Today's Contents
Just The Facts:
- European allies are cautiously optimistic about Trump's policy towards Ukraine, officials say
- Biden, with Trump's support, pushes to seize frozen Russian assets, sources say
- Veon to list Ukraine's Kyivstar on Nasdaq
- Ukraine suspends production at Pokrovsk, its sole supplier of coking coal, as Russian forces advance, sources say
- EU announces €148 million of new humanitarian aid for Ukraine
Here's What They Think:
- Politico: Trump must consider measures for securing lasting peace in Russo-Ukrainian war
- The Baltic Sentinel: Ukraine witnesses potential power shift amid rising popularity for pro-European movements
- E-International Relations: Gas war escalates in Russo-Ukrainian conflict, triggering energy shortages in Europe
Sober Second Thought:
- Multinational corps paid $6.4 billion in profit tax to Russia in 2023, study finds
European allies are cautiously optimistic about Trump's policy towards Ukraine, officials say
Ukraine's European allies are growing becoming cautiously optimistic that US President-elect Donald Trump will not pressure Kyiv into early negotiations with Russia, unnamed European officials said.
The development comes after several rounds of private talks with members in Trump's administration, where European allies advocated for ongoing support for Ukraine, the officials added.
The discussions raised the potential of Trump's administration supporting Ukraine to return to a position of strength before any peace talks take place, the officials told Bloomberg.
The sources said Trump's team was receptive to two arguments; the new US president could risk humiliation similar to President Joe Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan, allowing Russia to achieve victory that would embolden China to consider more aggressive moves.
The talks sparked a sense of cautious relief in Europe, where officials have been considering worst-case scenarios if Trump followed through on his promise to quickly end the war, which could potentially lead to a deal that would undermine Kyiv and strengthen Moscow.
"The only way to force Russia to sit down for talks is to build a difficult situation for them," said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni last week following her meeting with Trump. "Trump has the ability to use both diplomacy and deterrence … and I expect this will happen this time, too."
Meanwhile, UK Foreign Minister David Lammy told BBC Radio that a quick resolution to the war is "now unlikely — and we’re hearing that actually the timetable has moved down somewhat towards Easter," adding that he sees "no evidence that Putin wants to come to the table."
The sources said there is an understanding that any resolution to war needs to include security guarantees. This could lead to spark a debate over whether to deploy US troops if Ukraine is attacked after a ceasefire, a key factor to secure European support, they added.
Unnamed European officials told the Financial Times that Trump has extended his vow to end the war in Ukraine in "24 hours" to several months, citing concerns of comparisons with Joe Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Separately, the German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday to discuss further aid and assess military needs, Reuters reported, citing DPA news agency.
Biden, with Trump's support, pushes to seize frozen Russian assets, sources say
The outgoing Biden administration in the US is making a last push to seize hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets to use as leverage in future negotiations for peace in Ukraine, two unnamed senior administration officials said.
One official said that seizing Russian assets would send a simple message to Moscow: "If you want your money back, you’re going to have to come talk."
The Biden officials consulted on the idea with President-elect Donald Trump's national security team. The incoming Trump administration is generally supportive of the strategy, CNN reported, citing unnamed sources.
However, European governments are less enthusiastic about the proposal and have expressed concerns that outright confiscation of Russian assets by banks could breach international law. With few days left before the transition of power in Washington, European remain doubtful about seizure of frozen Russian assets, sources told CNN.
Senior officials suggested the leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union Freidrich Merz is open to the strategy, but has not taken office yet. Merz is poised to become Germany's chancellor in the upcoming elections.
President Joe Biden was reportedly planning to discuss the issue with Italian leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting in Rome this week, which was cancelled due to the fires in Los Angeles. Biden spoke over the phone with Zelensky last week, but it was not clear if the topic of seizing Russian money came up.
"This money was stolen from us, and the blocking of our assets is absolutely illegal, violating all norms and rules," Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last month.
On Jan 10, the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance announced that the European Union has provided €3 billion to the State Budget under the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine initiative, which is secured by future revenues from Russian frozen assets.
