Table of Contents
- The Reporter's Notepad. Exclusive reporting, observations from interviews and conversations with sources, plus the most comprehensive Meeting Notes you'll likely ever see.
- Just The Facts. All the news fit to read on the reconstruction of Ukraine, verified and originally reported by The RUB staff, unless otherwise attributed.
- Here's What They Think. Summaries of new opinion pieces from influential media outlets, pundits and intellectuals around the world.
- The Sober Second Thought. Reporting on the newest academic and think tank studies related to the reconstruction of Ukraine.
- The Rebuilder's Social. Important, influential or particularly insightful social media posts that illuminate the mood and plans of Ukraine and the rebuilders.
Exclusive
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
An expert panel just held by Chatham House under the title "Funding Ukraine's Recovery: Role of the Private Sector" produced some interesting information, with speakers from the EBRD, the European Commission and Ukraine's Economy Ministry.
As usual, URN Daily was the only news organization there, which makes the following two stories exclusive to you:
Ukrainian government in talks to give UkraineInvest 'stronger' means to woo investors, official says
The Ukrainian government is in talks about the possibility of giving investment promotion agency UkraineInvest more enticements to attract investment, Deputy Economy Minister Oleksii Sobolev said.
"We're right now discussing additional support to UkraineInvest to make it even more capable," Sobolev said on a forum organized by Chatham House on Tuesday. "This organization can offer the investors already help from the government, but we need to make it even stronger, so we have something more useful to the private sector."
UkraineInvest currently has a package of potential benefits for foreign investors, including possible exceptions from income tax, customs duties and VAT, state help for construction and infrastructure, and more, depending on the size and type of the investment.
Last week, the government announced it will offer, through UkraineInvest, a series of tax advantages to agro-industrial holding Astarta and water park operator Bukovel for planned investments under the so-called "invest nanny" program to encourage development despite the ongoing war.
The "invest nanny" plan offers incentives to companies planning "significant investments of at least €12 million, particularly in the processing industry, mineral extraction, transport, logistics, education, scientific activity, health care, waste management, art, culture, tourism, sports and electronic communications.
"The famous investment nanny started actually working," Sobolev said at the Chatham House forum. "The market did not entirely believe that it will happen, and it is happening, and we're right now seeing businesses getting more interested."
"We're very, very encouraged by that from the government side, because the government wants to compensate part of the capexes for bigger investment projects," he said.
European Commission is 'confident' €9.3 billion Ukraine Investment Framework will mobilize €40 billion, official says
The European Commission is "confident" that its €9.3 billion Ukraine Investment Framework will mobilize €40 billion in investments, because the figure is based on "the track record we have had since the onset of the invasion," said a commission official.
The commission has repeatedly said the €9.3 billion framework, which includes €7.8 billion in loan guarantees and €1.51 billion for blended finance, will mobilize more than four times that much in investment.
"What we have done, ahead of communicating this kind of number, is that we have looked into all the programs that were rolled out in Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion," Orest Tokac, policy coordinator at the Ukraine Service of the European Commission, said on a forum organized by Chatham House on Tuesday.
"We have looked into how much these programs have already delivered and we have taken this as a benchmark. So we are indeed rather confident," he added.
The Ukraine Investment Framework is the so-called "Pillar II" of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility package of European Union support for Ukraine to be handed over between 2024 and 2027. The first, and largest, pillar consists of more than €38 billion in loans and grants for Ukraine's budget. The third pillar includes about €4.8 in technical support.
Tokac also said the estimate that the €1.4 billion in guarantee and grant agreements signed earlier this year under Pillar II will generate €6 billion in investments "is actually backed up with estimations and calculations that have been provided for us by partner financial institutions."
"It is not only a soft estimate, but to some extent, also a contractual obligation, where we require our partners to provide what we are calling leverage," he said. "In this first package of investment programs, we have actually all the numbers per program."
"We have been told by our partners from financial institutions: 'this is the finance that I can provide with your guarantee or with your investment grant.' And indeed, this sums up to €6 billion altogether," he said.
For the full URN Meeting Notes on the Wednesday afternoon Chatham House conversation mentioned above, see this link.
Also, see the URN Meeting Notes at this link on the interview by the Ukrainian Arbitration Association yesterday of Yulia Kyrpa, member of the Board of the Register of Damages Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
The interview covered progress on creating new categories for compensation, types of evidence required for compensation and other topics.
UNDP proposes new types of bonds and businesses to fund mine clearance and transition to green practices in Ukraine
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has proposed new funding mechanisms that would link mine clearance in Ukraine with sustainable economic practices such as no-till farming and solar energy generation.
A report released Tuesday by the UN agency, with funding from the governments of the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the UK, proposes what it calls two key solutions: a Sustainability-Linked Bond (SLB) and an Outcome-Based Public-Private Partnership (OB-PPP).
The bond, with a 10-year term, is meant to fund both mine clearance on farmland and a transition to sustainable agriculture at the same time, the agency says in an 80-page report. The interest rate would be linked to both the success of demining and the transition to sustainable farming.
