Contents
Reporter's Notepad: In a coordinated effort in the second half of this year, dozens of banks in Ukraine have approved a combined 10 billion hryvnias ($240 million) in financing for energy solutions - everything from manufacturing of energy-efficient doors by small businesses to large generation projects - to help the country sustain the constant attacks on its grid, a senior banker said.
Just The Facts: Trump leaves Zelensky "somewhat reassured" and Putin somewhat warned in separate talks with both leaders, Swiss private sector involvement in the reconstruction of Kharkiv is set to grow, Ukraine launched a Green Transition Office and the World Bank starts its fourth assessment of damage from the ongoing Russian invasion.
Here's What They Think: Any ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would need to be followed by a negotiated settlement that would require difficult compromises, according to an op-ed in E-International Relations.
Sober Second Thought: Over the past two years, Ukraine has intercepted 79.8 percent of the missiles fired at the country by Russian forces, suggesting it has "effective defense mechanisms in place," according to a study by the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
The Rebuilder's Social: The Ministry of Economy is now analyzing proposals for €2 billion in European Investment Bank guarantees under the Ukraine Investment Framework. UkraineInvest outlines its goals and introduces staff, and Timothy Ash believes that "Trump has all the cards over Putin as he likely goes into peace talks over Ukraine."
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Banks in Ukraine approve $240 million in financing in voluntary accord to rebuild energy grid, senior banker says
Dozens of banks in Ukraine have approved a combined 10 billion hryvnias ($240 million) in financing of energy solutions to help the country sustain the constant attacks on its grid since signing a voluntary accord on energy resilience months ago, a senior banker said.
"The banks, maybe more than 20 or 30 banks, signed a memorandum to try to align our actions toward the financing of energy solutions some months ago," said Laurent Dupuch, CEO and country manager of Ukrsibbank, majority-owned by BNP Paribas.
"Each bank proposed solutions for their customers - it could be financing of production units, financing of storage facilities, it could be financing of energy efficiency," he said. "As of today, we the banking community received more than 2,000 applications for energy projects."
"There is super-close monitoring of this. More than 10 billions (of hryvnias in loans) were already approved," he said.
Dupuch, speaking at a forum on energy resilience organized by the Franco-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the agreement was voluntary but was signed under the "strong leadership" of the National Bank of Ukraine.
He said the banks set aside competition under the agreement in a "unique" spirit of cooperation. "It's not a syndicate. It's not a club and it's not a pool. It's a memorandum on how to work. It's a willingness to develop a financing priority."
In late June, 17 of Ukraine's largest banks signed a memorandum at the Ekonomichna Pravda Banking Forum, reported Ukrainska Pravda at the time, although it's not clear if that's the memorandum Dupuch was referring to.
That memorandum stipulated the banks would offer loans of 5-7 years for projects contributing to the reconstruction of energy infrastructure, with loans ranging €500,000 to €25 million. The client contribution has to be between 10% and 50%.
Signatories of the June memorandum included Raiffeisen Bank, A-Bank, Ukrsibbank, OTP Bank, MTB Bank, Credit Dnipro Bank, Kredobank, PUMB, Sense Bank, Oschadbank, Ukreximbank, Ukrgasbank, Crédit Agricole, Piraeus Bank ICB, Pravex Bank, PrivatBank and Globus Bank.
Ukrainska Pravda reported at the time that eligible projects could include solar, wind, biogas, biomass, gas turbine and gas reciprocating power plants, industrial batteries, and other large undertakings. At the smaller level, entrepreneurs and small businesses could obtain loans to manufacture solar panels, make energy-efficient doors or windows, and other items.
World Bank, UN and EC start new damage assessment of Ukraine war; results expected in early 2025
The World Bank, the European Commission, the United Nations and the Ukrainian government have started updating their assessment of damages caused by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and expect to finish early next year.
"The report will provide a rapid, consistent and transparent cross-sectoral assessment of the damage, losses, recovery and reconstruction needs, as well as the identification of priorities for 2025," the Ukrainian government said in a press release.
The last assessment, published in February of this year, placed Ukraine's recovery cost at $486 billion, marking an increase of about $70 billion from the previous assessment about a year earlier. A similar increase this time would place the figure at about $550 billion.
“It is important for us to assess not only what has been destroyed, but also to update the needs for recovery," said Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction Oleksii Kuleba. "Our priorities are housing, social services, demining, energy, including heat supply and shelters. We pay special attention to the protection of energy facilities."
