Contents
The Reporter's Notepad: URN Daily kicks off a period of travel, attending conferences and visiting readers, to the backdrop of the potentially pivotal US presidential election.
Just The Facts: The G7 leaders finally reach agreement on their $50 billion loan for Ukraine, Zelensky rejects a visit by the UN secretary general after the trip to Russia, Sweden allocates SEK 110 million to winter humanitarian aid in Ukraine and Lukashenko says North Korean presence in Ukraine war would mark escalation.
Here's What They Think: The Atlantic argues in an opinion piece that "the West worries too much about what Putin thinks" and Foreign Policy magazine says the West needs its own "victory plan" for the war in Ukraine.
Sober Second Opinion: A study published in the Psychiatry Research journal shows that populations as far away as Peru and Taiwan have suffered mental health effects resulting from the fighting that has followed the 2022 Russian invasion.
The Rebuilder's Social: The US deputy special representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery says the US and Ukraine are about to deepen cooperation on minerals, while AHK Ukraine says it's expanding its cooperation with Ukrainian financial institutions and Yulia Svyrydenko says she is looking to hire two deputy economy ministers.
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
URN Daily editor Adam Brown will be in London much of the week visiting readers and attending the 3rd annual Ukrainian Infrastructure Forum, with guest speakers representing the EBRD, DTEK, the Ukrainian government, the IFC, Dragon Capital, Neo-Eco, Kingspan and many more prominent organizations.
He'll be interviewing as many attendees as time allows. If you see him, please do say hi.
In fact, this week kicks off a period of travel for URN, as well as for many people interested in the reconstruction of Ukraine. We'll be in Warsaw in mid-November for the Rebuild Ukraine event and have several other events lined up as well - more on that later.
All this travel coincides, of course, with the US presidential elections. We'll be looking particularly to gauge the election's impact on the war and reconstruction in Ukraine, so that's a question we'll be posing a lot in the weeks to come.
G7 leaders reach agreement on $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by earnings from frozen Russian assets
Leaders of the G7 nations reached an agreement on a promised $50 billion loan package for Ukraine, backed by profits earned on frozen Russian assets, with the first money arriving as early as December.
"These loans will be serviced and repaid by future flows of extraordinary revenues stemming from the immobilization of Russian Sovereign Assets, in line with G7 respective legal systems and international law," the G7 said in a statement.
The loans, to be disbursed via multiple channels, are meant to support the government's budget, the military and reconstruction of the country, the statement said, adding that "our aim is to begin disbursing the funds by the end of the year."
The G7 leaders had initially promised the $50 billion loan at a summit in June and have since been discussing details such as the mechanism that will ensure some $300 billion in Russian assets remain frozen long enough for the profit they generate to pay back the loans, even if it means keeping them frozen after the war ends.
Poland contributes €25 million to EIB's Ukraine reconstruction fund
The Polish government has contributed €25 million to the European Investment Bank (EIB) fund dedicated to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The contribution brings the size of the EU for Ukraine Fund to €398.35 million, the EIB said in a press release on Friday.
Established in 2023 as part of the EU for Ukraine (EU4U) initiative, the fund aims to support Ukraine's infrastructure rebuilding, restore essential services, and boost economic growth.
The fund focuses on vital public and private reconstruction projects and enhancing access to finance for local entrepreneurs. Besides Poland, 13 EU countries have contributed to the fund, including Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain.
"This money will help drive public sector investment to rebuild critical infrastructure, as well as propping up Ukrainian entrepreneurs and businesses to keep the economy going," said the EIB's vice-president responsible for operations in Ukraine, Teresa Czerwińska. "On top of that, the EIB finances from its own resources advisory support to prepare infrastructure investment projects despite the ongoing war."
The guarantees provided under the fund allow the EIB to support reconstruction projects in Ukraine that might otherwise be too risky to finance. The EU for Ukraine Fund also supports project promoters and beneficiaries by reducing borrowing costs via investment grants.
The fund has already supported several projects, including by providing €25 million for an initiative to strengthen small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine and Moldova and €50 million for a new metro fleet in Kyiv.
Other projects in the pipeline include renovation works for damaged housing, repairs to Ukraine's critical export routes and an emergency response line for life-threatening situations, the EIB said.
Zelensky rejects visit by UN secretary general after trip to BRICS summit, sources say
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected a trip by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to Kyiv after Guterres attended the BRICS summit in Russia last week, an unnamed Ukrainian official told Reuters.
The trip by Guterres to the summit in the Russian city of Kazan drew widespread condemnation in Ukraine, with thousands of social media users slamming the visit while showing photos of Guterres shaking the hand of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"Even though some of its officials may choose the temptations of Kazan over the substance of the UN Charter, the world remains structured in such a way that the rights of nations and the norms of international law will always matter," Zelensky said after the visit.
