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Reporter's Notepad: A US venture capital firm heavily involved in the Ukraine military technology scene emailed URN Daily to say, with "high confidence," that last week's US election will have a "net positive impact" on its investment thesis. Details inside.
Plus, URN Daily is preparing for coverage of the massive Rebuild Ukraine event in Warsaw this week. The conference and exhibition this year will focus on policy priorities, investment opportunities, electricity grid innovations, renewable energy, AI applications in energy, and workforce development, among dozens of other issues.
Just The Facts: Trump's rumored picks for national security adviser and secretary of state could suggest a focus on coordinating a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Plus, the IMF starts its sixth review of its Ukraine loan arrangement, and the government gathers leading scientists to speed up soil analysis of former battlegrounds.
Here's What They Think: The hesitation of the Western countries to provide Ukraine with security guarantees risks pushing nations globally to turn to nuclear weapons as a deterrent, former US Marine and journalist Julian McBride wrote in an op-ed for the Kyiv Independent.
Sober Second Thought: The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine should adopt the objectives of the European Green Deal (EGD) - the European Commission's policy to make the European Union climate neutral by 2050 to ease EU accession, the DiXi Group, an energy-focused Ukrainian think tank, says in a policy brief.
The Rebuilder's Social: Volodymyr Kuzyo, who served as deputy economy minister of Ukraine until last month, has become CFO of PJSC Bank Lviv, the International Chamber of Commerce promises "an initiative to ensure that national trade agencies promote Ukrainian exports" and UNDP Ukraine announces that another hospital has signed an ESCO contract to install a solar power plant.
Venture capital firm
URN Daily just got an email from Justin Zeefe, founder of US-based Green Flag Ventures, with some interesting observations about the US election. Green Flag is one of the earliest firms to offer a clear public reaction to the election:
"We assess with high confidence that the outcome of U.S. elections will accelerate the trends Green Flag Ventures originally bet on: heightened Ukrainian innovation, growing European defense self-reliance, and increased global investment in Ukrainian technology," Zeefe's team wrote in a letter that also went out to limited partners.
"In essence, we anticipate a net positive impact on Green Flag Ventures’ investment thesis."
Green Flag Ventures, which has invested in Kara Dag Technologies, Himera, Swarmer and AstraNav, reckons that Ukraine will retain its sovereignty in any peace agreement, that the European Union recognizes the "urgent" need for defense investment and that Russia is facing "severe economic strain."
Also, Ukraine has grown tired of the "aid drip" policy of the outgoing US administration and is ready for deeper relationships with Europe as well as, possibly, with the Trump administration, depending on the new government's policies, according to the letter.
"The growth in European defense spending, Ukraine’s resilience and tech-driven innovation, and Russia’s economic limitations collectively create a favorable environment for our portfolio companies," Green Flag wrote. "A sovereign Ukraine, strengthened in any peace deal, will reinforce its role as Europe’s dominant hub for dual-use technology and innovation."
For the full letter, click here.
In other news, URN Daily editor Adam Brown is flying to Poland today to attend the Nov 13-14 Rebuild Ukraine event in Warsaw.
The year's event will include exhibitions from hundreds of companies, booths from various ministries and governments as well as speeches from government, private sector and civil society representatives.
The six main areas of this year's event include: policy priorities, investment opportunities, electricity grid innovations, renewable energy, AI applications in energy, and workforce development.
He hopes to see you there. If you can't make it, you can read about it in these pages in the coming days.
IMF starts sixth review of Ukraine loan arrangement
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) started the sixth review of its loan arrangement, or Extended Fund Facility (EFF), with Ukraine, the country's finance ministry said in a press release on Monday.
For the review, Ukraine should review pre-war policies and practices for medium-term budget planning, evaluate financial risks to stability and create action plans for different scenarios, analyze the debts and financial status of District Heating Companies, and develop a state ownership policy for SOEs, a dividend policy, and a privatization strategy, the ministry said.
"We have successfully completed five program reviews and expect a successful sixth review in December, which would result in the next tranche of about $1.1 billion," Ukraine's Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko stated.
To date, Ukraine has received six disbursements totaling about $8.7 billion from the IMF's EFF arrangement, out of the $15.6 billion allocated for the program, as per the statement.
The IMF's previous assessment, in September, revealed disagreements with Ukraine's central bank regarding the rate of hryvnia devaluation and interest-rate policies, unnamed sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Additionally, the IMF found Ukraine's proposed tax hikes inadequate and suggested raising the value-added tax, according to the sources.