A World Bank report released early this year estimated the cost of mine clearance in Ukraine at $34 billion, making it one of the costliest aspects of the reconstruction. It's also one of the most urgent, as mined property needs to be cleared before it can be rebuilt.
"This gap can't be filled by conventional means," the authors said. "Linking mine action and sustainability in Ukraine ticks all the boxes and has tremendous potential for Ukraine and its supporters. It’s a double win when demining – which is always a good thing – is linked to sustainable agriculture and energy security, even when a conflict is ongoing."
The UNDP report proposes a $250 million bond issued by the government of Ukraine in a model based on land being transitioned to organic winter wheat and no-till agriculture. Half of the proceeds from bond sales go to mine clearance, and half to sustainability initiatives.
Such a bond could enable the transition of 10 sites of 12,500 hectares each from mine sites to sustainable farms, according to the report. The government, through corporate taxes and a "special demining charge" could earn $290 million in revenue over 25 years from the land, the authors said.
Outcome-Based Public-Private Partnership
The public-private partnership model, meanwhile, would link mine clearance with private sector development, such as the construction of a solar farm.
"The model involves the private sector investing in clearing the area for the solar farm and constructing it, while receiving concessions from the government of Ukraine and outcome-based payments as incentives from donors," the report said.
Also, in this case, the government would recoup the cost of its concessions for demining through taxes and a special demining charge.
"The model shows how a pilot project sized 10 MW solar farm costing $10 million to develop could bring in $13 million in new private sector funding for mine action through revenue sharing," the report said.
"Ukraine has been identified as a country that could provide significant solar power with a potential capacity gap for new solar power of up to 6 GW," the authors wrote. "If this model were to be replicated for the entirety of Ukraine’s solar energy potential at a cost of $5-6 billion, this could bring an additional $7-8 billion for mine action."
Ukraine's regional platforms linking local authorities, businesses start operating
Ukraine’s regional offline and online platforms for communication between entrepreneurs and local authorities have started operating in all regions of the country, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Viktor Mykyta said.
"The main objective of the initiative is to improve the economic and investment climate in the regions, increase the number of new enterprises, expand existing production facilities, and improve the dynamics of local budget revenues, among others," Mykyta said in a post on Telegram on Tuesday.
As part of the project, open online meetings of entrepreneurs with local authorities will be held weekly in each region, and they will be held monthly by the head of the region in person.
In addition, a regional forum will be held quarterly with the participation of representatives of budget-forming enterprises of the region, specialized ministries, and community leaders
Mykyta said local issues brought up at these meetings will be responded to immediately, while state-level inquiries are formalized by appeals and proposals to the relevant institutions
"The new format of systemic and constructive dialogue between government and business at the regional level will allow for a timely response to requests from entrepreneurs, support them, and form a package of proposals that is critically important in war conditions for consideration at a meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities under the President of Ukraine," Mykyta said.
EC ready to allocate €3 million for IAEA missions at Ukrainian substations amid fears of Russian attacks
The European Commission (EC) is ready to mobilize an additional €3 million to support the work of the missions by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to Ukraine's electricity substations linked to nuclear power plants, European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said.
The EU energy ministers discussed at a meeting on Tuesday "Ukraine's concerns about Russia's potential attacks on substations linked to nuclear power plants," Simson said following the meeting.
"I have informed Ministers today that the Commission is ready to mobilize additional €3 million to support the missions by the IAEA to the substations," she added.
Simson also recalled that more than half of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been destroyed by Russian attacks, while 9 GW of power generation capacity has been lost since March.
She also reiterated the EU's plan to address Ukraine's energy needs for the winter, which includes €160 million in funding, among other measures.
Latvia approves €1.7 million in funding to support Ukraine
Latvia's government has approved a €1.7 million allocation to the country's foreign affairs and finance ministries for support and reconstruction of Ukraine, the foreign ministry said.
The financing will go towards addressing Ukraine's energy challenges, human rights protection, humanitarian demining, and macro-financial and reform support, among others, the ministry said in a press release on Tuesday.
The funding granted to the foreign ministry will mainly cover contributions paid to international organizations, including the United Nations programs and bodies, the Energy Community's Ukraine Energy Support Fund, the Council of Europe's Register of Damage, the World Health Organisation, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, The Halo Trust, and the Grain from Ukraine program.
€100,000 is allocated to the Centre MARTA association for the reconstruction of premises at the Ukrainian Ombudsman's Centre for the Protection of Human Rights in Chernihiv, and €250,000 goes to the Ministry of Finance for contributing to the World Bank's program towards Ukraine's macro-financial and reform support.
On April 11, Latvia and Ukraine signed an agreement on long-term support and security commitments, outlining Latvia's commitments to the reconstruction of Ukraine and specific areas of support.
Zelensky invited to present 'victory plan' to the European Council on Thursday
European Council President Charles Michel said he has invited Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky to present his "victory plan" proposal for ending the war to a meeting of European Union leaders this week.
"I have invited President Zelensky to the European Council summit on Thursday, 17 October to take stock of the latest developments of Russia’s war against Ukraine and present his victory plan," Michel wrote on his X social media account, without providing further details.
