Contents
The Reporter's Notepad: Jamie Dimon warns in clear language of the gravity of the situation in Ukraine, and URN Daily adds the latest World Bank/IMF seminar on Ukraine to Meeting Notes.
Just The Facts: Norway passes $105 million on to UNDP for Ukraine's energy infrastructure, EIB allocates €52 million to roll out 112 emergency call system in Ukraine, DFC lends $40 million to KredoBank, EBRD lends €25 million to Kharkhiv and dronemaker Baykar says it will finish building a factory near Kyiv in about 10 months.
Here's What They Think: Le Monde warns that the presence of North Korean troops in the Ukraine conflict could signal a major global escalation and Newsweek magazine argues that a "land-for-security" agreement to end the war in Ukraine would not work.
Sober Second Opinion: The think tank Migration Policy Institute publishes a paper on the increasing influence and importance of the Ukrainian diaspora - both the recent refugees and families who left Ukraine more than a century ago - which now numbers about 20 million.
The Rebuilder's Social: PrivatBank posts a 11.5% year-on-year increase in nine-month net income, Capital Times announces a second deal this year, and Ukraine's Economy Ministry offers an update on the Ukraine Investment Framework (UIF).
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
We've added the World Bank/IMF seminar titled "How to Stay Resilient During the War" to our Meeting Notes. Speakers included Karlis Smits, the World Bank's program leader for Economic Policy for Eastern Europe Roman Kachur, senior advisor to the World Bank, and more.
The transcript, plus a summary and other details, can be found here. It's not meant to be read straight through - we provide these for searchability and to allow you to hone in on any part of the seminars that may interest you.
Also as part of the Meeting Notes series, we are occasionally transcribing potentially impactful statements from podcasts, television broadcasts and other audio and visual sources.
We thought these very clear comments by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon were worth transcribing.
JPMorgan CEO: 'We can't have a bad outcome' in Ukraine
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon discussed on Thursday the war in Ukraine during an Institute for International Finance (IIF) annual membership meeting in Washington DC. Here's what he said:
(The transcript has been edited for clarity.)
"We have to be quite clear that we can't have a bad outcome there. If you travel around a lot of other nations that border Russia, they're quite worried, and some that don't border Russia are quite worried."
"And we've never had a situation where a man is threatening nuclear blackmail, that if your military starts to win, we're rolling out the nuclear weapons type of thing. If this doesn't scare you, it should. I mean, you're not thinking clearly."
"And then nuclear proliferation, of course, is the biggest risk mankind faces. It's not climate change. It's nuclear proliferation. And again, I think we have to be very careful about what we're trying to accomplish in the next couple of years."
"Nuclear proliferation, if I rank that as a missile or a nuclear bomb … So Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Philippines, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and then folks, it's just a matter of time before these things are going up in major cities around the world."
"And so, I just think we have to just have clarity and subordinate a lot of things to make sure that this ends up right."
And on to the news ...
Norway to provide $105 million to UNDP for rebuilding Ukraine's energy infrastructure
Norway said it has agreed to allocate $105 million to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to support the agency's effort to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The funding will be used for the installation of solar panels to provide renewable backup power for schools and hospitals, while a recent agreement ensures the delivery of an additional 80 MW of capacity to the national power grid this winter, the UNDP said in a statement on Thursday.
"Russia's ongoing attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure has led to a critical need for increased energy production," said Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide. "There is a shortage of this type of equipment in the market. It is therefore an essential agreement with UNDP to support Ukraine this winter," he added.
This contribution from Norway is facilitated under the UNDP's Green Energy Recovery Programme, a $274 million initiative designed to address Ukraine's urgent energy needs during ongoing attacks on its critical energy infrastructure, as per the statement.
Romania to fund second rail line to Black Sea port for $163 million to prepare for Ukraine reconstruction
Romania's government said it will allocate 750 million lei ($163 million) to finance the construction of a second rail connection to the Black Sea port of Constanta, where it aims to create a hub for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
"We continue to invest in developing Constanta port, a strategic objective for Romania," Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said at the start of a Cabinet meeting on the subject on Wednesday. "The target is to transform the port into a Black Sea logistics hub."
