased in September to 61% from a record 63% in August. However, it has now become the leading concern for businesses, IER said.
"For the first time since we started conducting these surveys in May 2022, labor shortages have become the number one issue limiting business operations in Ukraine," said IER Executive Director Oksana Kuziakiv.
At the same time, finding qualified workers is becoming increasingly difficult – 55.1% of entrepreneurs reported the issue in September, up from 52.6% the previous month, marking a new record. While finding unskilled workers is somewhat easier, it still posed challenges for 39.2% of respondents.
The second biggest challenge for businesses were "unsafe working conditions," with 56% of companies citing it as a concern in September, up 10 percentage points from August.
Among other issues, businesses highlighted interruptions in power, water, and heating supplies, as well as rising prices for raw materials and goods.
The IER also said that the Business Activity Recovery Index (BARI) improved to 0.12 from 0.08 in August, with the indicator rising for all types of businesses — from micro to large enterprises.
The survey included 473 Ukrainian industrial enterprises in 21 of Ukraine's 27 regions.
Hungary's Orban calls for ceasefire and urges French and German leaders to negotiate peace with Russia
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called for a ceasefire in Ukraine and said he will ask German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron to start peace talks with Russia.
Orban made the comments in a Facebook post ahead of the two-day European Council meeting that is gathering national leaders from European Union member states to Brussels this week.
"We need to go to peace strategy instead of war strategy," Orban wrote. "We need a ceasefire and peace negotiations! Today, I will urge the German Chancellor and the French President, on behalf of the whole European Union, to begin negotiations with the Russians as soon as possible, in order to find a way out of this situation."
Japan's Prodrone aims to start drone-based search for land mines in Ukraine in 2025
Japanese industrial drone manufacturer Prodrone is set to launch a new project aimed at detecting land mines in Ukraine, with plans to commercialize the venture by the 2025 fiscal year, Nikkei reported, citing the company.
Nagoya-based Prodrone will collaborate with Padeco, a Tokyo-based development consultancy, to bring the project to market.
These specialized drones can operate at a height of approximately 50 centimeters above ground. Prodrone and Padeco plan to outsource the development of the mine-detecting equipment and the operation of the drones to a Ukrainian company.
Prodrone announced plans for the project in June and is currently working toward receiving grants through the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).
After the company conducts trials with an initial grant of $400,000, which it expects to receive as early as November, UNIDO will weigh granting an additional $6.45 million to fund the project.
Prodrone hopes to begin operations in fiscal 2025, aiming to produce and operate about 1,000 drones in Ukraine.
In May, Prodrone and Padeco were commissioned by the World Bank to conduct a survey for drone inspection of the power grid and other facilities of Ukraine's state-owned power transmission company Ukrenergo.
Norwegian support for Ukraine's energy needs this year total $2.75 billion, Norway government says
Norwegian support for Ukraine's energy needs this year total NOK 3 billion ($2.75 billion) this year, enough to secure the power supply for 1.5 million people and some industry, the Norwegian government said.
Norwegian aid will repair damaged power stations, help fortify other energy-related facilities against Russian attack and help prepare Ukrainian civilians for the winter, with cold weather gear and supplies such as sealing strips for windows to help insulate homes, the government said in a communique.
World Bank affirms Ukraine's 2024 GDP growth forecast at 3.2%, cuts projection for 2025
The World Bank said it expects Ukraine's economy to grow by 3.2% in 2024, affirming the projection it made in June.
Ukraine's GDP is forecast to grow by 2% in 2025, and by 7% in 2026, compared to a June estimate of 6.5% growth in 2025, and 5.1% growth in 2026, the World Bank said in its Europe and Central Asia report published Thursday.
"The 2025 growth projection for Ukraine is downgraded by 4.5 percentage points, to 2 percent, reflecting the assumption of continued military hostilities," the report said.
In 2023, Ukraine's economy grew by 5.3%.
Switzerland contributes €500,000 to Council of Europe's human rights, democracy action plan for Ukraine
Switzerland has made a voluntary contribution of €500,000 to the Council of Europe's 2023-2026 action plan for Ukraine, according to a press release.
The action plan, called "Resilience, Recovery and Reconstruction," aims to support Ukraine's efforts to align with European standards in human rights, democracy, and the rule of law, especially in the context of the ongoing war with Russia.
The plan also seeks to support Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction as well as to respond to the country's emergency needs.
The overall budget for the four-year cooperation framework is estimated at €50 million. This is the largest-ever budget of a Council of Europe action plan for a country.
Euronews: A path to Ukrainian peace: Beyond exaggerated expectations
Unrealistic expectations have developed that Ukraine could achieve total victory in the war with Russia, including reclaiming Crimea, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies President and former Prime Minister of Slovakia Mikuláš Dzurinda wrote in an op-ed for Euronews.
However, he wrote, the prolonged conflict suggests that a different approach may be needed to end the war and secure peace.
Dzurinda proposes a model for Ukraine similar to post-World War II Germany, where Ukraine would not forcibly reclaim occupied territories but would refuse to relinquish them formally. The West, in turn, would not recognize these areas as Russian. In exchange, Ukraine would receive concrete security guarantees against further Russian aggression.