Veon to list Ukraine's Kyivstar on Nasdaq
Telecoms group Veon said on Monday it has signed a letter of intent with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Cohen Circle to combine their businesses, with the aim of indirectly listing Ukraine's leading digital operator Kyivstar on the Nasdaq stock exchange in New York.
Veon will retain a majority stake in the publicly listed entity. Further details about the business combination are expected to be announced following the execution of a definitive agreement, anticipated by the second quarter of 2025.
This transaction's completion would position Kyivstar as the first entirely Ukrainian investment opportunity publicly listed on a US stock exchange, allowing US and international investors to directly participate in Kyivstar's growth and Ukraine's broader economic recovery, Veon said in a press release.
In November, Veon CEO Kaan Terzioglu said the company was exploring an initial public offering (IPO) in the US for Kyivstar.
An unnamed source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Veon opted for listing via the SPAC as it would be simpler than a standard IPO procedure. Veon aims to list Kyivstar by the end of the year, the source added.
Kyivstar operates Ukraine's largest mobile and fixed-line connectivity networks, serving nearly 24 million customers, according to Veon.
Ukraine suspends production at Pokrovsk, its sole supplier of coking coal, as Russian forces advance, sources say
Ukraine has halted production at Pokrovsk coal mine, its sole supplier of coking coal for the country's steel industry, due to the advancing Russian forces, Reuters reported , citing two unnamed industry sources.
"They have all stopped working now," one source said. "There's no production there, they're only working on the surface," the second source stated, adding that an evacuation was underway.
The Pokrovsk mine, in the southeast of Ukraine in the Donetsk region, is owned by Ukraine's largest steelmaker Metinvest.
DeepState, a Ukrainian military analysis blog utilizing open-source intelligence, reported that Russian troops were within 2 kilometers (1.24 miles) of one of the mine shafts, as cited by Reuters.
Ukraine produced approximately 3.5 million tons of coke in 2023, relying solely on coking coal mined in Pokrovsk, according to the national coke association.
The country's steelmakers' union warned last year that the potential closure of the mine could reduce steel production to 2–3 million metric tons in 2025, down from 7.6 million metric tons projected for 2024.
EU announces €148 million of new humanitarian aid for Ukraine
The European Union (EU) on Monday announced it will provide €140 million in fresh humanitarian aid to Ukraine and a further €8 million to Moldova to support Ukrainian refugees who have fled there.
The funding earmarked for Ukraine will be used to provide emergency assistance, including food, shelter, clean water, healthcare, and winter protection.
The primary goal is to support vulnerable populations in the heavily war-affected regions of eastern and southern Ukraine, the European Commission said in a press release.
The funds that will be directed to Moldova will be on supporting Ukrainian refugees and Moldovan host communities, with priority given to cash assistance, access to essential services such as healthcare and education, and psychosocial support.
To date, the European Commission has allocated more than €1.1 billion in humanitarian aid for Ukraine, including today's €148 million, as per the statement.
Of this amount, €1.09 billion has been designated for humanitarian programs within Ukraine, while €84 million has been allocated to support refugees who have fled to neighboring Moldova.
Politico: Trump must consider measures for securing lasting peace in Russo-Ukrainian war
US President-elect Donald Trump faces the challenge of ending Russia's war against Ukraine while ensuring a lasting peace, with options like NATO membership for Kyiv offering a potential path forward, according to an op-ed published by Politico. The author highlighted the importance of countering Russia's influence while maintaining NATO's credibility.
The Baltic Sentinel: Ukraine witnesses potential power shift amid rising popularity for pro-European movements
Ukraine's political landscape is evolving, signaling a potential power shift amid discontent with President Volodymyr Zelensky's Servant of the People and growing popularity of pro-European movements and figures like former armed forces chief Valeri Zalazhnyi, according to an op-ed published by the Baltic Sentinel.
A recent survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reported that 55% of Ukrainians expressed either negative or somewhat negative views of Servant of the People's performance in parliament.