A Ukrainian official told Reuters that Zelenskiy had now rejected the visit because of the BRICS appearance, without going into further detail.
Guterres, who has repeatedly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, called for a "just peace" at the BRICS summit hosted by Russia last week.
Two-thirds of companies polled in Ukraine have developed their own energy sources
Amid steady Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructures, two-thirds of companies polled by a Ukrainian business association say they now generate at least some of their own energy
Some 24 percent of the companies polled by the Kyiv-based European Business Association (EBA) said they have developed solar energy sources, while 19% have energy storage of some form, 17% have new networks and infrastructure, 11% have distributed gas generation, and 2% have biogas or biomethane plants.
Overall, 66% of the companies that generate energy cover less than half of their needs while 33% said they generate more than half of their needs from their own sources, the EBA said.
"Since 2022, 85% of businesses have invested in building energy independence, which is significantly more compared to 2021," the EBA said. "Additionally, companies have increased their capital investments. For example, the number of companies that invested over $200,000 has doubled compared to 2021—from 15% to the current 30%."
The poll also showed that 87% of companies polled had suffered disruption to their operations due to power supply issues. Some 67% were forced to halt operations while 60% suffered higher production costs and 48% had to adjust work schedules. Also, 36% reported a reduction in production or services, 11% suffered contract breaches, and 3% had a complete halt in operations.
The poll of 83 CEOs and top managers was conducted from Sept 10 to Oct 7.
Sweden allocates SEK 110 million to humanitarian aid in Ukraine ahead of winter
The Swedish government has allocated an additional SEK 110 million ($10.4 million) for humanitarian aid to help Ukrainians face the coming winter, to help clear land mines and to counter sexual violence.
The largest portion of the aid, SEK 50 million, will go to the Ukrainian Red Cross to help meet Ukrainians' needs for the winter, including ensuring access to heat and electricity, as well as distribution of food, hygiene products, medicine and water.
The government has allocated the second-biggest portion, of SEK 30 million, to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for mine clearance, "with a focus on mapping, prioritizing and securing agricultural land," the government said in a communique over the weekend.
SEK 20 million will go to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to help protect internally displaced persons and prepare them for the winter, while SEK 10 million will go to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to "contribute to meeting women's sexual and reproductive health needs, preventing sexual and gender-based violence and providing support to those who have been victims of violence."
UNDP to rebuild 11 schools in Ukraine with Germany's backing
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said it will refurbish 11 schools in Ukraine's Kirovohrad, Lviv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi and Cherkasy regions with financial support from the German government.
The planned repairs include restoration of premises damaged due to the war and replacement of systems that have malfunctioned, the UNDP said in a press release on Friday, adding that it will emphasize principles of energy efficiency and sustainable development.
The reconstruction will allow 6,153 students and 500 teachers to return to in-person learning, it said.
"Restoration of educational infrastructure is an investment in the future of the Ukrainian education system and the development of a new generation of progressive Ukrainians who can rebuild the country and make it stronger," said German Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Jäger.
According to UNDP's Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment report, 13% of Ukraine's educational infrastructure has been damaged by the hostilities, including approximately 4,000 educational facilities.
With support from the European Union, UNDP has rebuilt 42 schools and re-equipped 109 more in 10 Ukrainian regions, it said.
Putin says Russia to respond if West lifts restrictions on Kyiv's missile permissions
Russia's President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday the country's defense ministry is working on strategies to respond if the US and its NATO allies allow Ukraine to hit deep into Russia using long-range Western missiles.
"(The Russian defense ministry) is thinking about how to respond to the possible long-range strikes on Russian territory, it will offer a range of responses," Putin told Russian state TV's top Kremlin reporter, Pavel Zarubin, as quoted by Reuters.
In September, Putin said the country would amend its nuclear doctrine to lower the bar for the use of nuclear weapons.
"The updated version of the document is supposed to regard an aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state as their joint attack against the Russian Federation," Putin stated at the time.
Asked if the West heard Russia's warnings, Putin told Zarubin: "I hope they have heard. Because, of course, we will have to make some decisions for ourselves, too."
Putin said that only NATO officers would be able to fire long-range missiles into Russia and that they would need to use Western satellite data for targeting the weapons so the question is really "whether they will allow themselves to strike deep into Russian territory or not."
Belarus' Lukashenko tells BBC that presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine would represent escalation
Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, said in an interview with the BBC that the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine on the side of Russia would make an escalation in the conflict that could spark NATO involvement.
However, Lukashenko, who spoke to the BBC in Kazan, Russia, on the sidelines of the BRICS conference, said the claim that North Koreans are involved in the conflict "rubbish."
"Knowing his character Putin would never try to persuade another country to involve its army in Russia’s special operation in Ukraine," he said.
When asked if the claim is confirmed, he said "it would be a step towards the escalation of the conflict if the armed forces of any country, even Belarus, were on the contact line."
