Contents
Reporter's Notepad: Ukraine is back to business after a multi-day freeze-up to watch the US elections. Plus, a DTEK official offers clear examples of what "decentralization" means for the security of Ukraine's grid, in our latest "snippet" of conversation.
Just The Facts: Ukraine is likely to start international flights from one airport in January, the World Bank allocates $750 million to help Ukraine improve its public investment management system and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) said it will lower the costs of its arbitration court for foreign investors involved in reconstruction-related disputes in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin and Zelensky both comment on the notion of a ceasefire.
Here's What They Think: Ukraine's "best hope" is accelerated delivery of US military aid before Donald Trump takes office, considering the country's position in the conflict has recently become increasingly precarious, the Guardian writes in an editorial.
Sober Second Thought: Social media messages by the European Union, Commission and Parliament over the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine followed a uniform strategy but lacked interaction with the mass media, potentially missing out on communications with a large segment of society, according to a study carried out at the University of Madrid.
The Rebuilder's Social: Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko outlines on how she thinks Ukraine can help Europe tackle its key economic challenges. Her deputy, Tetyana Berezhna, outlines her views on how to attract many refugees back, and the UNDP Ukraine opens a modular administrative service centre the Kyiv region to offer more than 240 public services.
Snippets: 33 missiles instead of 2
Dear subscribers,
Ukraine is back in business after a multi-day pause for US elections. In the main news section today, we learn that Ukraine may start international flights in January, the World Bank has allocated $750 million to help Ukraine improve public management, South Korea's construction sector is increasingly focused on the reconstruction of Ukraine on speculation that the war will end soon, and lots more.
Here in Reporter's Notepad, we'll add a bit of nuance to a topic that has dominated headlines in recent months: Ukraine's energy security.
Our experiment last week with "snippets" - little snapshots of conversations that don't quite form a full-blown news story but are interesting nonetheless, seemed to meet some success.
As you may recall, last week's snippets included a revealing conversation between investors wondering whether loans to Ukraine will be repaid, and a candid exchange between executives complaining of slow reform by the government.
Today's snippet, overheard yesterday at the "Reinventing Energy in Ukraine" event held yesterday by the Franco-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, uses some basic math to illustrate one basic piece of logic behind decentralization of Ukraine's grid:
"Take the example of a traditional thermal power unit of 200 megawatts. You basically need two missiles to destroy it. One to destroy the roof and another one to hit the same spot and destroy the rest," said Yulia Burmistenko, director of international relations at DTEK, the largest private player in Ukraine's energy sector.
"If you're talking about wind generation for the same 200 megawatts, your need 33 missiles to hit each and every tower of six megawatts each."
"Secondly, if you destroy the transformer in the traditional situation, it takes right months minimum to replace it, because it's unique," she said. "If you do the same with 200 megawatts of solar, as happened to us this summer, what do you do? You just restore it in three to five days because the transformers are available nearby."
"So renewables are the solution for the future if you have a crazy neighbor."
World Bank to provide $750 million to help Ukraine improve public investment management system
The World Bank will allocate $750 million to support Ukraine in its efforts to improve its public investment management system at the central level and public financial management and fiscal governance at local and regional levels.
The funding will be provided through Supporting Reconstruction through Smart Fiscal Governance (SURGE) project, developed using the World Bank's Program for Results financing instrument, which will be implemented by Ukraine's Finance Ministry, the global lender said in a press release on Thursday.
In addition, the World Bank on Nov. 4 approved a $10 million grant project, the Strengthening Government Capacity for Fiscal Reform Implementation (STRONG), to help Ukraine's government implement the SURGE program, as per the statement.
"It is remarkable to see that despite the devastating damage that Ukraine is experiencing during the third year of the war, all state institutions operate without disruptions, and key state services are provided to citizens in full capacity," said the World Bank Country Director for Eastern Europe Bob Saum.