E-International Relations: Gas war escalates in Russo-Ukrainian conflict, triggering energy shortages in Europe
Europe's energy crisis is expected to worsen following Ukraine's decision to halt Russian gas transit through the country, escelating the energy-focused dimension of the Russo-Ukrainian war, according to an 0p-ed published by E-International Relations Kyiv's decision to not extend Russian gas transit deal on Jan 1 has triggered immediate energy shortages in European countries like Slovakia, Moldova and the Czech Republic.
Multinational corps paid $6.4 billion in profit tax to Russia in 2023, study finds
Multinational companies with Russian subsidiaries paid $6.4 billion in profit tax to the Russian state in 2023, up from $6.3 billion the previous year, according to a study conducted by the NGOs B4Ukraine and Squeezing Putin, and the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.
In 2023, 1,600 multinational corporations—nearly three-quarters of those with local Russian subsidiaries at the start of 2022—continued to operate in Russia, indirectly supporting its war in Ukraine. These companies, including some that have since exited, generated over $196.9 billion in revenues through their Russian subsidiaries, with $16.8 billion recorded as profit, according to the study.
Foreign multinationals paid an estimated $21.6 billion in total taxes in 2023, bringing the cumulative tax contributions since the full-scale invasion in 2022 to $41.6 billion. This amount represents just under one-third of Russia's estimated 2025 military budget, underscoring the significant financial role these firms continue to play in the Russian economy.
Companies headquartered in nations supporting Ukraine's defense efforts continue to rank among the largest contributors to Russia's tax base, as per the study. Of the 930 G7 and EU firms operating in Russia, 16 out of the top 20 profit taxpayers come from these countries. In 2023, 827 companies based in EU member states generated $81.4 billion in revenue and paid $3 billion in profit taxes to Russia.
On a country basis, the US firms led in total revenues generated in Russia, making them the Kremlin's largest contributors through profit taxes, with $1.2 billion paid in 2023. Germany followed, with its companies contributing $692.5 million in profit taxes that year. This is especially notable given that the US and Germany, two of Ukraine's largest donors, have collectively pledged over $125 billion in bilateral aid to Ukraine since the invasion.
The Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector remains a cornerstone in sustaining corporate contributions to the Russian budget, the study found. In 2023, this sector—which includes global brands like Mars, Nestlé, and Procter & Gamble—topped Russia's earnings list, followed by the alcohol and tobacco industries (Philip Morris, Japan Tobacco International) and food and beverages (PepsiCo, Mondelez, Coca-Cola HBC).
Together, these consumer-focused sectors generated an impressive $587.52 billion in revenue and paid $1.5 billion in profit taxes, significantly outpacing the finance and automotive sectors.
Corporate tax contributions from companies operating in Russia are set to grow further. Beginning in 2025, changes to the Russian Tax Code will increase the corporate profit tax rate from 20% to 25%, a pivotal move in Moscow's strategy to leverage the presence of Western businesses for additional revenue. At the same time, domestic firms in Russia's military-industrial complex are benefiting from government subsidies, including tax breaks, preferential leasing programs, and other financial incentives, the authors wrote.
ECA Ukraine, the government export credit agency, said in a social media post that it a bank guarantee for the export of services for the first time. The guarantee was provided by Ukreximbank to Ukraine's CH.E-Industry Group, which won a tender for the repair of mining equipment for a Polish state company.
Sergiy Kovalenkov, founder of Ukrainian hemp building materials developer Hempire, said his company was chosen by Urban laboratory metalab.space, an urban development laboratory in Ivano-Frankivsk, to implement a project focused on the use of sustainable materials in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Dentons, the global law firm, published an article in which it looks back at 2024 and key insights gained, including on industrial parks in Ukraine, war risk insurance, critical minerals, eSignatures and more.
Constructions-3D, a company that makes concrete 3D printers, published an article advocating for the use of concrete 3D printing in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Forvis Mazars in Ukraine, the audit and tax specialist, published a roundup of events in the reconstruction of Ukraine, including new financing programs from the EBRD, France’s efforts to bolster energy resilience, the World Bank healthcare project, and the FAO’s latest grants for agriculture
URN Daily: Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank for sale? And US seeks to cancel $4.7 billion of Ukraine's debt
