Today's Contents
Reporter's Notepad:
- Partner Contribution: Riley Risk intelligence summary, May 8
Just The Facts:
- Ukraine mulls shifting economy away from dollar toward euro, central bank governor tells Reuters
- EBRD provides €30 million unfunded portfolio risk-sharing facility to Ukrsibbank to support Ukrainian businesses
- Japan and UNEP launch initiative to manage hazardous waste and environmental recovery in Ukraine
- EBRD to partially cover credit risk on ProCredit Bank Ukraine's €70 million in loans to local businesses
Here's What They Think:
- The Guardian: Ukraine's wartime resilience grows but foreign dependence could undermine its strength
- The Washington Post: Trump's art of dealmaking in Ukraine
Sober Second Thought:
- Ukraine verifies Russian deportation of almost 20,000 Ukrainian children but real number is likely higher, ISW report says
Dear subscribers,
As part of our Partner Program, where we recruit the knowledge and expertise of world-class companies to help investors better understand the challenges, demands and opportunities of the reconstruction of Ukraine, we bring you an exlusive intelligence summary for Riley Risk, the premier security risk advisory firm for complex environments.
To download the complete 19-page report, visit the URN website at
Here's a sampling of the information to expect in the full report:
Riley Risk Weekly Intelligence Summary: Exclusive to URN readers
| Region | Current Risk Level | Change Factor | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | MODERATE | Degrading | Incursion into Sumy Oblast |
| East | HIGH | Degrading | Tactical Disadvantages / Land |
| South | HIGH | Degrading | RU Offensive ZP / KHER |
| West | MODERATE | No Change | Missile / Drone Strikes |
| Energy | Food/Water | Medical | Communications | Transportation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE | ONLINE |
Organizations with operations in the eastern sectors of Ukraine should accelerate contingency planning and review evacuation triggers, as the situation degrades across the eastern regions.
Infrastructure remains generally stable, with occasional power cuts, but Kherson has suffered increased civilian targeting and Pokrovosk and Toretsk face severe pressure, with a high likelihood of territorial changes in 1-3 months.
Western and central regions remain stable for operations.
Critical Risk Zones:
● Kostyantynopil direction – Unstable and Russian forces pushing West.
● Chasiv Yar: High combat activity, likely to fall within 1-2 months
● Kherson City: Increased civilian targeting, daily shelling
● Pokrovsk direction - Highly under threat, but for the moment stabilised
● Sivers’k direction - Future intent of RU forces: Possibly to envelop the surrounding area.
Elevated Risk Sectors:
● Pokrovsk: Russian encirclement attempts ongoing
● Kupyansk: Supply hub under pressure
● Zaporizhzhia: Military buildup, offensive operations have now started
Stable Sectors:
● Western regions: Normal operations possible
● Kharkiv: Static front, limited changes
● Central regions: Routine operations continuing
Ukraine mulls shifting economy away from dollar toward euro, central bank governor tells Reuters
Ukraine is considering shifting away from the US dollar and aligning its currency more closely to the euro as the country seeks to join the European Union and weather global trade chaos, said Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi.
The central bank may make the euro, instead of the dollar, the reference currency for the hryvnia amid "strengthening of the EU's role in ensuring our defense capabilities, greater volatility in global markets, and the probability of global-trade fragmentation," Pyshnyi told Reuters in emailed remarks.
"This work is complex and requires high-quality, versatile preparation," he told the news agency.
The US dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange market in Ukraine but the share of euro-denominated transactions is increasing, he said. The country is on track to join the EU and is drawing closer to Western allies in the EU as it fights the Russian invasion.
Recent uncertainty in Ukraine's relations with the United States may be further shifting the country away from the dollar, particularly as tariffs cause chaos in global trade.
Pyshnyi added that closer ties have helped boost some investment and consumer activity in Ukraine and could help economic growth over the next two years, but the greatest determinant remains the war.
"A quick end to the war would clearly be a positive scenario with good economic outcomes if it were to incorporate security guarantees for Ukraine," Pyshnyi said. "Nevertheless, it's crucial to acknowledge that the economic benefits of ending the war would likely take time to fully materialize."
EBRD provides €30 million unfunded portfolio risk-sharing facility to Ukrsibbank to support Ukrainian businesses
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is providing an unfunded portfolio risk-sharing facility to BNP Paribas-owned Ukrsibbank to unlock €30 million in new financing for Ukrainian businesses and households amid the ongoing war.
The arrangement will cover up to 50% of Ukrsibbank's credit risk on new subloans across critical sectors including agribusiness, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, transport, logistics, and residential energy projects, the EBRD said in a press release.
Up to 20% of subloans will help Ukrainian SMEs invest in EU-compliant technology and equipment, supported by technical assistance and grants. Another 10% will fund residential energy projects, while at least 70% of all subloans will back green economy initiatives.
Residential sub-borrowers will get technical help and Canadian-funded grants covering up to 20% of energy project costs. Additional incentives will support those affected by the war and those helping reintegrate veterans into the workforce.
The EBRD's facility will be backed by first-loss risk cover funded by France and the European Union under the Ukraine Investment Framework, according to the release.
This is the second time the lender has provided such a facility to Ukrsibbank.
Japan and UNEP launch initiative to manage hazardous waste and environmental recovery in Ukraine
Japan and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) have announced a new round of funding, including a critical environmental recovery initiative in Ukraine, which faces ongoing environmental challenges due to the war.
