Contents
The Reporter's Notepad: Social media posts, business announcements and even political discourse slow to a crawl, even as far away as Ukraine, as US voters head to the polls in an unusually divisive election.
Just The Facts: Germany announces another €200 million in aid to help Ukrainians face a cold winter, survey shows 70% of members of the Ukraine-based European Business Association plan to invest in Ukraine even with the war still ongoing, and the USAID Competitive Economy Program in Ukraine announces a job retraining program to help Ukraine cope with the labor crunch.
Here's What They Think: The New York Times says Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, are experimenting with ways to gain the support of Donald Trump if he wins the election, emphasising that defending Ukraine is in America’s economic interests since his country “is rich in natural resources, including critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars.”
Sober Second Thought: The percentage of Ukrainians who say they are willing to bear the burdens of war indefinitely in order to win dropped sharply over the past eight months, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
The Rebuilder's Social: The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine announced that exports in October rose 18.7% on year in October to $3.8 billion worth of goods, Ukrainian law firm Sayenko Kharenko said it served as legal counsel in Ukraine to the government of Canada for a 10-year concessional CAD 400 million loan to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, announces the online discussion Nov 7 on the poultry trade between Ukraine and the EU.
The election slowdown
Dear URN Daily readers,
The Ukraine news cycle is at a crawl as voters head to the polls in the US presidential election.
Although the actual war proceeds apace, the conference circuit has nearly paused, businesses are holding off on announcements, and the executives URN Daily has contacted in recent days have postponed interviews and chats until after the election.
Today's edition of URN Daily weighs in at about 2,000 words, compared with the normal 3,000-3,500. We expect this slow pace to continue until Nov 7, European time, when URN Daily attends several events, as outlined on our Events Calendar.
After that, we have several more interviews lined up, mostly in the construction and engineering space, followed by a trip next week to Warsaw for the Rebuild Ukraine event on Nov 13 and 14.
Hope to see many of you there!
Germany to boost winter aid for Ukraine by €200 million, foreign minister announces in trip to Kyiv
Germany will increase winter emergency aid for Ukraine by €200 million, the country's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Monday during a visit to Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir "Putin wants Ukrainians to freeze in the dark in sub-zero temperatures," Baerbock said on social media forum X. "But energy is also kept running with German help. We are also increasing our winter emergency aid by 200 million euros. Every warm home in Ukraine thwarts Putin's plan for weaponising the cold."
On her arrival to Kyiv, Baerbock noted that Germany had already recently announced a €170 million package for emergency energy assistance to Ukraine.
She also called on allies to help Ukraine defend its airspace and fend off missile and drone attacks for prevent further deterioration of the country's energy grid and to ensure rebuild facilities are not destroyed again.
"A functioning power plant, a new solar installation or a repaired power line are only of any use if they are not defenceless against the next air raid.," she said. "The best protection is to strengthen Ukraine's air defence. That is real defence of life."
70% of EBA member companies plan to invest in Ukraine despite war, CEO survey shows
The latest edition of the 'Ukraine's Investment Attractiveness Index' survey, conducted by Ukraine's European Business Association (EBA), revealed that 70% of polled companies plan to invest in the country despite the war.
In 2024, the integral score of the Index slightly rose, to 2.49 from 2.44 out of 5 in the year before, the EBA said in a press release on Monday.
The proportion of business leaders viewing Ukraine's investment climate as unfavorable has dropped to 79% this year from 84% in 2023, with 20% still describing it as extremely unfavorable.
Perceptions of investment climate trends remain similar to last year. Some 49% of respondents feel the investment climate has deteriorated, 39% see no notable changes, and 12% believe it has improved.
The share of companies already active in Ukraine and planning to continue investing, despite the ongoing war, has risen to 70% from 57% last year. However, only 17% think it would be advantageous for new investors to enter Ukraine, a decrease from 32% in 2023.
Over the next six months, 49% of CEOs anticipate further deterioration in Ukraine's investment climate, 33% expect no change, and 18% are hopeful for improvement. The outlook for their own sectors is similar: 44% foresee a decline, 43% predict stability, and 13% expect improvements.
Eighty CEOs of the largest international and Ukrainian companies participated in the survey. Of these, 39% represent medium-sized businesses, 38% large businesses, and 23% small businesses.
The EBA has been conducting the 'Ukraine's Investment Attractiveness Index' survey since 2008. The Index has never reached the positive zone (above 4 points).
USAID CEP launches $1.8 million program to upskill, reskill Ukrainians
The USAID Competitive Economy Program in Ukraine (USAID CEP) launched a $1.8 million initiative aimed at supporting the upskilling and reskilling of Ukrainians to address the needs of the labor market.
