Table of Contents
- The Reporter's Notepad. Exclusive reporting, observations from interviews and conversations with sources, plus the most comprehensive Meeting Notes you'll likely ever see.
- Just The Facts. All the news fit to read on the reconstruction of Ukraine, verified and originally reported by The RUB staff, unless otherwise attributed.
- Here's What They Think. Summaries of new opinion pieces from influential media outlets, pundits and intellectuals around the world.
- The Sober Second Thought. Reporting on the newest academic and think tank studies related to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
- The Rebuilder's Social. Important, influential or particularly insightful social media posts that illuminate the mood and plans of Ukraine and the rebuilders.
Exclusive
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
Yuriy Butsa, the Ukrainian government's debt chief, spoke to a small group of listeners, including Ukraine Rebuild Newswire, late yesterday about the national budget, debt servicing costs and other topics. Here was one of the more interesting points, of several.
As usual, URN Daily was again the only news organization there, which makes this story exclusive to you:
Ukraine aims to get $50 billion G7 loan within 2 months to help cover budget through 2026, debt chief says
Ukraine's government aims to secure the $50 billion loan promised from G7 nations within two months to leave the country able to financially get by for another two years despite the war and uncertainties of foreign aid, Ukraine's debt management chief said.
The promised loan will be an additional source of low-cost, or free, budget support that will let the country cope with budget demands through 2026, said Yuriy Butsa Governmental Commissioner for Public Debt Management.
The G7 loan "together with some of other commitments, such as IMF program like Japan, UK and others," Butsa said on a video call organized by AHK Ukraine. "We should be good in the current scenario for next two years."
The G7 loan hinges on using the proceeds from $300 billion in frozen Russian assets so it "requires a lot of smart lawyers talking to smart lawyers in terms I don't really understand," Butsa said. "But once it's done, and our goal is to have it done within the next one to two months, it gives us another $50 billion certainty for the next years."
The loan will more than match the €38 billion set aside in the European Union's €50 billion Ukraine Facility for the national budget. Besides those two main sources of foreign income, the International Monetary Fund has a four-year $15.6 billion program for Ukraine.
"We don't want to be in situation post war when we will have a headache that big part of our budget resources is going to the debt service, rather than to rebuilding the country"
He said large, multi-year loans like the G7 loan and the Ukraine Facility help the government keep debt costs low, along with the successful bond restructuring carried out in August, which included a 37% upfront principal haircut, as well as coupon reductions and maturity extensions.
"So now we have a war in a country with a high deficit, but our blended cost of debt is 4.6% so it's exactly the cost of US debt now for the US Treasury to finance," Butsa said. 'That's really helping us to keep the debt servicing under control."
"We don't want to be in a situation post-war when we will have a headache that big part of our budget resources is going to the debt service, rather than to rebuilding the country," he added.
Reader: We will be hearing more from Yuriy shortly. He said, for example, that the candidacy of Donald Trump in the US is helping Ukrainian bonds. More on that in tomorrow's news package.
Zelensky calls for immediate NATO membership as part of 'victory plan'
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an immediate invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and for the strengthening of the country's defense capabilities in a presentation of his 'victory plan' to end the war with Russia.
The plan, which envisages the end of the war by no later than next year, consists of five points and three secret annexes, Zelensky told lawmakers in a presentation to parliament on Wednesday.
The first point stresses NATO membership: "For decades, Russia has exploited geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, specifically the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member," Zelensky said. "And this is what tempted Russia to encroach on our security. And now, the fact that Ukraine is invited to join NATO could become truly fundamental for peace."
The second point relates to boosting Ukraine's defense capabilities: Zelensky said Ukraine's defense forces should continue operating in the Russian territory to prevent the creation of buffer zones.
He also said Ukraine's air defense system should be upgraded, and he called for joint defense operations with "our neighbors in Europe to shoot down Russian missiles and drones within the range of the partners' air shields."
As part of the second point, Zelensky proposed expanding operations involving Ukrainian missiles and drones and investing in increasing their production domestically. He also urged Ukraine's allies to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons throughout all territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia and on the territory of Russia itself, and to give Ukraine appropriate long-range capabilities, as well as real-time satellite data.
