Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- Partner Contribution: Riley Risk intelligence summary, May 8
Just The Facts:
- Ukraine mulls shifting economy away from dollar toward euro, central bank governor tells Reuters
- EBRD provides €30 million unfunded portfolio risk-sharing facility to Ukrsibbank to support Ukrainian businesses
- Japan and UNEP launch initiative to manage hazardous waste and environmental recovery in Ukraine
- EBRD to partially cover credit risk on ProCredit Bank Ukraine's €70 million in loans to local businesses
Here's What They Think:
- The Guardian: Ukraine's wartime resilience grows but foreign dependence could undermine its strength
- The Washington Post: Trump's art of dealmaking in Ukraine
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine verifies Russian deportation of almost 20,000 Ukrainian children but real number is likely higher, ISW report says
Dear subscribers,
As part of our Partner Program, where we recruit the knowledge and expertise of world-class companies to help investors better understand the challenges, demands and opportunities of the reconstruction of Ukraine, we bring you an exlusive intelligence summary for Riley Risk, the premier security risk advisory firm for complex environments.
To download the complete 19-page report, visit the URN website at
Here's a sampling of the information to expect in the full report:
Riley Risk Weekly Intelligence Summary: Exclusive to URN readers
| Region | Current Risk Level | Change Factor | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | MODERATE | Degrading | Incursion into Sumy Oblast |
| East | HIGH | Degrading | Tactical Disadvantages / Land |
| South | HIGH | Degrading | RU Offensive ZP / KHER |
| West | MODERATE | No Change | Missile / Drone Strikes |
| Energy | Food/Water | Medical | Communications | Transportation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE |
Organizations with operations in the eastern sectors of Ukraine should accelerate contingency planning and review evacuation triggers, as the situation degrades across the eastern regions.
Infrastructure remains generally stable, with occasional power cuts, but Kherson has suffered increased civilian targeting and Pokrovosk and Toretsk face severe pressure, with a high likelihood of territorial changes in 1-3 months.
Western and central regions remain stable for operations.
Critical Risk Zones:
● Kostyantynopil direction – Unstable and Russian forces pushing West.
● Chasiv Yar: High combat activity, likely to fall within 1-2 months
● Kherson City: Increased civilian targeting, daily shelling
● Pokrovsk direction - Highly under threat, but for the moment stabilised
● Sivers’k direction - Future intent of RU forces: Possibly to envelop the surrounding area.
Elevated Risk Sectors:
● Pokrovsk: Russian encirclement attempts ongoing
● Kupyansk: Supply hub under pressure
● Zaporizhzhia: Military buildup, offensive operations have now started
Stable Sectors:
● Western regions: Normal operations possible
● Kharkiv: Static front, limited changes
● Central regions: Routine operations continuing
