Contents
The Reporter's Notepad: Meeting Notes from the recent fruitful AHK Ukraine chat with Yuriy Butsa, plus commentary on the week ahead.
Just The Facts: Ukraine holds its first-ever auction for electricity with Guarantees of Origin; Shah Capital calls on Veon to list Kyivstar, and the US announces a new $400 million military aid package.
Here's What They Think: A major newspaper argues that NATO entry for Ukraine is imperative, while another calls Ukraine's victory plan "pragmatic," and another argues that Putin will demand a high price for peace, and yet another argues that Trump will stand up to Putin where Biden wouldn't.
Sober Second Opinion: Some ecologists are arguing that the Kakhovka dam should not be rebuilt, but rather nature should be allowed to flourish on the disaster site.
The Rebuilder's Social: Energoatom posts on LinkedIn that shelling severed a line to a nuclear power plant, the USAID Economic Resilience Activity (ERA) postrs about several partnerships and Roman Opimakh, director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, outlines sales of E&P licenses so far this year. Plus more.
Meeting Notes
Dear URN Daily subscribers,
URN has published the Meeting Notes file from the AHK Ukraine chat with Yuriy Butsa, Ukraine's government commissioner for Public Debt. See it here.
While URN covered the conversation, Butsa covered a lot of ground and readers interested in the subject will find he said a lot more than a news story can convey. That's the reasoning behind publishing the Meeting Notes series.
This evening (Kyiv time) URN Daily staff will cover an event with officials from the World Bank, IMF and other organizations that also promises to be interesting. See details here. We will get you any news as soon as possible, followed soon after by a Meeting Notes file from that event.
Heads up to Subscribers: URN Daily has asked for an interview with Tetra Tech, and the company has asked for a list of possible questions so they can understand what type of information we're seeking.
This is the chance for subscribers to add a question or two to the list. Just email adam.brown@ukrainerebuildnews.com with a question for Tetra Tech.
Ukraine needs $200 billion in investments over 2025-27 to keep up with EU integration goals, KSE Institute says
Ukraine needs to stimulate an increase in investments to $200 billion, from the currently forecasted $140 billion, over 2025-2027 as well as boost exports of goods and services and ensure budgetary stability to stay on track with EU convergence, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Institute said.
Ukraine's economy will lag behind its convergence to average EU levels for key economic indicators in the coming 5-10 years primarily due to a too-slow pickup in investment and trade, unpredictable external financing, and insufficient productivity gains, KSE Institute said in its Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook published Monday.
KSE Institute also said Ukraine will need additional external financing commitments from bilateral and multilateral partners. Over 2025-2027, a total of $90 billion in assistance is required, compared with the current outlook of $62.5 billion and fixed commitments of only $27 billion.
For 2025, committed external financing amounts to $15 billion compared to a projected fiscal deficit of around $40 billion, leaving a gap of $25 billion to be fulfilled, as per the report.
"We believe that it is impossible for the country to raise these amounts from domestic sources," the KSE Institute stated.
For 2026-27, the combined budget deficit is expected at around $50 billion, but only $12 billion in budgetary assistance from partners is committed currently.
The recently-announced €35 billion macro-financial assistance package by the EU would close the fiscal financing gap partially, but additional funding sources are needed, according to the report.
KSE said that a noticeable fall in foreign grants is already reducing Ukraine's secondary income surplus and is projected to continue doing so in the coming years as partners increasingly shift their support to loans (See chart bellow).
Grants are estimated to reach $11.9 billion and $1.4 billion in 2024-2025 before falling to below $0.5 billion per year in 2026-2027. Strong private transfers from abroad will provide some support, keeping the surplus at elevated levels compared to the period before 2022.
Ukrhydroenergo sells Ukraine's first guarantees of origin for electricity from renewable sources
Ukrainian state hydropower operator Ukrhydroenergo held its first-ever auction of Guarantees of Origin (GOOs) for electricity generated from renewable sources, with 12 companies participating.