"As the country moves forward, it will be necessary to develop its capacity for long-term development, prepare for European Union accession, manage public infrastructure projects and public finances effectively, and enhance revenue administration," Saum noted.
Financing for SURGE includes $450 million from the Japan-supported ADVANCE Ukraine trust fund, and a $300 million credit from the International Development Association (IDA) Special Program for Ukraine and Moldova Recovery. The program is results-based financing that can be scaled up as additional funds become available.
Ukraine likely to resume flights from an international airport in January
Ukraine is expected to resume operations at Lviv or Boryspil international airports by the end of January 2025, the Kyiv Independent reported on Thursday, citing Marsh McLennan Senior Partner Crispin Ellison.
It would be easier to provide insurance arrangements for aviation if aircraft start flying from Lviv, but Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky insists that Boryspil be the first to open, Ellison said at the 10th Kyiv International Economic Forum.
Under favorable circumstances, five or six airlines could agree to operate flights from Ukraine in January, according to Ellison.
Ellison noted that the passenger Airbus 320 and Boeing 737, as well as small passenger aircraft, will require insurance covering a sum of at least $750 million.
Ukraine's airspace has been closed since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022. In October, Ukraine's Ministry for Communities and Territories Development presented a roadmap for the partial opening of the country's airspace under martial law, without specifying which airports were considered nor when the reopening could take place.
Lviv international airport is located 6 kilometers from the central city. It is the second-largest airport in Ukraine. Boryspil international airport, some 29 kilometers east of Kyiv, is the country's biggest airport.
New York-headquartered Marsh McLennan, with businesses in insurance brokerage, risk management, reinsurance services, talent management, investment advisory, and management consulting, has been especially active in Ukraine in recent years.
The company was instrumental in developing the Black Sea Unity Facility, which became available in November 2023 and provides affordable insurance to cover grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea in a heightened-risk environment.
Currently, it is developing affordable commercial aviation insurance for flights to and from western Ukraine, among other products, it says on its website.
ICC to cut arbitration costs for investors in Ukraine's reconstruction, works on 2nd Black Sea Grain Initiative
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the world's largest business organization, will lower the costs of its arbitration court for foreign investors involved in reconstruction-related disputes in Ukraine, ICC Secretary General John Denton said.
"The big issue for a foreign investor is clear access to dispute settlement," Denton said Thursday at the Kyiv International Economic Forum, the Kyiv Independent reported. "We want to encourage more investment to support the economic front."
Denton did not disclose specific rates, but the ICC will inform investors who choose this option directly, according to the report.
Currently, the ICC is working on the development of a second Black Sea Grain Initiative, according to Denton.
The ICC helped facilitate the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022 with the UN which allowed Ukraine to export food products through the Black Sea, but Russia pulled out from the initiative in July 2023.
Currently, Ukraine is shipping goods through an alternative corridor in the Black Sea carved out by the military, but Russia has recently targeted vessels, causing safety concerns, the Kyiv Independent noted.
Denton is pushing pressure on the international community from the Global South, particularly Brazil, to persuade Moscow to cooperate with Ukraine, the UN, and Turkey, and agree to a second initiative.
"If you're serious about fighting famine, open the Black Sea. Make certain Ukrainian goods and services actually flow into the world," Denton said, referring to a conversation he had with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva.
EIB approves business investment funding for Ukraine, Armenia, Poland
The European Investment Bank (EIB) said it approved €1.5 billion for the development of semiconductors, energy efficiency lighting, and digital financial inclusion, alongside supporting business investment in Ukraine, Armenia, and Poland.
The EIB provided no more details on the financing, which was announced Wednesday as part of a larger €10.3 billion EU-wide package that also included €4.1 billion funding for energy and water, €1.2 billion for education, health, and transport, as well as a €3 billion facility for agriculture.
Separately, Deputy Head of Ukraine's Office of the President of Ukraine Iryna Mudra met on Thursday with the newly appointed Head of the EIB's Regional Hub for Eastern Europe Kristina Mikulova.