Under the third point, of deterrence, "Ukraine offers to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory that will be sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat posed by Russia and that will limit … the variability of Russia's actions to such prospects," Zelensky stated.
"In other words, the deterrence package is the fact that Russia is either going into diplomacy or going ... to lose its war machine," Zelensky said. “Peace through strength.,"
In the fourth, economy-related point, Zelensky proposed Ukraine offer a special agreement to the US, the EU and other allies on joint protection of critical resources available in Ukraine, joint investment and use of their economic potential.
Lastly, the fifth point, designed for the post-war period, envisages replacing certain military contingents of the US Armed Forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units.
The Kremlin, in reaction, dismissed the Ukrainian plan and urged Ukraine to "sober up."
"The only peace plan there can be is for the Kyiv regime to realize the futility of the policy it is pursuing and understand the need to sober up," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.
Zelensky's 'victory plan' proposes deal with US, EU to protect and invest in Ukraine's critical resources
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed concluding a special agreement with the US, the European Union, and other partners to jointly protect and invest in Ukraine's critical resources and use their economic potential, as part of his 'victory plan' to end the war with Russia.
In a presentation of the plan to lawmakers on Wednesday, Zelensky noted Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critical metals worth "trillions of US dollars."
"These include uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other strategic and strategically valuable resources that will strengthen either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world in global competition," Zelensky said.
The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with the country's energy and food production potential, are among the "key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war," Zelensky pointed out, adding these represent Ukraine's opportunity for growth.
"Economic growth of Ukrainians, of our entire state. Economic strengthening of the EU … And this is an opportunity for the US and our partners in the G7 to work with Ukraine — the ally that can provide a return on investment," Zelensky stated.
The special agreement "will organically complement and strengthen the existing system of economic pressure on Russia, namely, all existing sanctions against the Russian Federation, oil price restrictions, export restrictions to Russia, and other pressure measures," Zelensky said.
This part of the "victory plan," called "strategic economic potential," is the fourth of the plan's five points. The plan also includes three secret annexes. Zelensky said one of these annexes, which has been shared only with certain partners, relates to the fourth point.
US announces $425 million new military aid package for Ukraine
US President Joe Biden spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday and announced a $425 million military assistance package for Ukraine, the White House said.
The package includes additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs, according to a press release.
In the coming months, the US will give Ukraine a range of additional capabilities, including hundreds of air defense interceptors, dozens of tactical air defense systems, additional artillery systems, significant quantities of ammunition, hundreds of armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as thousands of additional armored vehicles.
In November, Biden will host a virtual leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, where the leaders will coordinate with international partners on additional assistance for Ukraine, as per the statement.
Zelensky thanked Biden for the support and said the two discussed the potential for providing Ukraine with more air defense systems.
"We are grateful to America for understanding our needs and supporting Ukraine's strengthening in order to force Russia into good faith diplomacy," Zelensky noted during the call.
World Bank, Ukraine to boost cooperation on projects to transform the economy, attract foreign investments
The World Bank and Ukraine will strengthen cooperation on projects to transform Ukraine's economy, promote the return of citizens, and attract foreign investments to rebuild the country after the war, the Economy Ministry said.
"We are interested in in-depth cooperation with the experts of the World Bank, in particular in matters of support for key reforms and strategic projects," Ukraine's Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said following a meeting on Wednesday with the World Bank Regional Country Director for Eastern Europe Bob Saum, as per a press release from the ministry.
"Together, we must create conditions for the innovative development of Ukraine's economy, which will ensure the return of Ukrainians who were forced to leave due to the war. The experience and expert support of the World Bank are extremely valuable in this process," she added.
The parties also discussed preparations for the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025), which will take place next year in Rome. The World Bank will determine which results can be presented at the conference, the ministry said.
The World Bank will also take an active role in preparing studies on the development of the Ukrainian economy in the post-war period, and it plans to launch the Ukraine Project Preparation Framework Program for the development of economically sound investment projects that meet the country's strategic goals in February 2025, according to the release.