Participants bought 28,257 of the 50,000 guarantees, equivalent to 28,257 MWh of clean energy, on offer, with the price starting at UAH 13 ($.031) per 1 MWh, the company said in a communique.
"This auction is the first step toward creating a national market for GOOs, which will promote more transparent and environmentally responsible development of Ukraine's energy sector," the company said.
The auction "opens new opportunities for companies supporting renewable energy sources and actively engaging in global decarbonization initiatives," it added.
The auction comes as Ukraine's Western allies push the government to increasingly adopt decentralized, renewable forms of electricity generation to make the grid less vulnerable to Russian attack and to lower the country's carbon footprint.
US defense secretary visits Kyiv, announces $400 million military aid package
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv on Monday and announced a $400 million military assistance package for Ukraine.
"Now, that is a very real financial commitment," Austin said. "But for anyone who thinks that American leadership is expensive — well, consider the price of American retreat. In the face of aggression, the price of principle is always dwarfed by the cost of capitulation."
The package consists of munitions for rocket systems and artillery, mortar systems and rounds, armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons, the US Department of Defense said in a press release.
Austin pledged unwavering US support for Ukraine amid the war with Russia, noting that Ukraine's security is vital to maintaining peace and stability throughout the world.
Since February 2022, the US has provided more than $59.5 billion in critical assistance including air defense, artillery, armored vehicles, and other critical munitions to Ukraine.
Just last week, the US announced a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday in his evening address to the nation that the US is preparing a separate package for funding the production of Ukrainian drones, amounting to $800 million.
Shareholder Shah Capital urges Veon to list Kyivstar, Bloomberg reports
US-based Shah Capital Management, a shareholder of Veon Ltd, has called on the wireless operator to list Ukraine's biggest mobile company, Kyivstar, and undertake other steps to boost its share price, Bloomberg reported on Monday.
In an Oct. 18 letter seen by Bloomberg, Shah Capital, which owns about 7% of Veon, said Kyivstar should be listed on the Nasdaq, saying it could be "the sole Ukrainian investment theme on the US equity market."
Shah Capital argued that Veon "should trade at a substantially higher valuation compared to its emerging market telecom peers." The company also proposed Veon buy back shares and publicly list its Pakistan unit Jazz or digital financial services provider JazzCash in Karachi or Dubai.
In a statement, Veon acknowledged that its current share price indicates potential for further improvement.
"We are evaluating options to crystallize the value of our businesses and the assets which we own, including through initial public offerings of some of our companies when relevant," Veon said.
Veon is considering a listing for Kyivstar, CEO Kaan Terzioglu told Bloomberg in January. He identified Kyiv, Warsaw and London as potential venues for an IPO as soon as next year. The company is also evaluating an IPO for Jazz and will decide on the move within a year, Terzioglu said in a separate interview with Bloomberg in August.
Veon announced on Monday it started a process to delist from Euronext Amsterdam, resulting in a sole listing on Nasdaq. Earlier this month, Veon said it is moving its headquarters from Amsterdam to Dubai.
Ukraine government invites greater involvement by Turkish firms in reconstruction
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on Monday called for a greater engagement of Turkish companies in the reconstruction of the war-torn country.
Sybiha thanked Turkish firms for their active role in Ukraine's reconstruction efforts and welcomed the expansion of their presence and projects, the foreign ministry said in a press release, following a meeting between Sybiha and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara.
Sybiha said a joint working group has been established, adding that he expects a visit from the Turkish delegation in the near future.
The group is responsible for coordinating work to rebuild facilities of social and economic importance, including roads, bridges, water and electricity infrastructure, hospitals, and schools.
In August 2022, Ukraine and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding allowing Turkish construction firms to take part in the reconstruction of Ukrainian infrastructure.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed in a meeting in New York strengthening investment cooperation and involving Turkey and Turkish companies in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Turkish construction companies are particularly active in Ukraine, led by firms such as Onur Group, and Turkish citizens have opened more businesses in Ukraine since the February 2022 Russian invasion than citizens of any other country.
Ukraine, Hungary mull starting talks on joint customs, border control
Ukraine and Hungary on Monday discussed starting negotiations on drafting an agreement on joint customs and border control, Ukraine's government said in a press release.