"Even if we got involved in the war this would be a path to escalation. Why? Because you, the Anglo-Saxons, would immediately say that another country had got involved on one side... so Nato troops would be deployed to Ukraine."
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that he has seen evidence that North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to Russia, possibly for deployment in Ukraine, marking a potential escalation in the conflict.
Earlier this week, South Korea has also said it may consider supplying weapons to Ukraine over alleged indications that North Korean soldiers are preparing to assist the Russian invasion.
Longer Reads
Ukrainian sappers race against the world's largest minefield
In a photo-heavy feature essay, EuroMaidan Press writes of the return of residents to the village of Maksymivka in Mykolaiv Oblast, 40 kilometers from the Kherson front, and the push to clear the area of land mines.
The article focuses on Norwegian People’s Aid (NPA), a humanitarian NGO that has sent 19 manual clearance teams to the Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts in southern Ukraine, which were taken back from Russian control in November 2022.
"The speed of operations has picked up thanks to technical game-changers like drones, binoculars, and rangefinders — optical, laser, or ultrasonic devices that measure distances to target objects," the article states. "These tools allow teams to detect unexploded ordnance without stepping into hazardous areas."
Washington worries too much about what Putin thinks
If Russian President Vladimir Putin was betting on the US to do nothing about the presence of North Korean troops on Russian soil, he appears to have made a good bet, The Atlantic writes.
"Since the beginning of the current war, in February 2022, the Biden administration has dithered again and again," Phillips Payson O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, writes in an opinion piece.
"Should Ukraine be offered high-tech American weaponry ... ? Would the U.S. allow Ukraine to use Western weaponry to attack Russian-occupied Crimea, the Russian-built Kerch Bridge, or military assets being used to attack Ukraine from just across the border in Russia? Could Ukraine attack military targets deeper in Russia?"
"Unfortunately for Ukraine, its most important partner isn’t thinking as clearly," he concludes. "We still don’t know, almost three years into the conflict, whether the U.S. wants Ukraine to win or is more concerned that Russia does not collapse."
A Western Victory Plan for Ukraine
"Ukraine’s allies should formally invite it to join NATO and provide more weapons to push back the Russian assault," argues an opinion piece in Foreign Policy magazine. "Only then will Russian President Vladimir Putin come to the negotiating table."
Author Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow and former director at Chatham House, writes in Foreign Policy magazine that the West is impeding Ukraine's defense by denying permission to use Western weapons to strike deep within Russia, while also expecting Ukraine to come up with a "victory plan."
"This is perverse," the article states. "If Western governments are sincere when they say that Ukraine’s fight is essential to their security and to the credibility of what’s left of the international order, then it is time they were clearer about their own definition of victory and the support they will provide to this end."
The article calls upon Western allies of Ukraine to come up with their own victory plan that will stop the Russian advance, send small non-combatant Western military units to Ukraine and, when the war eventually ends, bring Ukraine into NATO.
Psychiatry Research: Fighting in Ukraine has impacted mental health of populations as far as Peru and Taiwan, study suggests
Researchers have found that populations as far away as Peru and Taiwan have suffered mental health effects resulting from the fighting in Ukraine that has followed the 2022 Russian invasion.
"Importantly, broader groups of people who are neither directly nor actively engaged in RUW nor are near the conflict zones, but rather are watching from afar could be emotionally involved and could also experience war-related mental health repercussions," according to the introduction of the study, published in the journal Psychiatry Research.
While the most severe effects were in Ukraine, the study suggests physical proximity to Ukraine, the presence of Ukrainian refugees and fear of the war's spread were common factors taking a toll on the mental health of residents of countries nearby, such as Poland and Germany. However, economic consequences and media exposure bring the effects to people worldwide.
In the months immediately after the invasion, "high levels of anxiety were manifested by citizens and Ukrainian refugees in Poland ..., moderate to high levels of anxiety and depression ... were reported by Czech university students ... and severe anxiety was reported by Germans," the study finds.
For the same period, similarly high rates of stress, anxiety, depression, and PTSD were reported for Taiwanese ..., Poles ... and Ukrainians."
Tyson Barker, the US deputy special representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery, posted that "the U.S. and Ukraine are set to deepen their critical minerals cooperation" and Under Secretary Jose. W Fernandez, at the US Department of State, plans to sign a related agreement with Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko on Oct 29 in Washington.
Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, in a long post about her background, her parents and her views on business and politics on Sunday, said she's looking to hire two deputy economy ministers, responsible for attracting investment and collaborating with international organizations.
Natalia Hryshckenko, head of the Rebuild Team at AHK Ukraine - German-Ukrainian Chamber of Industry and Commerce said her organization is "stepping up cooperation with financial institutions" in Ukraine, and has recently met with Alexander Buglak, head of FIs and External Borrowings at JSC "State Savings Bank of Ukraine" and JSC Oschadbank CEO Sergii Naumov.