Ciolacu said about a year ago that Constanta will be "strategic" for the reconstruction of Ukraine but the smaller port of Giurgiulesti in the Republic of Moldova, which borders both Romania and Ukraine, can also play an important role in the rebuilding.
Last month, Romania's government approved a plan to offer to buy the Giurgiulești International Free Port, the only port in neighboring Moldova, from the current owner, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The port, the only one accessible to seagoing vessels in Moldova, lies at the confluence of the Prut and Danube rivers and near the Black Sea. Shipping volumes through Giurgiulesti doubled after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has said the port has "played a key role in helping to uphold supplies to and from Ukraine."
UK design engineer wins competition for Kharkiv reconstruction project
A UK design engineer from engineering consultancy Cundall, Andrew James Jackson, has won first prize at an international competition organized by the Norman Foster Foundation to make a masterplan for the reconstruction of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
Jackson's proposal, 'Healing Kharkiv: From Rubble to Renewal', reinforces existing residential buildings using locally sourced concrete and materials from destroyed structures, enhancing security and maintaining integrity, the Norman Foster Foundation said in a press release earlier this week.
It includes alternative evacuation routes, new elevators, improved thermal insulation and additional living spaces. Public spaces feature underground shelters and rainwater collection systems while preserving existing green areas.
The competition attracted 259 entries from 53 countries, including 27 entries from Ukraine, the statement read.
In April 2022, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov asked Norman Foster to lead the masterplan for the reconstruction of the city. The Norman Foster Foundation then brought together the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) with design firm Arup, and the group has since been working closely with the Kharkiv City Council and a team of local and international experts on the development of the master plan.
Kharkiv was the first Ukrainian city to start planning its reconstruction, therefore the purpose of the masterplan is to become a 'blueprint' for the reconstruction of other cities in Ukraine, Norman Foster Foundation said.
DFC to provide $40 million loan portfolio guarantee to Ukraine's KredoBank to support small businesses
The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will issue a $40 million loan portfolio guarantee to Ukraine's KredoBank to lend to small businesses in the country, DFC said Thursday in a post on LinkedIn.
"We are delighted to support Ukraine's private sector, especially entrepreneurs and agricultural businesses, through the transaction with KredoBank," said DFC CEO Scott Nathan.
The guarantee will cover up to 80% of the risk of default on loans made by KredoBank to qualified borrowers under the guarantee, allowing the lender to issue $50 million in loans to small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine, Forbes.ua reported, citing KredoBank.
Under the program, at least 25% of all DFC-guaranteed loans must go to enterprises in the agricultural sector, according to the report.
KredoBank is a wholly owned subsidiary of Poland's PKO Bank Polski.
EBRD to lend €25 million to Ukraine's Kharkiv to support municipal services
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it will lend €25 million to the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv to ensure essential municipal services continue functioning amid the war.
The senior loan will be co-financed by a €10 million grant from the US and supported by a partial external guarantee from Spain, EBRD said in a press release on Wednesday.
"Russian shelling and missile attacks have significantly damaged the city’s infrastructure, resulting in civilian casualties, temporary blackouts and disruptions to electricity, heat and water supplies," the institution said.
The funding will provide liquidity for the city's municipal operators — communal enterprises Kharkivsky Metropoliten, Trolleybus Depot No. 2, Saltiv Tram Depot and Kharkiv Heat Networks.
Kharkiv is the second-largest city in Ukraine, with a current population of approximately 1.2 million people, including 140,000 internally displaced people who moved to the city after the war started.
Since February 2022, the EBRD has deployed €5 billion in Ukraine, focusing on supporting energy security, vital infrastructure, food security, trade and the private sector, alongside key policy reforms.
EIB announces full coverage of €300 million export credit guarantee facility for Ukraine
The EIB on Thursday announced that the €300 million pan-European export credit guarantee facility, aimed at reducing financial risks for European businesses exporting to Ukraine with the support of export credit agencies, has been fully subscribed.
"Strong demand by EU companies is resulting in full subscription of the budget available, underscoring the strong demand for this key instrument in revitalizing EU trade with Ukraine," the EIB said in a press release.
Launched in July, the facility is managed by the EIB Group's risk-capital subsidiary, the European Investment Fund, and the European Commission under the InvestEU program.