During a meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine's Deputy Minister for Restoration Serhiy Derkach and Hungary's Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Levente Magyar agreed that a technical meeting would be held soon to agree on a joint plan and priority border development projects.
The main topics of the talks between Derkach and Magyar were the development of automobile checkpoints, the development of railway communication, and joint participation in the European Union's program for infrastructure investments Connecting Europe Facility, as per the statement.
"Our first priority is to allow empty trucks to pass through the Luzhanka-Beregsurány checkpoint," Derkach said. "It will help relieve the only cargo checkpoint, Chop-Záhony."
Derkach noted that Ukraine fulfilled all necessary conditions for this, including upgrading roads at the checkpoint and carrying out all the ratification procedures.
"We expect that soon the Hungarian side will also ratify the relevant decision and empty trucks will be able to cross the Luzhanka. The ratification of the amendments to the relevant Agreement will also allow us to open the Velyka Palad-Nagyhódos checkpoint," the deputy minister stated.
In April, Ukraine and Hungary agreed to open the Velyka Palad-Nagyhódos checkpoint for light motor vehicles and allow the movement of empty trucks weighing more than 7.5 tonnes through the Luzhanka-Beregsurány checkpoint.
Magyar said on Monday that Hungary's priority in cooperation with Ukraine is to develop the border and increase its capacity. He expressed confidence that the amendments would soon be ratified, allowing for the launch of the Luzhanka border crossing and the opening of the Velyka Palad border crossing.
Only NATO can secure a ‘West German’ future for Ukraine
The US must commit to including Ukraine in NATO, with the mutual defence provisions covering the parts of the country that Kyiv controls, as the "crucial next move" toward implementing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's victory plan, writes Timothy Garton Ash in the Financial Times.
The historian and Oxford professor notes that the scenario is often called the "West German solution," referring to post-WWII politics, but he notes the differences. Unlike Germany's agreed division, Ukraine's borders are disputed, and Russian-occupied territories face severe Russification, he writes.
The article says Ukraine’s security is crucial for its reconstruction, return of displaced citizens, and integration into the European Union. Without NATO's security umbrella, investment and stability are unlikely to follow. He says a possible compromise, in which Ukraine accepts some territorial losses in exchange for EU and NATO membership, remains a difficult prospect for many Ukrainians.
He adds that the upcoming US presidential election could significantly impact this trajectory, with increased military aid needed to stabilize Ukraine’s frontlines. The stakes are high, not just for Ukraine, but for global security, including China’s ambitions in Taiwan. A weakened Ukraine, the author warns, could embolden Russia and other adversaries.
Trump is the American leader Ukrainians need
In The Hill, Ukrainian-British businessman Alexander Temerko argues that, while US presidential candidate Donald Trump would take a stronger stance on the Ukraine issue than Kamala Harris or current President Joe Biden, saving Ukraine from Russian domination.
"Biden’s language has been about not humiliating Russia — 'de-escalation' and 'off-ramps,' even as Russian President Vladimir Putin's brutal authoritarian regime advanced on Severodonetsk, then Bakhmut, then Vuhledar, and now Pokrovsk," Temerko writes. "Next year it will be Kharkiv, and eventually Kyiv."
"But the other candidate in the US election is a different kind of man from Biden and Harris: A man of action and business, and who understands the value of strength. I believe Donald Trump will be the catalyst for change that Ukraine needs, and for that matter, for Europe and the whole world. Trump would not let Russia swallow Ukraine.
Ukraine’s defense minister outlines Kyiv’s ‘victory plan’
Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, after an interview with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, said Ukraine's current "victory plan" sounds like a "pragmatic" solution, but it hinges on joining NATO.
"As I listened, it sounded to me like a strategy for forcing negotiations with Putin rather than a military plan for retaking all of Russian-occupied territory," Ignatius wrote. "That would be a pragmatic step for Ukraine."
However, Ignatius said Ukraine's window to join NATO is closing as Donald Trump, if he wins the US presidential elections next month, may reject the option.