Deputy Minister for Communities and Territories Development Maryna Denysiuk said investment priorities would be determined in line with the ongoing public investment management reform, which is being sponsored by the World Bank.
As reported last week, the World Bank is allocating $750 million to support Ukraine's efforts to improve its public investment management system at the central level and public financial management and fiscal governance at the local and regional levels.
The fourth report “will assess war-related investment priorities for recovery and reconstruction for 2025 at all levels of government," added Denysiuk.
Zelensky was 'somewhat reassured' after call with Trump, sources say
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was "somewhat reassured" by a recent conversation with US President-Elect Donald Trump, news website Axios reported, citing unnamed sources.
It also reported that during the 25-minute conversation on Wednesday last week, shortly after the election, Trump passed the phone to billionaire Elon Musk, who also chatted with Zelensky, according to the report.
Zelensky saw it as a positive sign that the call happened so soon after the election, and before Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the website reported, citing unnamed sources.
The New York Times also reported on the call, citing unnamed sources that said "it is not clear whether the three men touched on any change in US policy toward Ukraine in the wake of Mr. Trump’s election."
The newspaper cited a separate source briefed on the call as saying it was a “good talk.”
Zelensky had called Trump to congratulate him, and after some talk, Trump handed Musk the phone. Zelensky then thanked him for the communication assistance.
The call took place at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's private club and residence in Florida, and the tone of the call was described as "positive," the New York Times said.
After the call, Zelensky posted on the X social media platform that:
"For us in Ukraine, and all across Europe, it has always been crucial to hear the words of the then 45th President of the United States about 'peace through strength.'
When this principle becomes the policy of the 47th President, both America and the entire world will undoubtedly benefit."
Trump told Putin not to escalate in Ukraine, sources say
US President-elect Donald Trump told Russian President Vladimir Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of the sizeable US military presence in Europe, The Washington Post reported, citing unnamed sources.
Trump made the comments on Thursday in his first phone call with Putin after the US presidential election last week. Trump also expressed interest in discussing “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon,” the newspaper said, citing several sources familiar with the conversation.
As part of his campaign platform, Trump had promised to bring a speedy end to the war in Ukraine, although he didn't say how he would achieve that. The newspaper reported, also citing several unnamed sources, that Trump "has signaled privately that he would support a deal where Russia kept some captured territory, and during the call he briefly raised the issue of land."
The government of Ukraine has been informed of the Putin call and did not object to the conversation taking place, The Washington Post reported, citing two people familiar with the matter.
The call with Putin came the day after Trump spoke with Zelensky in a call that people briefed on the call deemed "positive."
Ukrfinzhytlo in talks with DFC, EBRD, EIB on guarantees for Ukraine's state mortgage loans
Ukraine's state mortgage company Ukrfinzhytlo is in talks with the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and the European Investment Bank (EIB) on potential guarantees for Ukraine's state mortgage loans, Ukrfinzhytlo Chairman Ievgen Metsger said
Metsger told Kyiv Post in an interview that the final decision on the involvement of the international finance institutions will be made over the next year, which may make the guarantees available before the war ends.
The guarantees could be provided within Ukrfinzhytlo's "Bridge Financing" financial product where Ukrfinzhytlo converts the mortgage loans by Ukrainian banks into a financial instrument to attract international financial institutions' guarantees.
The guarantees could reduce the current market interest rate from up to 20% to 10-13% if Western banks enter Ukraine's mortgage market with backing from DFC guarantees, according to the report. This would also increase the volume of new homes available to Ukrainians which would as a result make the housing market more attractive to foreign investors.
Switzerland, Kharkiv sign MoU to engage Swiss private sector in reconstruction efforts
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs of Switzerland (SECO) and Kharkiv Сity Сouncil signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at involving the Swiss private sector in reconstruction efforts in the northeastern Ukrainian city.
Through this partnership, Swiss businesses will assist in the partial repair of damaged civilian buildings in Kharkiv, backed by financial support from SECO, the Swiss government said in a press release on Friday. The Swiss private sector will also contribute by providing training for specialists essential to the reconstruction efforts.
The new cooperation model aims to ensure residents can stay warm in their homes while addressing the shortage of skilled technical personnel in the local job market. If successful, it could expand to other projects throughout Ukraine.
Switzerland plans to allocate CHF 500 million ($571 million) over the next four years to enhance private sector involvement in these efforts. This funding will be drawn from the CHF 1.5 billion designated for Ukraine in the International Cooperation Strategy 2025–2028.