This is part of a $4 million supplementary grant to UNEP aimed at promoting sustainable development and environmental stewardship globally, UNEP said in a press release.
In Ukraine, UNEP will lead a hazardous waste management initiative, focusing on the sustainable management of war debris containing asbestos, which poses significant environmental and public health risks.
This initiative supports Ukraine's recovery by addressing challenges related to asbestos in damaged buildings, including roofs, fences, and water supply systems. UNEP said it will assess safe management and recycling of asbestos, provide technical support for international safety standards, and collaborate with local authorities and NGOs to enhance awareness and develop legal frameworks for managing asbestos waste.
"Ukraine's sustainable recovery can only be possible if it integrates and promotes the global human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment,” said Pier Carlo Sandei, senior program officer at UNEP Kyiv Office.
"The new initiative funded by the Government of Japan contributes to possessing this right by reducing the exposure of asbestos on Ukraine's population," Sandei added.
EBRD to partially cover credit risk on ProCredit Bank Ukraine's €70 million in loans to local businesses
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will partially cover ProCredit Bank Ukraine (PCBU)'s credit risk on €70 million of new loans for Ukrainian businesses.
Sub loans will be granted to businesses operating in critical industries such as agribusiness, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, transport and logistics, supported by risk cover under an EBRD Resilience and Livelihoods Guarantee, the EBRD said in a press release.
Up to 20% of all subloans covered by the EBRD’s guarantee will finance long-term capital investments for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), enabling them to upgrade their technology and equipment in line with EU standards through the EU4Business-EBRD Credit Line. Eligible sub-borrowers will also receive EU-funded technical assistance and grant support.
Additional investment incentives will be available to borrowers whose assets have been destroyed, lost, or relocated due to the war, as well as those involved in reintegrating veterans into the workforce, according to the release.
This is the fifth portfolio risk-sharing facility that the EBRD has provided to PCBU since the start of the full-scale war in 2022. The lender has already earmarked some €2 billion of financing for Ukrainian borrowers through its portfolio risk-sharing facilities for partner banks in Ukraine.
The Guardian: Ukraine's wartime resilience grows but foreign dependence could undermine its strength
Despite the immense challenges posed by Russia's invasion, Ukraine's wartime state capacity has not only held but strengthened, thanks to increased tax revenue, grassroots fundraising, and effective state spending that has stimulated the broader civilian economy, Luke Cooper, an associate professorial research fellow in international relations at LSE Ideas and the director of PeaceRep's Ukraine program, wrote in an opinion for The Guardian.
However, Ukraine's impressive economic management is heavily dependent on foreign financial aid, making its resilience fundamentally precarious. Cooper also critiques a recent minerals deal with the United States, as it reflects deeper power imbalances and highlights Ukraine's dependency.
The Washington Post: Trump's art of dealmaking in Ukraine
US President Donald Trump's dealmaking strategy is based on flattering Russian leader Vladimir Putin, ignoring international law, and promising to end the war quickly by offering sweeping concessions—such as accepting Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territory and blocking Ukraine from NATO—without Ukrainian involvement, George F. Will, a politics and foreign affairs columnist, wrote in an opinion piece for The Washington Post.
Will argues that Trump treats diplomacy like a real estate transaction, prioritizing optics over substance and appointing unqualified allies to lead peace talks. This approach, he warns, not only weakens America's credibility but also empowers Putin, who has no real incentive to compromise.
Ukraine verifies Russian deportation of almost 20,000 Ukrainian children but real number is likely higher, ISW report says
As of early 2025, Ukraine has verified the deportation of 19,456 children by Russia, though the real number is likely much higher, according to a report from American think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab estimates this figure to be closer to 35,000. Meanwhile, Russian officials, including Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova—wanted by the International Criminal Court—have boasted of accepting up to 700,000 Ukrainian children.
The report says these numbers point to a large-scale operation intended to destroy Ukrainian cultural continuity. International law defines such forcible transfers of children for the purpose of erasing national or ethnic identity as a form of genocide.
According to the report, evidence of the state-driven nature of these crimes is embedded in Russia's legal framework. In May 2022, shortly after the invasion began, Putin signed a decree that simplified the procedure for granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainian children without parental care. This decree effectively legitimized the abduction and assimilation of these children. Russia’s legal system thus enabled the erasure of Ukrainian identity by integrating abducted children into Russian society under the cover of legality.
Russia has housed abducted Ukrainian children in at least 43 camps across its territory, with 32 serving as "re-education" centers. These facilities, some located thousands of kilometers from Ukraine, serve as indoctrination sites, according to the ISW. Children are punished for expressing their Ukrainian identities and are subjected to Kremlin-approved education and "military-patriotic" training. Ukrainian officials have condemned these efforts as attempts to annihilate the national identity—labeling them "death camps" for Ukrainian heritage.
The ISW states that alongside deportation and indoctrination, forced adoptions have further cemented the erasure of Ukrainian identity. Ukraine has confirmed at least 400 such adoptions, but the actual number is likely far higher. Russian officials have actively participated in adopting children from occupied areas, with regional administrations once advertising the availability of over a thousand orphans. These adoptions often involve changing children's names and issuing new Russian documents, making it nearly impossible to trace or reunite them with Ukrainian relatives.
The report concludes that the return of these children is critical to Ukraine's recovery and sovereignty. "A negotiated outcome to the war on any terms but Ukraine's will result in the loss of Ukraine's children, a loss that will be impossible to reverse," it said.
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