The World Bank will participate in developing the state housing strategy, which will focus on supporting the vulnerable segments of the population. Measures to stimulate the construction and reconstruction of the housing stock, as well as the improvement of housing and communal infrastructure financing systems, were discussed.
The parties also discussed the creation of an intergovernmental working group, with the participation of World Bank experts, on the development and restoration of the housing stock.
"We are interested in expanding the further cooperation of the bank with the Ukrainian Financial Housing Company," Svyrydenko stated. "We ask you to contribute to the further development of the optimal financial and mortgage model with a focus on citizens who are most in need of housing."
The involvement of the World Bank in developing the capacity of local authorities to prepare projects in the regions, in particular those near the front line, where it is necessary to support economic activity, was also discussed.
Special attention was paid to the topic of human capital development, in particular retraining programs, including for women, and updating the Code of Labor Laws. The World Bank will help develop reforms aimed at creating a dynamic labor market in Ukraine.
Since February 2022, the World Bank Group has mobilized nearly $50 billion in financial support to Ukraine, of which over $39 billion had been disbursed, according to most recent World Bank data from Oct. 4. 95% of this financing was provided by development partners.
Ukraine requests international monitoring mission to Odesa ports amid Russian attacks
Ukraine has formally asked the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to send an international monitoring mission to Odesa ports amid intensified Russian attacks, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Wednesday.
Over the past month alone, Russian strikes have damaged four ships, including those carrying grain for Egypt and corn for Italy, as well as humanitarian cargo from the UN Food Program for Palestine, Sybiha said following a meeting with his counterparts from the Nordic-Baltic Eight group.
"These are the targets that Russia chooses for its attacks — civilian vessels, grain storage facilities, terminals. These are not just attacks on our economy. These are attacks on global food security. russia is putting millions of people in the world at risk of starvation," Sybiha stated.
Since the invasion in February 2022, Russia has carried out more than 50 attacks on Ukrainian ports, which damaged more than 300 port infrastructure facilities and 23 civilian vessels, and destroyed more than 100,000 tonnes of agricultural products, according to the minister.
Before the invasion, Ukraine exported 6 million metric tons of agricultural products per month, accounting for 10% of the global market. The war has disrupted exports, but the situation has been normalizing lately. Since February, Ukraine has been exporting 4 million-5 million metric tons per month, Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation analyst Artem Havrysh said in a recent interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Nordic and Baltic foreign ministers visit Odesa to deliver aid ahead of winter
The foreign ministers of the eight Nordic and Baltic countries visited the southern Ukrainia city of Odesa to pledge material aid ahead of winter had held talks with Ukrainian officials.
The ministers of the NB8, a group that includes Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway, have offered donations of turbines, generators, solar panels and transformers as well as money to shore up the energy sector and rebuild critical social infrastructure, according to a press release.
"This support, and the already earmarked support for next year, will strengthen Ukraine's ability to provide electricity, heating, clean water, health care, education, and other critical social and civilian infrastructure," the Swedish government, which is coordinating the NB8, said in a communique.
Also, "during the visit, a substantial Nordic-Baltic winter package was delivered in response to Ukraine’s most pressing needs ahead of the coming winter, including energy, social resilience and humanitarian support," the group said, without specifying the amounts of aid.
Ukraine to be 'central' topic as EU leaders meet at European Council this week, council president says
Ukraine will be the "central" topic as European Union leaders meet in Brussels for a two-day European Council session starting today, council President Charles Michel said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will president his five-point "victory plan" to end the war at the council meeting, after initially revealing it in the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday. The council consists of the heads of state of EU member nations.
"Ukraine will be central to our discussions," Michel said. "We will hear from President Zelenskyy about his proposed victory plan and work on the next steps to build consensus around a peace initiative rooted in the principles of the UN Charter and international law."
He said council members "will also sharpen our focus on our financial engagement to Ukraine," he said, adding that "we should also assess the support provided so far and intensify our efforts as winter nears. With over half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure destroyed, winterization efforts need urgent attention."