"Ukraine probably has more at stake in this election than any foreign country, given former president Donald Trump’s open disdain for Ukraine’s cause and his claims that he would make a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as he was elected," Ignatius wrotes. "Trump’s talk may be political rhetoric, but Ukraine knows that its window of US support could close in several months."
Putin’s Rising Price for Peace in Ukraine
In an opinion piece, The Wall Street Journal argues that the partnership between Germany and the is faltering as Russia’s invasion continues, with Putin gaining ground despite heavy sanctions and Western support for Ukraine.
The article suggests that the West’s initial optimism about defeating Russia has waned, with Putin’s regime growing stronger due to alliances with North Korea, China, and Iran.
US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may now seek a negotiated peace to end the war, the article states.
"What the Scholz and Biden teams now want is an off-ramp from Mr. Putin," the WSJ writes. "A compromise peace in which Ukraine surrenders territory to Russia but gains NATO and European Union membership would, they hope in Washington and Berlin, be acceptable to Kyiv and bring a not-too-humiliating end to a costly and dangerous war."
"Mr. Putin, unfortunately, isn’t in the business of offering easy off-ramps," it concludes. "Sensing Western war-weariness and Ukrainian weakness, he will probably demand a high price for peace. His territorial demands will likely be large. And letting Ukraine join NATO is not on his to-do list."
Yale Environment 360: Will Nature Be Allowed to Thrive When War Ends?
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in 2023 has led to an unanticipated natural resurgence and some environmentalists want the site left that way, Yale Environment 360 writes.
"The bed of the former reservoir is rapidly rewilding, with extensive thickets of native willow trees growing," according to the article. "The country’s ecologists are calling for plans for a new dam to be dropped, in favor of nurturing the ecological renewal."
It says environmentalists "argue that some of Ukraine’s short-term wartime environmental catastrophes — on rivers, in forests, and across the country’s precious steppe grasslands — can be turned into long-term ecological gains."
The article's author says this “war-wilding” phenomenon presents a unique opportunity for Ukraine to prioritize environmental restoration as part of its post-war recovery. This would align with the country’s ambition to join the European Union, which has made large-scale ecological restoration a key priority, the article argues.
The article says Ukraine faces a critical choice: either to rebuild using outdated Soviet infrastructure or to embrace this moment to become a beacon of ecological sustainability in Europe.
Mikhail Shuranov, public relations head of Neqsol in Ukraine, posted that "key business gaps" for investors in Ukraine's mining sector include "outdated and incomplete geological information, war-related risks, and the need to develop production that aligns with global standards."
Roman Opimakh, director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, posts about meeting "business, foreign embassies and authorities" at an event organized by the European Business Association about mining, adding that the sale of exploration and production licenses have exceeded 3 billion hryvnias ($72.4 million) so far this year.
Shelling disconnected a power line linking the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine's grid, leaving the plant with just one line, bringing the plant closer to the loss of an external power supply for cooling and closer to a "nuclear and radiation accident," posted Ukrainian state nuclear power operator Energoatom.
USAID Economic Resilience Activity (ERA), posted that it has formed partnerships with the Association Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, the Ukrainian Grain Association, and Spike Marketing LLC, with plans to participate in international conferences, invite key buyers to visit Ukraine, and improve the skills of employees of Ukrainian companies in the agricultural sector.
The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), which recently opened an office in Kyiv, noted that it organized a Ukraine pavilion at Foodex Japan 2024, one of the largest food exhibitions in Asia, earlier this year. "The Ukrainian pavilion featured 10 Ukrainian export companies and 3 Japanese companies dealing with Ukrainian food products," it said.
Pierre Heilbronn, France's special envoy to the reconstruction of Ukraine, publicly thanked French companies that are willing to invest in Ukraine before the war ends and outlined some of the incentives to companies that join them, linking to media stories about the early investors.
Roman Sheremeta, board member and founding rector of American University Kyiv, posted an infographic showing Denmark and Sweden have given military aid to Ukraine bigger than their national defense budgets.