The initiative will focus on young people, veterans, the disabled, and internally displaced persons (IDPs), as well as training women to work in normally male-dominated sectors, USAID CEP said Monday in a post on LinkedIn.
The program will prioritize upskilling and reskilling in sectors critical to Ukraine's recovery, such as construction and logistics, as per the statement.
The initiative consists of eight components, each with a budget ceiling of $230,000, and will run from Nov 2024 to June 30, 2025. It will be implemented in partnership with Ukraine's Economy Ministry, USAID CEP said.
Few Polish firms follow through on investment interest in Ukraine: Only 1 in 10 open businesses
Three hundred Polish companies set up businesses in Ukraine in 2023, while 3,000 of them had expressed interest in investing in the war-torn country, the Polish daily Puls Biznesu reported.
The ongoing conflict restricts broader Polish business involvement due to security concerns, the report said. In contrast, Ukrainians have established 25,000 sole proprietorships in Poland, boosting bilateral trade ties.
Karol Kubica from the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH) told Puls Biznesu that rebuilding Ukraine will involve modern technologies and European standards, creating opportunities for Polish firms.
In September, the Polish government envoy for Ukraine's reconstruction, Paweł Kowal, said that more than 3,000 Polish companies had applied to take part in the post-war rebuilding of Ukraine.
Poland is poised to play a significant role in Ukraine's reconstruction following the UN's announcement last September of plans to establish a UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) in Warsaw to support recovery efforts.
Earlier this year, a subsidiary UNOPS office was announced for Rzeszów, a southeastern Polish city located about 100 km from the Ukrainian border.
New York Times: Trump or Harris? For Ukraine, Two Very Different Futures Loom.
"Ukraine is bracing for the U.S. elections on Tuesday that will almost certainly shape the course of the country in profoundly different ways, depending on who wins the White House," The New York Times writes in an opinion piece.
The article says Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, are experimenting with ways to appeal to Donald Trump to gain his support if he wins the election, emphasizing that defending Ukraine is in America’s economic interests since his country “is rich in natural resources, including critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars.”
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is "seen as more predictable and likely to pursue policies similar to the Biden administration’s, which presents a different set of challenges for Kyiv," the newspaper writes.
However, "many Ukrainians believe that the Biden administration has been cowed by fear of a direct confrontation with Moscow, leading to an overly cautious and slow response that ultimately consigns them to a slow defeat."
Number of Ukrainians willing to endure war 'as long as it takes' has dropped for first time since invasion, survey shows
The percentage of Ukrainians who say they are willing to bear the burdens of war indefinitely in order to win dropped sharply over the past eight months, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
A survey in October showed 63% of Ukrainians supported continuing the war "for as long as it takes," down from 73% who gave the same answer in a February survey. The figures marked the first drop since the pollsters started asking the question in May of 2022, three months after the full-scale Russian invasion.
At the same time, the percentage of Ukrainian who answered that it was "difficult to say" how long they would support the war tripled to 12% from 4%, and the percentage willing to wait one year doubled to 6% from 3%.
The drop in the number of people willing to wait indefinitely was particularly pronounced in the parts of the country closes to the fighting, the survey data shows.
In the east, where the fighting is heaviest, the proportion dropped to 38% from 70% and in the south it fell to 50% from 68%. In the west of the country, the region least directly affected by the war, the number fell to 71% from 79% and it declined to 70% from 72% in the center of the country.
The pollsters also asked respondents about their impressions of Russia's reserves of money, people, weapons and equipment to continue the war.
The number of respondents who say Russia "still has a significant stock of resources" dropped to 47% in the latest survey from 49% in a survey a year ago. At the same time, the number of people who say Russia is depleting its reserves and the war will end with terms favorable to Ukraine rose to 46% from 43%.
KIIS pollsters interviewed 989 people between Sept 20 and Oct 3 for the latest survey.
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine announced that exports in October rose 18.7% on year in October to $3.8 billion worth of goods, including $447 million worth of sunflower, safflower or cottonseed oil, $364 million worth of corn, $318 million worth of wheat and $260 million worth of soybeans.
Ukrainian law firm Sayenko Kharenko said it served as legal counsel in Ukraine to the government of Canada for a 10-year concessional CAD 400 million loan to Ukraine, provided through the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Multi-Donor Administered Account.
Alex Lissitsa, president of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, announces the online discussion Nov 7 on the poultry trade between Ukraine and the EU, with speakers including Paul-Henri Lava, deputy secretary general of the European Association of Poultry Processors and Taras Vysotskyi, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine.
The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine recaps 10 months of domestic debt issuance, with UAH 500 billion of domestic debt issued between January and October of 2024 has already reached UAH 500 billion ($12 billion).