The Philadelphia Inquirer: Ukraine-Russia peace talks can’t work unless Kyiv is invited to join NATO
The demands of Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine cedes Russia-occupied land, disarm and agree to never join NATO would be "suicide" for Ukraine, according to an opinion piece in The Philadelphia Inquirer.
"The Russian leader would use such a deal to give his army a breather and then restart the war," wrote Trudy Rubin, a columnist with the newspaper.
Instead, she wrote, Ukraine must be allowed in NATO, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demands in his "victory plan" to end the war, if there is to be peace.
"Perhaps Biden will realize he still has a brief window to leave a positive legacy by green lighting long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia — and convincing his NATO allies to issue that desperately needed invitation to Ukraine," she added.
"Otherwise, peace talks would be nothing but surrender to Putin, or a gust of useless Washington hot air."
Ukrainian land surveying sector has atrophied and will need support to cope with reconstruction, research paper says
The Ukrainian geodetic business sector, which provides services such as surveying and land measurement, has atrophied during the war and will need government help to underpin the reconstruction of the country without serving as a bottleneck, according to a new paper.
The paper, published by the peer-reviewed open-access Ukrainian academic journal Oblìk ì fìnansi (Accounting & Finance), says demand for geodetic services has been low during the war but will boom when it ends. The paper's titled "State Support for Geodetic Business - An Important Prerequisite for Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine."
The paper, written by researchers at the agriculture-focused Uman National University of Horticulture, recommends government support for the sector, focused on tax policies to help geodetic businesses during the reconstruction period.
Exempting large geodetic companies from corporate income tax for a few years could be effective, they said. Other incentives, like investment and innovation benefits, as well as tax breaks for purchasing modern geodetic tools and software, would also help.
The government could support small geodetic businesses by exempting them from paying certain taxes for between five and eight years, removing the requirement to use specific transaction registers, and excusing them from military duties.
The paper also suggests changes to indirect taxes, such as simplifying tax invoicing processes and offering preferential tax credits for buying new tools. The introduction of a special tax regime for value-added tax on geodetic services during the first few years after the war would also help the sector recover.
Chatham House: Four scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine
There are four possible outcomes for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: 'long war', 'frozen conflict', 'victory for Ukraine', and 'defeat for Ukraine', Chatham House's Associate Fellow at Russia and Eurasia Program John Lough said in a research paper published on Wednesday.
'Long war' would test each side's limits, 'frozen conflict' would stabilize the front line where it is, 'victory for Ukraine' would imply a Western policy shift on support that allows Ukraine to force Russia back to at least the demarcation line of Feb. 23, 2022, 'defeat for Ukraine' would mean Ukraine's acceptance of Russian terms of surrender and territorial losses, Lough wrote.
Five variables will determine the nature of any peace arrangement acceptable to Ukraine: how much territory the country will control; the extent of economic damage; the level of population loss; the level of security it can maintain; and the level of required investment in its defense to deter further aggression, according to Lough.
The strategic challenge Ukraine will face when martial law is lifted is whether it will be able to maintain enough resolve to strengthen its institutions and create the level of economic growth needed to recover.
"The sociological, economic and political consequences of the war will make this task particularly difficult regardless of which scenario materializes," Lough argued.
Ukrainian investment advisory Capital Times published today a report on M&A in the country's cybersecurity sector, mentioning that five deals worth $39 million have been recorded in the past four years.
Ukrainian state nuclear power generator Energoatom said it will expand its cooperation with Saskatchewan, Canada-based uranium fuel provider Cameco, as Ukraine plans to increase its nuclear capacities.
Energoatom also highlighted a statement by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi that "We will be there to rebuild. Ukraine, again, will have one of Europe’s biggest nuclear power programs."
UNDP Ukraine posted that it has opened sustainable development offices in Pereshchepyne, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Konotop, Sumy Oblast, with the help of the government of Sweden, to help "local authorities prioritize projects for donors, funds and programs."
Ukrainian Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko announced the allocation of a combined 171.4 million hryvnias in state aid for Bila Tserkva Industrial Park 2 and the Misto Skla industrial park in Kyiv region, as well as the VinIndastri park in the Vinnytsia region.