The EIB indicated its willingness to support projects aimed at enhancing Ukraine's energy independence and modernizing essential infrastructure, according to a press release by the Office.
The parties also discussed EIB's involvement in the EU's €50 billion Ukraine Facility program, as per the statement.
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, the EIB has disbursed over €2 billion of financing for emergency repairs of Ukraine's infrastructure.
Putin says he's open to dialogue but Ukraine must remain neutral
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his reelection to the US presidency and said he is ready for dialogue on the war in Ukraine but insisted that the neighboring country must remain neutral as a condition for any peace agreement.
"We are determined to create conditions for a long-term settlement so that Ukraine is an independent, sovereign state, and not an instrument in the hands of third countries, and not used in their interests," Putin told journalists at a meeting in Sochi, as reported by Reuters.
The statement runs counter to Ukraine's key aim to join NATO to gain security guarantees of its Western allies. Putin also appeared to reject another key demand - that Russian forces leave Ukrainian lands.
"The borders of Ukraine should be in accordance with the sovereign decisions of people who live in certain territories and which we call our historical territories," Putin said.
Zelensky rejects talk of ceasefire without 'clear security guarantees'
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the notion of calling a ceasefire without giving his country security guarantees, adding that any quick end to the war would require major concessions that he is unwilling to make.
“Talk of a ceasefire is dangerous when there are no security guarantees for Ukraine – clear, real, ones that we can trust, not merely rhetorical assurances," Zelensky said. "Such a ceasefire prepares the ground for continued occupation of Ukraine and the destruction of our independence and sovereignty.”
Zelensky spoke during a press conference in Budapest, where he was attending the European Political Community summit. The comments came shortly after Hungarian leader Viktor Orban reiterated calls for a ceasefire in the war.
"A simple ceasefire is a model we are hearing about from some leaders here, from Brazil, from China, and importantly, we are definitely hearing it from Russia," Zelensky said. "This is a great model for Russia. A ceasefire and then the rest? We need to clearly understand what ‘the rest’ is."
The re-election of Donald Trump in the US has sparked widespread talk of a ceasefire and an end to the Ukraine war. However, Ukraine has said it wants to be admitted into NATO as a guarantee of security and it wants Russian troops out of the Ukrainian territory they now occupy. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to reject both conditions.
Zelensky calls on businesses to help shape Ukraine's economic strategy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited businesses to take part in the development of an "internal strengthening plan for Ukraine," with a focus on economic growth as a key component.
Speaking on Thursday at the 10th Kyiv International Economic Forum, Zelensky said the plan is about internal resilience and tasks for victory.
"One of the key elements in it will be the economic element, the business element, how we can unleash Ukraine's internal economic power through deregulation, normal competition, the potential of our entrepreneurship, to strengthen Ukraine's sovereignty and our defense against external aggression," he said.
Work on the economic aspect of the plan will be led by Ukraine's Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, according to Zelensky.
In October, Zelensky presented his 'victory plan' to end the war with Russia. In one of the five points in the plan, called "strategic economic potential," Zelensky proposed concluding a special agreement with the US, the European Union, and other partners to jointly protect and invest in Ukraine's critical resources and use their economic potential.
Last month, the World Bank revised downwards its projection for the growth of Ukraine's economy in 2025, to 2% from an earlier estimate of 6.5%, citing the assumption of continued military hostilities.
South Korea's construction sector increasingly focused on Ukraine's rebuilding
South Korean construction companies are increasingly anticipating an early end to the war and the start of Ukraine's reconstruction, following Donald Trump's reelection as US president, Business Korea reported.
"If the Russia-Ukraine war ends and the Ukraine reconstruction project begins in earnest, we expect that domestic construction companies will have expanded opportunities for overseas projects," an unnamed official of a South Korean construction company told Business Korea.
"The domestic construction market recession has lasted longer than expected, so a new breakthrough is needed, and the Ukraine reconstruction project seems to be that breakthrough," he added.