Leaders of the EU nations will meet at the two-day summit to discuss military support for Ukraine as well as the use of revenue from frozen Russian assets to help the country, along with other measures, according to the council.
The Kyiv Independent newspaper said Zelensky plans to unveil his victory plan in parliament on Wednesday but will share some parts of it only with fraction leaders of the legislature.
David Arakhamia, the leader of Zelensky's Servant of the People parliamentary group, told the newspaper only part of the plan will be declassified on Wednesday.
"I think part will be declassified, and the other part will be presented to the leaders of (parliamentary groups)," Arakhamia told the Kyiv Independent.
So far, only general outlines of the five-step plan have been disclosed to the public and international leaders, including US President Joe Biden and European officials, in an effort to garner support for a path to peace. The strategic framework includes military, diplomatic, and economic components.
Swedish health minister visits Kyiv to promise help with healthcare reforms for EU integration
Swedish Health Minister Akko Ankarberg Johansson visited Kyiv to sign an agreement committing his government to helping Ukraine carry out healthcare reforms needed for European Union integration, the Ukrainian government said.
Help with EU accession will include advice, educational activities, and assistance with the establishment of a single regulatory authority for medicines in Ukraine to ensure compliance with the quality standards of EU regulatory systems, according to a press release.
Sweden also committed to "deepening cooperation in the field of knowledge and technology transfer for medical personnel in areas of mutual interest, such as cancer treatment, mental health, trauma and rehabilitation, including prosthetics."
The Washington Post: Are Americans Ready to Give up on Ukraine
In an opinion piece in The Washington Post, editor at large Robert Kagan wrote that, even if Ukraine accepts territorial concessions to bring an end to the war, the post-war relationship between Russia and Ukraine will remain hostile and prone to more fighting.
"The war has transformed both Ukraine and the military balance in central and Eastern Europe," he wrote. "Today, Ukraine has more than 900,000 active-duty soldiers and hundreds of thousands of trained and battle-tested reserves. It has become, in fact, larger than the forces of Britain, Germany and Poland combined."
He said that, after a forced settlement, Ukraine would be an "intensely hostile neighbor" to Russia.
"Ukrainians won’t soon forget the death, destruction, murder and torture suffered at Russia’s hands during the war. There will be potent strains of revanchism as Ukrainians mourn their lost territory and yearn for its eventual return."
That would mean that "Putin gets an angry, powerful, revanchist Ukraine, heavily armed and trained by the West and increasingly integrated in NATO, with or without formal membership."
Time for 'innovative financing' in Ukraine has arrived, UNDP study says
The time for "innovative financing" in Ukraine has come, as support for new means of funding is strong both domestically and internationally, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) wrote in a new report.
The report, which focuses on new means of funding mine clearance in the country, also covers the topic of innovative financing in general, stating that "there is a strong and growing appetite for innovative finance in Ukraine" as well as "a strong desire by a group of supportive donors to advance innovative financing in Ukraine."
The 80-page report, funded by the governments of the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the UK, makes eight key recommendations, including that "Ukraine’s Ministries of Economy and Finance should consider their appetites for exploring initiatives that are based on increased debt and/or concessions."
It also suggests "Ukraine's Ministry of Economy, IFIs, international donors and supporters should assess how they can use the full range of international financial assistance, including aid, in a blended way to incentivize or subsidize market-based approaches."
In total, the report identified a list of 39 "innovative finance mechanisms that could potentially form part of products to accelerate demining in Ukraine in the short, medium and long term."
Ukrainian law firm Avellum outlines changes to the Ministry of Defence's "War and Sanctions" Portal, including new sections on Russian ships involved in the illegal transport of Ukrainian products, stolen Ukrainian heritage, and partners’ sanctions lists.
Dmitriy Lampert, partner at Chicago Atlantic's Trident Strategy for Ukraine, continues a series of posts from Trident Strategy staff from remote sites as they apparently check out investments, without a direct explanation. This time, he's in a farm field amid a squash harvest, addressing agriculture.
Similar recent Chicago Atlantic staff posts have come from a meeting with the mayor of Vinnytsia, an undisclosed site in "industrial Ukraine," with farm machinery, in an apparently not-yet-built industrial park, and at an agri-processing site, among others.
Invest in Lviv, the Investment and Projects Office of Lviv City Council, named ATB-Market, Kindgeek, ULAR Farming Group, Poner, and Markquen as some of the companies helping rebuild damaged buildings in the city's #TakeCareAboutBuilding Initiative.
Ukrhydroenergo, the state-run hydropower generator, announced that it has canceled its tender for legal services in the arbitration case for last year's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. It said it "remains committed to pursuing full compensation" but will meet with the "government and other key stakeholders to determine the most appropriate course of action.
FAO policy and program adviser in Ukraine, Mikhail Malkov, posted that the FAO and Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine plan to "join efforts in promoting agrarian diplomacy in Ukraine." Agrarian diplomacy, he said, is centered on training "specialists to promote agricultural products on international markets on the basis of specialized higher education institutions."