In October, Ukraine's parliament approved the country's first major tax hikes since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, lifting several taxes, including the war tax and taxes on self-employed and small businesses. The law is yet to be signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Ukraine refines 'victory plan' pitch with eye on US military and economic ties in Trump administration
Ukraine is refining its "victory plan" to align with the incoming Trump administration, with a focus on business opportunities, military support, and access to natural resources, the Financial Times reported.
Two of the ideas laid out in President Volodymyr Zelensky's plan were built with Trump in mind, according to unnamed people involved in the plans. The ideas were presented to Trump in New York in September.
One idea would see US troops stationed in Europe replaced with Ukrainian forces after the war. The second idea — first devised by Trump's fellow Republican Lindsey Graham — would see Ukraine sharing its critical resources with western partners.
Separately, Ukrainian business leaders are discussing the possibility of offering Trump "investment screening" powers, allowing him to approve or block foreign business in the country. The plan is aimed at reducing Ukrainian dependency on Chinese technology, which might appeal to Trump as Ukrainian industries could switch to US suppliers and attract more Western investment, one source said.
While Zelensky described his initial conversation with Trump following his re-election as "great," both Ukraine and its European allies remain concerned that the incoming US administration may scale back its military support if Trump seeks a peace deal with Russia. Kyiv and its allies worry that Russian President Vladimir Putin could leverage Russia's battlefield advantage to pressure the US into accepting a peace deal that favors Moscow.
Separately, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot recommended that Ukraine and its allies not jump to conclusions about how Trump will handle the conflict, Politico reported, citing Barrot during Paris Peace Forum. In Paris, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed "unwavering" support for Ukraine in meetings following Trump's re-election, according to reports by BBC and the Financial Times.
Moreover, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has accused European leaders of dangerously escalating the Ukraine conflict following the re-election of Trump, Reuters reported.
"Generally speaking, it is surprising to what extent the current generation of European politicians wants to drag the war into their territory," Medvedev said.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden invited Trump to come to the Oval Office on Wednesday to discuss why "the US should not walk away from Ukraine," the Guardian reported, citing Biden's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan during an interview with CBS.
Kremlin denies reports that Putin talked with Trump last week
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday denied reports that Russia's President Vladimir Putin and US President-elect Donald Trump had spoken recently.
On Sunday, The Washington Post first reported that Putin and Trump spoke last week, citing unnamed sources. The newspaper said that Trump told Putin not to escalate in Ukraine.
"This is completely untrue," Peskov said, as quoted by Reuters. "This is pure fiction, it's just false information. There was no conversation. This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications."
Asked whether Putin has plans for any contacts with Trump, Peskov said: "There are no concrete plans yet."
Marco Rubio, who wants a negotiated settlement in Ukraine, will likely become US secretary of state, sources say
US President-elect Donald Trump plans to appoint Florida Senator Marco Rubio, known for his hawkish stance on China, as the next US secretary of state, The New York Times reported, without citing its sources.
Rubio, who would become the first Latino to hold the nation's top diplomatic post, has said he wants a negotiated settlement in the war in Ukraine, adding that he thinks the war has reached a stalemate and "needs to be brought to a conclusion."
Neither Rubio's office nor Trump's team would comment on the report that he will become secretary of state.
The report comes after Trump said on the weekend that Mike Pompeo, his former secretary of state, will not be joining his government this time. Pompeo is generally seen as a strong ally of Ukraine.
Trump to appoint Mike Walz, who wants to reconsider goals in Ukraine, as national security adviser, sources say
US President-elect Donald Trump plans to appoint Mike Walz, a Republican lawmaker, as national security adviser, Reuters reported, citing two unnamed sources.
Walz, a retired Army Green Beret who has been a leading critic of China, called on President Joe Biden to send arms to Ukraine after the full-scale Russian invasion but may have changed his stance since.
At an event last month, Waltz called for a reassessment of the aims of the US in Ukraine, the news agency said.
"Is it in America's interest, are we going to put in the time, the treasure, the resources that we need in the Pacific right now badly?" Waltz asked.
Waltz has supported Trump's insistence that NATO allies boost defense spending but has not called for the US to abandon the organization.
Ukrainian scientists, ministries adopting international soil analysis methods to return battlegrounds to farmers
Ukraine's Economy Ministry is working to adopt an internationally recognized methodology for soil analysis to speed up the return of former battlegrounds to agriculture and other uses, the ministry said.
The government has "engaged scientists from leading Ukrainian universities to build a scientifically based probabilistic model of the transition of potential pollutants into agricultural products," the ministry said in a communique.
"This model will help identify areas where there may be a greater risk to product quality due to the terrain, soil composition, and groundwater," it said.