This model has been endorsed by figures like Czech President Petr Pavel and former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The challenge, according to Dzurinda, is managing the unrealistic expectations of Ukrainian citizens, fueled by Western and Ukrainian political narratives.
Dzurinda also criticizes Zelenskyy for not involving the Ukrainian opposition in the decision-making process regarding the war. He points out instances where opposition figures, such as former President Petro Poroshenko, faced obstacles, like being prevented from leaving the country. Dzurinda suggests that Zelenskyy should organize an internal peace summit in Kyiv with all political factions, focusing on finding a unified strategy for dealing with Russia. This would help create a broader political consensus and offer a united front to the Ukrainian public.
He emphasizes that compromises are necessary to reach peace, but these should not be seen as capitulations or losses of Ukrainian territory. By including the opposition in discussions, Zelenskyy could build a more stable political consensus that aligns with the needs of the Ukrainian people while securing broader and sustainable support. This shift in approach, Dzurinda argues, could pave the way for a negotiated resolution that ensures Ukraine's long-term sovereignty and security.
The Conversation: Why many Poles don't support Ukraine's war effort as much as their leaders in Warsaw
The Polish government has firmly supported Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion. But some Poles, particularly farmers, have begun to express doubts, feeling the economic impact of Ukrainian grain exports, says an op-ed in The Conversation.
Emeritus Director of Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology Chris Hann wrote that, despite Poland's official support, concerns about the war's impact are growing among its citizens.
Many Poles are frustrated by rising energy prices, blaming the shift from cheap Russian gas to more expensive alternatives. Some also believe Poland bears a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine militarily, as other NATO countries provide aid on credit rather than as outright donations. The influx of Ukrainian refugees also pressured Poland's public services, leading to grievances about longer wait times for healthcare and the allocation of financial aid to Ukrainians.
Hann noted that, while Poland's history with Russia influences its support for Ukraine, the relationship between Poland and Ukraine is complicated by past conflicts and territorial disputes. Some Ukrainians point out that parts of present-day Poland were historically Ukrainian territories, and the Polish government's emphasis on protecting Ukraine’s borders may stem from a desire to ensure the security of their own. The memory of the Kresy, Poland's eastern borderlands lost after World War II, still evokes strong emotions, and disputes over historical events, like the ethnic cleansing of Poles by Ukrainian nationalists, continue to strain relations.
Skepticism is also rising in Poland about Western media coverage of the war, Hann wrote. Many Poles question why media outlets like the BBC do not delve deeper into the conditions in Ukraine and the complexities of the conflict. Conversations often focus on the motives of Western leaders, such as former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose advice to President Zelensky in 2022 to continue fighting sparked rumors of Western manipulation. This skepticism highlights a growing divide between Poland's official pro-Ukraine stance and the views of its citizens, who fear the consequences of an ongoing and escalating conflict, according to Hann.
Ukrainian land surveying sector has atrophied and will need support to cope with reconstruction, research paper says
The Ukrainian geodetic business sector, which provides services such as surveying and land measurement, has atrophied during the war and will need government help to underpin the reconstruction of the country without serving as a bottleneck, according to a new paper.
The paper, published by the peer-reviewed open-access Ukrainian academic journal Oblìk ì fìnansi (Accounting & Finance), says demand for geodetic services has been low during the war but will boom when it ends. The paper titled "State Support for Geodetic Business - An Important Prerequisite for Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine."
The paper, written by researchers at the agriculture-focused Uman National University of Horticulture, recommends government support for the sector, focused on tax policies to help geodetic businesses during the reconstruction period.
Exempting large geodetic companies from corporate income tax for a few years could be effective, they said. Other incentives, like investment and innovation benefits, as well as tax breaks for purchasing modern geodetic tools and software, would also help.
The government could support small geodetic businesses by exempting them from paying certain taxes for between five and eight years, removing the requirement to use specific transaction registers, and excusing them from military duties.
The paper also suggests changes to indirect taxes, such as simplifying tax invoicing processes and offering preferential tax credits for buying new tools. The introduction of a special tax regime for value-added tax on geodetic services during the first few years after the war would also help the sector recover.
*Dear readers: Contents of this section change when new studies appear, which isn't every day.
Yevhen Udod, first deputy mayor of Kryvyi Rih, said a delegation from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) visited his city to discuss the construction of a laboratory, together with French company Neo-Eco, to test rubble for re-use.*
*Readers: Ukraine Rebuild Newswire readers were the first to learn about the above plans for the lab, in this story.
Privat Bank, Ukraine's largest bank by assets, announced that it has opened a new factory in western Ukraine to manufacture plastic banking cards for all of the country after vacating the premises in Dnipro due to the war.
Vladyslav Rashkovan, alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund, posted interest rate details and other information on a CAD 400 million loan Ukraine received from Canada, which was credited to the Administrative Account of Ukraine in the IMF.
Edem Adamov, Ukraine's newly appointed deputy minister of health, met with the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine and the European Business Association to discuss "how effectively the state can obtain innovative medicines at affordable prices."
Medical Procurement of Ukraine said that, at the request of the ministry of health, it has bought 25 Siemens MRI machines for distribution to Ukrainian hospitals to improve the quality of free health care.
UkraineInvest, the state investment promotion agency, posted its weekly roundup, recapping a UkraineInvest visit to Poland, a state announcement of aid for industrial parks and more.