South Korea is actively participating in Ukraine's reconstruction project through public-private cooperation, including roads, housing, and power plants, the report said.
In July 2023, Hyundai Engineering & Construction agreed to rebuild Ukraine’s largest airport, Boryspil International near Kyiv, while conglomerate K-water agreed to help rebuild the Kakhovka dam in Kherson region. In November 2023, Korea National Railway, Korea Railroad Corp, and Hyundai-Rotem agreed to help Ukrainian state-owned rail operator Ukrainian Railways build an express railway to neighboring Poland, among others.
The stock price of Sambu Engineering & Construction, considered a thematic stock for the Ukraine reconstruction in South Korea, surged by about 20%, Business Korea noted.
The Guardian: Ukraine's 'best hope' accelerated delivery of US aid before Trump takes office
Ukraine's "best hope" is accelerated delivery of US military aid before Donald Trump takes office, considering the country's position in the conflict has recently become increasingly precarious, the Guardian wrote in an editorial.
The Biden administration is reportedly working to accelerate the transfer of up to $9 billion in military aid that has been agreed upon but not yet delivered. "This is far from straightforward, not least because weaponry and ammunition are still being produced and because the next president could stop agreed shipments. But it is essential," the Guardian argued.
The Guardian noted that the US military support currently matches the combined contributions of all other donors. While much of the substantial aid from the Biden administration has been directed toward US arms production, future arms sales to Ukraine are not assured, the report said.
Efforts to make the conflict resilient to Trump's influence could be undermined by a potential collapse of Germany's government and the far right's empowerment following Trump's electoral victory, complicating European support for Kyiv.
This situation may deepen doubts among weary Ukrainians about the viability of a solely military resolution and heighten the interest in, or at least acceptance of, a negotiated end to the conflict, according to the Guardian.
Tweets by European Union, Commission and Parliament in year after invasion of Ukraine failed to involve traditional media, study shows
Social media messages by the main European institutions over the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine found a quite uniform messaging strategy but lacked interaction with the mass media, according to a study carried out at the University of Madrid.
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine has marked a further step in the paradigm shift of institutional communication, representing a new moment of crisis in the European order," the researchers said.
"The necessity to communicate the multiple consequences of the conflict and to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people on the one hand, and to explain the humanitarian actions and measures taken by the European executive to mitigate the impact of the war on the other" dominated the content of the main European institutions.
The study, carried out by PhD candidate Raquel Ruiz-Incertis and journalism professor Jorge Tuñón-Navarro, covered a year of communications on X (formerly Twitter) by the European Commission, European Parliament, European Council, and European External Action Service.
"The EU’s efforts have focused on highlighting the problem, condemning it, and showcasing how Brussels is supporting (both materially and symbolically) Zelensky and those affected by the war," they concluded. "In this regard, the institutions have adhered strictly to the expected discourse."
The research showed the communications of the four institutions followed a "parallel narrative" with little variation that reflected "coherence and coordination, whether intentional or not."
However, the researchers warned that the instutions rarely involved conventional media in their conversation, risking leaving out a large portion of the population.
"There is an extremely small—practically non-existent—percentage of links, mentions, or quoted tweets corresponding to national or international media," the study said in its conclusion.
"This fact underscores the pressing need to incorporate greater interaction between European institutions and European journalists into the digital conversation, as this absence could determine the ineffectiveness of many of their communication strategies aimed at citizens."
Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, one of the most prolific social media posters in the Zelensky government, posted on how Ukraine can help Europe tackle its key economic challenges, including access to critical resources, green energy and defense.
Deputy Economy Minister Tetyana Berezhna outlines her views, also presented at the Kyiv International Economy Forum, on how to attract many refugees back, including by emphasizing the ample opportunities available and the unity of the Ukrainian people.
The UNDP Ukraine announces that it opened, in partnership with the European Union and Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation, a modular administrative service centre in Dymer, Kyiv Oblast, to offer more than 240 public services to the community’s residents.