Deputy Economy Minister Ihor Bezkaravainyi is heading the working group that's creating a system for analysis of soils affected by hostilities and developing recommendations for farmers, the ministry said.
The working group is coordinated by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and includes the Economy Ministry, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources and the Ministry of Defence.
The group is also "strengthening the capacity of domestic laboratories to carry out analyses and facilitating their certification according to international standards to recognize the results of their work globally," according to the communique.
“Most of the sites we are currently working on as part of the humanitarian demining program are not in close proximity to the frontline," Bezkaravainyi said. "They are only sporadically contaminated with explosive ordnance, and the content of heavy metals or toxic substances in such soils does not have a significant impact on product quality."
Longer Reads
Ukraine is scavenging for power-plant parts as mass blackouts loom
In a photo-heavy feature report, The Wall Street Journal tells the story of Ukrainians seeking to keep their electricity grid functioning despite constant bombardments by Russian forces.
The feature writes of the "Herculean task" of workers in the front-line city of Kurakhove who were ordered this spring to dismantle and entire power station and move the generators, transformers and other vital parts for use elswhere in the country - all while under threat from hostile fire.
“It was, of course, very difficult,” said the power station’s boss, Anatoliy Borichevskiy, who delivered the news in the spring to the site’s 1,000 workers, many of whom grew up in the industrial town dominated by the plant, according to the newspaper report. “We had no choice.”
"The looming energy crunch has thrust companies such as DTEK to the center of a mission crucial to the country’s war effort," the WSJ report says. "As the country’s largest private energy company, DTEK operates the Kurakhove plant and before the full-scale invasion typically supplied about one-quarter of the country’s electricity."
The Kyiv Independent: Western inaction on Ukraine's security guarantees could trigger global nuclear proliferation
The hesitation of the Western countries to provide Ukraine with security guarantees risks pushing nations globally to turn to nuclear weapons as a deterrent, former US Marine and journalist Julian McBride wrote in an op-ed for the Kyiv Independent.
McBride argued that Ukraine has been "left in limbo" in its search for NATO membership amid Russian occupation and due to Western bureaucracy. Kyiv stipulated NATO membership as one path to victory, McBridge noted.
"If membership remains out of reach, Ukraine may restart its nuclear program, triggering a domino effect of nuclear proliferation — a consequence the West would directly bear due to its failure to manage escalation," McBridge wrote.
Ukraine must be rebuilt under European Green Deal ideals, creating new industries, DiXi Group policy brief says
The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine should adopt the objectives of the European Green Deal (EGD) - the European Commission's policy to make the European Union climate neutral by 2050 to ease EU accession, the DiXi Group, an energy-focused Ukrainian think tank, says in a policy brief.
"The EGD, its tools and mechanisms can and should be integrated into the reconstruction of Ukraine, especially given the 'build back better' principle," the think tank concludes. "Such planning should include the creation of new industries, value chains (in manufacturing), and therefore, it shall be strategic."
The Russian invasion has made clear the importance of energy autonomy and reinforced the security aspect of the green transition, the authors wrote, noting that the war has changed the geopolitical situation in Europe, which Ukraine can use to ensure economic, food, environmental and climate security in the future.
The EGD has also significantly influenced EU energy, climate, and environmental policy and law, leading to substantial updates in the EU acquis. Ukraine, which is negotiating to join the EU, will need to align its legislation with this updated acquis.
"In this regard, the impact of the EGD on Ukraine will continue in the future in the form of more complex tasks for the implementation of the acquis in the fields of energy, climate change, the functioning of the internal market, industrial pollution, environmental protection, etc," DiXi Group said.
Volodymyr Kuzyo, who served as deputy economy minister of Ukraine until last month, announced he has taken a position as CFO and deputy chair of the management board at PJSC Bank Lviv.
MHP, Ukraine's largest poultry producer, posted highlights of a presentation by Deputy CEO Yuriy Melnyk, stating that "the poultry sector in Ukraine is perhaps the most prepared for European integration compared to other branches of the food industry."
Davide Cichero, chief of staff at the International Chamber of Commerce, said his organization will translate the info from its OneClick portal into Ukrainian and work "on an initiative to ensure that national trade agencies promote Ukrainian exports, in addition to domestic products."
UNDP Ukraine posted that a hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mala Vyska, in the Kirovohrad region, has signed a contract with an ESCO (energy service company) to install a 100 kW solar plant that will replace more than 100,000 kWh of traditional electricity. As ESCOs are rewarded based on savings, the project comes at no cost to the hospital's budget.