The announcement was made on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Group annual meeting in Washington DC.
Drone maker Baykar to finish building factory in Ukraine by next August, CEO tells Reuters
Turkish drone maker Baykar will finish building a factory near Kyiv, Ukraine in less than a year, CEO Haluk Bayraktar said.
"We are 80% through with construction and machines are being ordered. Production date will be determined by the course of the war, but the facility will be ready in August 2025," Bayraktar told Reuters on the sidelines of the SAHA defence exhibition in Istanbul.
The factory will make the company's light TB2 drone and its TB3 variant, which is capable of handling heavier payloads, the news agency said. Baykar will keep capacity on TB2 and Akinci production lines flat, and over the next few years invest in expanding TB3 and Kizilelma lines, it said.
Bayraktar also said in the interview that the company will invest $300 million to develop jet engines.
"There are 13,000 piloted fighter jets in the world, and we are betting that over the next four decades all of them will be autonomous," Bayraktar said. "They'll be smaller, employed in riskier missions and easier to manufacture. Their numbers will be an order of magnitude higher than the fighter jets we have today."
EIB announces €52 million package to support rollout of EU's 112 emergency system in Ukraine
The European Investment Bank (EIB) on Thursday announced a €52 million investment to support the launch of the EU 112 emergency number and call system in Ukraine.
The investment consists of a €40 million EIB loan and a €12 million grant from the European Union, the lender said in a press release.
The funding will help Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs implement the nationwide 112 emergency number and call system, unifying ambulance, police, fire brigade, and emergency gas services under a single emergency number and ensuring faster and more coordinated responses to emergencies, according to the release.
The project includes building modern call centers and IT infrastructure to bring Ukraine's emergency services in line with European standards, the statement read.
The announcement was made on the margins of the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Washington DC.
Portugal's trade and investment agency to train UkraineInvest staff to attract foreign investment
The Portuguese Trade and Investment Agency (AICEP) will train officials from the Ukrainian government's investment promotion office, UkraineInvest, so they can in turn teach Ukrainian entrepreneurs how to attract foreign direct investment and support Ukrainian businesses in international trade.
"AICEP's training will help UkraineInvest specialists and businesses acquire the knowledge and tools to attract foreign direct investment and successfully enter the global market, including strengthening e-commerce in international trade, conducting business missions, participating in international exhibitions and enabling Ukrainian companies to participate in international procurement," said Ukraine's Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, following a meeting with AICEP board member Joana Gaspar.
The program will focus primarily on investment in small and medium-sized businesses, Svyrydenko added.
Svyrydenko also said the government wants to expand the presence of Portuguese companies in Ukraine.
"Therefore, during the meeting with AICEP, we handed over a list of priority investment projects. Portuguese investors are particularly interested in renewable energy and digitalization," the minister said.
AICEP is a government agency that promotes domestic investment and the entry of Portuguese businesses into foreign markets. It has offices in Portugal and 50 other countries.
EU4Digital assessment approves Ukraine's DREAM reconstruction database but recommends more security, scalability
The European Union's EU4Digital initiative, which is meant to support digital transformation and the harmonization of digital markets, gave Ukraine's DREAM platform a positive evaluation but recommended several improvements.
DREAM, which stands for Digital Reconstruction Ecosystem for Accountable Management, tracks nearly 7,000 reconstruction projects and involves around 1,300 organizations with the goal of creating a comprehensive database of data related to reconstruction.
"DREAM is a robust platform with a strong security posture and operational capacity," EU4Digital concluded after the assessment. "It effectively supports the reconstruction needs of communities, demonstrating a commitment to delivering high-quality services that are accessible and interoperable."
However, the initiative pointed to measures DREAM could take to refine security protocols, add functionalities and incorporate new technologies for improved scalability and project management.
"As a transparent and secure system, DREAM is expected to play a vital role in the country’s ongoing reconstruction efforts, empowering communities to rebuild effectively and allowing international donors to allocate resources with confidence," EU4Digital said.
War in Ukraine: The North Korean escalation
In an editorial, Le Monde warns that North Korea's apparent military involvement in the Ukraine conflict represents a major escalation with broader implications, particularly for the Indo-Pacific region.