"We are launching this new modality of cooperation with the involvement of Swiss business in Kharkiv, because it is one of the most affected areas, for which this support is important," Ambassador of Switzerland to Ukraine Feliks Baumann said. "With the approach of winter, I hope that these efforts will first and foremost help people staying in the city. I am also thankful to Swiss business community staying in Ukraine and ready to support local people through this cooperation."
Kharkiv's civilian infrastructure has been heavily impacted by ongoing Russian military aggression, with conditions worsening as winter approaches. Last month alone, 380 houses were damaged in the city, as per the statement.
Ukraine launches Green Transition Office; $40 billion in investment needed for national energy plan by 2030
Ukraine, with the support of the United Kingdom, has established the Green Transition Office, a unit designed to improve the implementation of energy and climate policies meant to support the country's integration into the EU.
The office will operate as an independent advisory body under Ukraine's Economy Ministry to help implement reforms in green transition, energy, and climate policy, the ministry said in a press release on Friday.
During a ceremony marking the launch of the office, Ukraine's Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Ambassador of the UK to Ukraine Martin Harris signed a memorandum to establish enhanced cooperation between the two countries for the implementation of Ukraine's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) until 2030.
Through the NECP, Ukraine seeks to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 65% from 1990 levels, attain a 27% share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption, and enhance energy source and supply route diversification, limiting reliance on any single supplier to a maximum of 30%, according to the statement.
"According to our preliminary estimates, significant investments are required to achieve the goals of the NECP — more than $40 billion by 2030 alone," said Ukraine's First Deputy Minister of Economy Oleksii Sobolev.
"We need to attract private and public financial resources to implement the plan," Soboleb added. "And our cooperation with international partners can be key in implementing specific programs to support Ukraine's decarbonization. We have a list of tools to organize transparent and coordinated investment attraction."
E-International Relations: Ukraine, Russia need negotiated settlement, not just ceasefire
Any ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would need to be followed by a negotiated settlement that would require difficult compromises, according to an op-ed in E-International Relations.
A negotiated settlement "is the only viable option to save lives and stabilize the economies of both countries," said the authors, UAinFocus Platform Director Maksym Beznosiuk and Martin A. Smith, Senior Lecturer in Defence and International Affairs at the Royal Military Academy.
After three years of war and multiple strategic stalemates, both sides have an interest in pursuing a ceasefire followed by a lasting compromise, as neither side is strong enough to secure a decisive military victory, the pair wrote.
This is particularly true for Ukraine, given that Russia holds an advantage in military manpower and a more resilient production base and reserves, according to Beznosiuk and Smith.
However, they noted, Russia still faces significant casualties for minimal territorial gains. Reflecting this reality, Russia has indicated its willingness—at least in principle—to consider a ceasefire, a stance that its leadership has signaled multiple times and continues to maintain, the pair wrote.
Missile intercept rate shows Ukraine has 'effective defense' in place, CSIS study concludes
Over the past two years, Ukraine has intercepted 79.8 percent of the missiles fired at the country by Russian forces, suggesting it has "effective defense mechanisms in place," according to a study by the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
The intercept rate shows Ukraine's air defense may involve "advanced missile defense systems capable of neutralizing a significant portion of incoming threats," CSIS said. "Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine."
An effective air defense is seen as an additional measure of security for the eventual reconstruction of Ukraine, and the government has repeatedly called for continued Western support for its air defenses as part of any negotiations to end the war, as well as membership in NATO and other security guarantees..
The CSIS study also shows August 2024 was the most active month for Russian missile attacks, with an average of 35.8 missiles launched daily for total of 1,110 missiles in the month.
The following month, only 12 missiles were launched per day, suggesting "a temporary lull in missile activities linked to either low stockpiles or Ukrainian long-range strikes," the study said.
Ukraine's Ministry of Economy said it is now analyzing, together with the European Commission, proposals for some €2 billion in European Investment Bank guarantees for public recovery projects under the Ukraine Investment Framework portion of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility.
UkraineInvest, the government investment promotion agency, introduces the staff and goals of its investment promotion department in a post on LinkedIn. Maksym Bondarenko, a corporate lawyer with over 15 years of experience, heads the department.
Timothy Ash, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House and a senior sovereign strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management in London, writes that "Trump has all the cards over Putin as he likely goes into peace talks over Ukraine, let's see if he really is the Master of the Art of Deal or just full of crap."
Mykola Stetsenko, president of the Ukrainian Bar Association, recaps the XVII Corporate Law Forum, which covered corporate governance improvements at state-owned enterprises driven by the EBRD and donors, as well as a "vision for Ukraine's stock market through IPOs of major companies."