The deployment of North Korean troops points to Moscow’s desperation and waning military capacity, the editorial states, as well as North Korea’s strategic aim to secure valuable compensation from Russia, including potentially dangerous nuclear technology transfers.
"While the belligerents on both sides are receiving help from their allies – the West in the case of Ukraine; Iran, North Korea and indirectly China in the case of Russia – this assistance has so far been limited to equipment," the editorial says.
"The intervention of foreign troops is a line that no country has yet dared to cross: French President Emmanuel Macron's mention, in February, of the possibility of sending military instructors to Ukraine caused intense controversy in Europe but was not followed by action."
The piece also raises concerns about China’s position. As a close ally of both North Korea and Russia, China may be caught in a precarious situation, it says. While Beijing seeks to maintain regional stability and has positioned itself as a peace mediator, North Korea’s actions could contradict China’s diplomatic efforts and create tension within the alliance.
Ukraine NATO Membership for Peace Is a Bad Deal
In an opinion piece in Newsweek magazine, Daniel R. DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, argues that the West is increasingly acknowledging the war in Ukraine will end with a negotiated solution, but some of the proposals are unrealistic.
"One of the ideas making the rounds amounts to a land-for-security trade," the article states. "In exchange for Russia retaining de facto control of the 20 percent of Ukraine it currently occupies, Kyiv would receive a formal invitation to join NATO. A close look at this arrangement reveals a few gaping holes."
The author writes that the Ukrainian government is not likely to agree to such a trade, as President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly refused to countenance the idea of making territorial concessions. Russian President Vladimir Putin would also reject such as deal because he is clear that he will not tolerate Ukraine's acceptance into NATO.
"The pressure for a diplomatic settlement will get more intense the longer the war goes on," DePetris writes. "But not all proposed settlements should be treated as equally valid. A NATO membership-for-peace formula is bound to lengthen the war, not end it."
Migration Policy Institute: The diaspora's mobilization post-invasion has provided crucial support to Ukraine
In a study of the Ukrainian diaspora in the West, researcher Maria Koinova examines their increasing ties with the homeland and the growing sophistication of their networks, which allow quick community mobilization in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"Because many diaspora networks had been built up in the years since the annexation of Crimea, they were able to swiftly mobilize after the full-scale war began," Koinova writes for the Migration Policy Institute.
"Although the money sent by individuals as formal remittances has declined since 2021, support has increased in other ways, such as through social enterprises designed to connect Ukrainian communities with the world and prepare for the post-war recovery. Moreover, the flight of an estimated 6.7 million Ukrainians since the invasion has significantly expanded the diaspora's size and prompted new questions about its future."
The diaspora, thought to number 20 million in total, is also increasingly the focus of the Ukrainian government, Koinova writes. The government appointed diplomat Mariana Betsa as ambassador-at-large for the global Ukrainian community last year in recognition of its growing importance and has proposed changing the constitution to allow multiple citizenships. At the same time, the government began embracing the term "global Ukrainian community."
Serge Hancharevich, managing partner of Ukrainian investment advisory firm Capital Times, posted that the firm completed its second deal this year, with the acquisition by Sirma, a Bulgarian software development group, of 51% of the Romanian IT company Roweb.
Maksym Maksymenko, head of real estate and infrastructure and co-head of energy at law firm Avellum continued a series of social media posts with tips for foreign investors on subsoil use in Ukraine, this time on license auctions - the primary method for securing exploration and extraction rights.
PrivatBank, Ukraine's largest bank by assets, posted its results from the first nine months of the year, including an 11.5% year-on-year increase in net income to UAH 48.35 billion.
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine announced that Ukraine has generated UAH 6.65 billion in direct revenue through 839 online auctions on Prozorro.Sale in the two years since resuming small-scale privatizations, including VAT and debt repayments.
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine also said it has reviewed, along with a European Commission delegation, the progress of the second phase of the Ukraine Investment Framework (UIF) and will select the "most impactful" projects in early November.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association and the IFC - International Finance Corporation announced they are hosting a seminar called "Developing Sustainable Value-Added Grain Processing in Ukraine" to stimulate private investment in the sector.
